Columbus stole one. Minnesota dominated the expected-goals battle (4.77–3.57, 57% xG), out-shot the Blue Jackets 52–32, and lost 7–4 anyway. The odds caught up with the Wild's goaltending.

The goaltending split decided it. E. Merzlikins saved at 0.923, 0.77 above expectation. F. Gustavsson saved at 0.806, 2.43 below expectation. One played like a star, the other did not.

On the rush, the imbalance widened. Columbus converted at six goals on 29 chances versus Minnesota's two on 43. Even Minnesota's power play—4 goals on 27 shots (2.28 xG)—couldn't bridge a gap that big. High-danger play was a wash (6–6), but Columbus punched above its weight in low-danger territory, scoring three times from spots that shouldn't produce goals. Minnesota created six rebound opportunities and converted one. The variance was too steep.

Boone Jenner's wrist shot from the top of the circles (18:34, third) was the turning point: symbolic of Columbus's night, a moment the scoreboard would eventually reflect.

Three Stars

• M. Boldy (MIN)—1G, 2A in 25:24
• Z. Werenski (CBJ)—1G, 2A in 25:20
• K. Kaprizov (MIN)—2G, 1A in 24:13

The model sees this as essentially a toss-up: a 2.5 to 2.6 goal differential favoring Minnesota, with the Wild projected at 52% win probability. This is pick'em territory.

Minnesota arrives hotter, posting a 4-2-1 record over their last 10 games. Columbus has struggled lately, sitting at minus-5 goal differential across that same span. But the underlying talent lines are remarkably even — both teams generate 52.0% expected goals, though Columbus's Corsi at 51.0% suggests they'll control more puck possession than Minnesota's 48.0%.

On paper, Boone Jenner is Columbus's offensive engine. He's produced at 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes with 11 goals and 21 assists, backed by a 9.6% shooting percentage and 2 high-danger goals. Mathieu Olivier, who'd normally pair as a complementary scorer at 0.89 xG/60 with 12 goals and 9 assists, is day-to-day with an upper-body injury and likely unavailable.

Minnesota counters with Hunter Haight, who's generated 1.23 expected goals per 60 minutes — the standout rate in this matchup — though he's converted that into just 1 goal and 1 assist on 8.3% shooting. Matt Boldy is the safer bet: 0.89 xG/60 with a 13.7% shooting percentage, 22 goals, 18 assists, and 5 high-danger goals.

Both teams have matching PDO values (Columbus 1.003, Minnesota 1.007) — they're shooting at roughly league-average rates. Columbus's shot dominance (51.0% Corsi) matches Minnesota's recent dominance (4-2-1 in last 10), while expected goals are perfectly even at 52.0%. F. Gustavsson and J. Greaves, both on back-to-backs, become the deciding factor — whichever is fresher will matter most.

Three Things to Watch

• Columbus drives Corsi at 51.0% — expect a territorial tilt favoring the Blue Jackets.
• F. Gustavsson is on a back-to-back for Minnesota — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
• J. Greaves is on a back-to-back for Columbus — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.