Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater

Breakdown · CBJ at MIN

Blue Jackets pull away from the Wild

FinalSat, Oct 11

CBJColumbus Blue Jackets7 MINMinnesota Wild4

The verdict · stolen

The Blue Jackets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.57–4.77 and won anyway.

CBJ 7 · MIN 4

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:43 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus stole one. Minnesota dominated the expected-goals battle (4.77–3.57, 57% xG), out-shot the Blue Jackets 52–32, and lost 7–4 anyway. The odds caught up with the Wild's goaltending.

The goaltending split decided it. E. Merzlikins saved at 0.923, 0.77 above expectation. F. Gustavsson saved at 0.806, 2.43 below expectation. One played like a star, the other did not.

On the rush, the imbalance widened. Columbus converted at six goals on 29 chances versus Minnesota's two on 43. Even Minnesota's power play—4 goals on 27 shots (2.28 xG)—couldn't bridge a gap that big. High-danger play was a wash (6–6), but Columbus punched above its weight in low-danger territory, scoring three times from spots that shouldn't produce goals. Minnesota created six rebound opportunities and converted one. The variance was too steep.

Boone Jenner's wrist shot from the top of the circles (18:34, third) was the turning point: symbolic of Columbus's night, a moment the scoreboard would eventually reflect.

Three Stars

M. Boldy (MIN)—1G, 2A in 25:24
Z. Werenski (CBJ)—1G, 2A in 25:20
K. Kaprizov (MIN)—2G, 1A in 24:13

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 11

CBJ

MIN

Blue Jackets pull away from the Wild

Chances 3.6 – 4.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Wild deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

CBJ

3.57

MIN

4.77

43% of the chances57%

The board read CBJ 7, MIN 4. The chances read CBJ 3.6, MIN 4.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

CBJ

+3.4

goals above expected

CBJ3.57 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

MIN4.77 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

The Blue Jackets scored 3.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 02:29CBJM. Wood1–0
P2 00:07CBJK. Marchenko2–0
P2 06:18MINM. BoldyPP2–1
P2 08:24MINK. KaprizovPP2–2
P2 18:48CBJK. Marchenko3–2
P3 01:11CBJZ. Werenski4–2
P3 03:01CBJK. MarchenkoPP5–2

+4 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

CBJ

44 shots

Final

113 shots

MIN

69 shots

CBJ MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 7 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

CBJMIN

2 / 6

1.51 xG

High danger

3 / 6

1.62 xG

2 / 12

1.25 xG

Medium

1 / 18

1.91 xG

3 / 47

0.81 xG

Low

0 / 62

1.25 xG

The Blue Jackets buried 2 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

E. Merzlikins

+0.8

CBJ · 48/52

F. Gustavsson

−2.4

MIN · 25/31

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets pull away from the Wild

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–14

02:29CBJM. Wood(Z. Aston-Reese)1–0

2ndshots 10–20

00:07CBJK. Marchenko(D. Voronkov, I. Provorov)2–0
06:18MINM. Boldypower play(J. Eriksson Ek, K. Kaprizov)2–1
08:24MINK. Kaprizovpower play(M. Boldy, V. Tarasenko)2–2
18:48CBJK. Marchenko(D. Voronkov, Z. Werenski)3–2

3rdshots 13–18

01:11CBJZ. Werenski(A. Fantilli, C. Sillinger)4–2
03:01CBJK. Marchenkopower play(Z. Werenski, B. Jenner)5–2
09:54MINZ. Buiumpower play(J. Eriksson Ek, M. Boldy)5–3
10:47CBJA. Fantilli(B. Jenner)6–3
15:49MINK. Kaprizovpower play(M. Rossi, Z. Buium)6–4
18:34CBJB. Jennerempty net(C. Coyle)7–4

score reads CBJ–MIN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.57

CBJ chances

Goals their shots were worth

+3.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.061

CBJ puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

43.0%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.57Expected goals4.77

MIN 57% of the chance quality

32Shots on goal52

6High-danger chances6

65All attempts (Corsi)86

Adjusted for score: CBJ 38% · MIN 62%

Faceoffs · MIN won64%off29%neu25%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

CBJ2 / 6 · 1.51 xG

MIN3 / 6 · 1.62 xG

Medium dangermid-range

CBJ2 / 12 · 1.25 xG

MIN1 / 18 · 1.91 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

CBJ3 / 47 · 0.81 xG

MIN0 / 62 · 1.25 xG

CBJ went 3-for-47 from low danger on 0.81 expected goals — 2.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

CBJ

7 G · 3.57 xG · +3.4

MIN

4 G · 4.77 xG · -0.8

012345678

CBJ finished +3.4 against expected, MIN -0.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

CBJ

WRIST4/33

SNAP0/1

TIP IN0/2

SLAP2/5

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED1/2

BAT0/0

OTHER0/21

MIN

WRIST1/48

SNAP2/8

TIP IN1/6

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/3

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/1

OTHER0/17

CBJ

MIN

Off the rush

6 G on 29

2.59 xG

2 G on 43

3.07 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 4

0.55 xG

1 G on 6

1.02 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 4-for-33, MIN 1-for-48. CBJ scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

E. Merzlikins

CBJ · 48/52 · .923

+0.8

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/61.6-1.4

Medium1/181.9+0.9

Low0/621.3+1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

F. Gustavsson

MIN · 25/31 · .806

-2.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/61.5-0.5

Medium2/121.3-0.8

Low3/470.8-2.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

113 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

CBJ

44 shots

Final

113 shots

MIN

69 shots

CBJ MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Boldy

#12 · L · MIN

1 G · 2 A · 5 SOG · 25:24 on ice · -3

Z. Werenski

#8 · D · CBJ

1 G · 2 A · 7 SOG · 25:20 on ice · +4

K. Kaprizov

#97 · L · MIN

2 G · 1 A · 11 SOG · 24:13 on ice · -3

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Oct 11

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 1:54 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a CBJ 3.1 - 3.4 MIN game with the Wild at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Keys to the game

Shutdown Assignment: Wild. Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Shutdown Assignment: Blue Jackets. Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)
Boone Jenner drives the Blue Jackets offense. Boone Jenner: 11G 21A, 0.98 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals.

Season 5v5 Numbers

Metric	CBJ	MIN
xG%	50.0%	52.0%
Corsi%	51.1%	48.5%
PDO	1.003	1.008

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Players to Watch

CBJ

Boone Jenner — 0.98 xG/60, 11G 21A, 2 HD goals, 9.6% shooting
Mathieu Olivier — 0.89 xG/60, 12G 9A, 1 HD goals, 13.3% shooting

MIN

Matt Boldy — 0.89 xG/60, 22G 18A, 5 HD goals, 13.7% shooting
Robby Fabbri — 0.88 xG/60, 2G 3A, 1 HD goals, 6.9% shooting

Key Matchups

CBJ

Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Watch Mathieu Olivier (12G, 13.3% shooting)

MIN

Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)
Watch Robby Fabbri (2G, 6.9% shooting)

Tactical Notes

CBJ: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
CBJ defensive weak link: Conor Garland
MIN: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
MIN defensive weak link: Matt Kiersted

One Thing to Watch

Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 54%

54%

MIN

Model favorite

46%

54%

CBJ50MIN

MIN by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CBJ 3.1–3.4 MIN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

CBJ← edge

edge →MIN

50.0%52.0%

51.1%48.5%

3.143.27

3.143.02

3.003.27

3.062.87

1.0031.008

MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.008) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · No games yet

CBJ

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

MIN

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

1.003

CBJ PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.008

MIN PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICALMIN

Shutdown Assignment: Wild

Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

TACTICALCBJ

Shutdown Assignment: Blue Jackets

Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)

WARNINGCBJ

Exploitable minutes: Conor Garland

Conor Garland is on ice for 2.93 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Conor Garland's shifts with the top line.

WARNINGMIN

Exploitable minutes: Matt Kiersted

Matt Kiersted is on ice for 3.56 xGA/60 and 7 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Matt Kiersted's shifts with the top line.

Things to watch

Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

CBJ

Boone Jenner11G 21A

0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh

Mathieu Olivier12G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh

MIN

Matt Boldy22G 18A

0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Robby Fabbri2G 3A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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