Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater

Breakdown · NJD at CBJ

Devils hold off the Blue Jackets

FinalMon, Oct 13

NJDNew Jersey Devils3 CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2

The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NJD 3 · CBJ 2

◆ By the ModelJun 16, 2:37 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus dominated the shot ledger—54 percent of attempts (33-28 on goal)—yet lost. This scoreline was not a variance coin flip but a true win for New Jersey's offense.

The Blue Jackets' 3.32 expected goals trailed New Jersey's 3.88—a gap rooted entirely in shot quality. New Jersey's 0.069 expected goals per attempt beat Columbus's 0.047. High-danger chances split even more severely: New Jersey five, Columbus one. J. Markstrom (NJD) stopped 2.3 goals above expected, and J. Greaves (CBJ) saved 1.88. J. Allen (NJD) was 1.41 above expected.

The Blue Jackets underperformed their xG by 1.32 goals. New Jersey underperformed by 0.88. But neither team's shot variance decided the game—New Jersey's superior shot quality and clinical finishing did. Dmitri Voronkov's doorstep poke in the third period (19:39) clinched it.

D. Mercer delivered 2 goals in 16:35. New Jersey's power play proved decisive: two goals on seven attempts, 0.57 expected goals generated.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 13

NJD

CBJ

Devils hold off the Blue Jackets

Chances 3.9 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

3.88

CBJ

3.32

54% of the chances46%

The board read NJD 3, CBJ 2. The chances read NJD 3.9, CBJ 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NJD

−0.9

goals above expected

NJD3.88 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

CBJ3.32 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 15:47NJDT. MeierPP1–0
P2 08:49CBJK. Marchenko1–1
P2 11:09NJDD. MercerPP2–1
P3 19:03NJDD. MercerEN3–1
P3 19:39CBJD. VoronkovPP3–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

43 shots

Final

92 shots

CBJ

49 shots

NJD CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDCBJ

1 / 5

1.81 xG

High danger

0 / 1

0.22 xG

1 / 13

1.47 xG

Medium

2 / 23

2.39 xG

1 / 38

0.60 xG

Low

0 / 46

0.71 xG

High-danger looks: NJD 1 of 5, CBJ 0 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Markstrom

+2.3

NJD · 8/9

J. Allen

+2.3

NJD · 23/24

+1 more on the full breakdown

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Devils hold off the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–16

15:47NJDT. Meierpower play(J. Hughes, J. Bratt)1–0

2ndshots 11–8

08:49CBJK. Marchenko1–1
11:09NJDD. Mercerpower play(A. Gritsyuk, O. Palat)2–1

3rdshots 9–9

19:03NJDD. Mercerempty net(N. Hischier, B. Dillon)3–1
19:39CBJD. Voronkovpower play(I. Provorov)3–2

score reads NJD–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.88

NJD chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.9

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.025

NJD puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.4%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.88Expected goals3.32

NJD 54% of the chance quality

28Shots on goal33

5High-danger chances1

56All attempts (Corsi)70

Adjusted for score: NJD 42% · CBJ 58%

Faceoffs · CBJ won65%off46%neu56%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD1 / 5 · 1.81 xG

CBJ0 / 1 · 0.22 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD1 / 13 · 1.47 xG

CBJ2 / 23 · 2.39 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD1 / 38 · 0.60 xG

CBJ0 / 46 · 0.71 xG

NJD went 1-for-5 from high danger on 1.81 expected goals — 0.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

3 G · 3.88 xG · -0.9

CBJ

2 G · 3.32 xG · -1.3

012345

NJD finished -0.9 against expected, CBJ -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

WRIST2/24

SNAP0/9

SLAP1/2

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/5

BAT0/0

POKE0/0

OTHER0/13

CBJ

WRIST1/21

SNAP0/14

SLAP0/6

BACKHAND0/4

TIP IN0/1

BAT0/2

POKE1/1

OTHER0/21

NJD

CBJ

Off the rush

1 G on 21

2.04 xG

1 G on 26

1.91 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 0

0.00 xG

1 G on 5

0.74 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NJD went 2-for-24, CBJ 1-for-21.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Markstrom

NJD · 8/9 · .889

+2.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.2+0.2

Medium2/232.4+0.4

Low0/460.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Allen

NJD · 23/24 · .958

+2.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/10.2+0.2

Medium2/232.4+0.4

Low0/460.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves

CBJ · 25/27 · .926

+1.9

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/51.8+0.8

Medium1/131.5+0.5

Low1/380.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

92 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

43 shots

Final

92 shots

CBJ

49 shots

NJD CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

D. Mercer

#91 · C · —

2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 16:35 on ice · +1

K. Marchenko

#86 · R · —

1 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 24:24 on ice

I. Provorov

#9 · D · —

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 21:05 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Oct 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 2:18 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 3.1 - 3.3 goal game with Columbus at 52% win probability — a pick'em with the slimmest margin you'll find.

Season 5v5 rates explain the closeness. New Jersey's 50.7% xG% and 51.3% Corsi% track almost identically with Columbus's 50.0% xG% and 51.1% Corsi%. The Devils are running at 0.971 PDO — cold by five points — while the Blue Jackets sit at 1.003 PDO. That split matters: it means New Jersey's underlying luck is due for correction upward, and Columbus may be vulnerable if its elevated scoring regresses to normal.

Timo Meier is the Devils' engine. At 1.08 xG/60 with 13 goals and 15 assists, he owns 3 high-danger goals and a 6.7% shooting rate. Columbus's assignment is to neutralize him. Jack Hughes provides secondary offense at 0.88 xG/60 with 18 goals and 17 assists, but his shooting rate of 11.5% masks a thin high-danger threat — just 1 high-danger goal. He's scoring on volume, not proximity.

Boone Jenner is Columbus's answer. His 0.98 xG/60, 11 goals and 21 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 9.6% shooting rate make him New Jersey's shutdown focus. Mathieu Olivier operates a tier below in secondary duty: 0.89 xG/60, 12 goals and 9 assists, 1 high-danger goal, 13.3% shooting rate. He's a volume scorer; his elevated shooting percentage hints at fortune.

The PDO divergence is the game within the game. New Jersey's deficit suggests regression toward mean — a team due to run hotter. Columbus's inflated rate suggests risk — a team whose luck may snap. Both clubs generate offense at expected levels; neither is overachieving in raw shot volume. The team that converts chances at regression-adjusted rates likely wins. That edge shifts toward the Devils if puck luck normalizes, and toward the Blue Jackets if they sustain their current rate. At pick'em odds, the model has no preferred outcome — only a forecast that neither team pulls away.

Players to Watch

NJD

Timo Meier — 1.08 xG/60, 13G 15A, 3 HD goals
Jack Hughes — 0.88 xG/60, 18G 17A, 11.5% shooting

CBJ

Boone Jenner — 0.98 xG/60, 11G 21A, 2 HD goals
Mathieu Olivier — 0.89 xG/60, 12G 9A, 13.3% shooting

Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 52%

52%

CBJ

Model favorite

48%

52%

NJD50CBJ

CBJ by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 3.1–3.3 CBJ; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD← edge

edge →CBJ

50.7%50.0%

51.3%51.1%

3.163.14

3.073.14

2.763.00

3.093.06

0.9711.003

NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 1.003) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · No games yet

NJD

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

CBJ

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.003

CBJ PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICALCBJ

Shutdown Assignment: Blue Jackets

Key matchup: Neutralize Timo Meier (13G, 1.08 xG/60, 3 HD goals)

TACTICALNJD

Shutdown Assignment: Devils

Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

WARNINGNJD

Exploitable minutes: Johnathan Kovacevic

Johnathan Kovacevic is on ice for 2.72 xGA/60 and 26 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Johnathan Kovacevic's shifts with the top line.

WARNINGCBJ

Exploitable minutes: Conor Garland

Conor Garland is on ice for 2.93 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Conor Garland's shifts with the top line.

Regression watch

The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

CBJ

Boone Jenner11G 21A

0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh

Mathieu Olivier12G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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