Motion-blurred skater in a Minnesota Wild sweater

Breakdown · LAK at MIN

Wild steal one from the Kings against the run of play

Final / OTMon, Oct 13

LAKLos Angeles Kings3 MINMinnesota Wild4

The verdict · stolen

The Wild stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.06–2.57 and won anyway.

LAK 3 · MIN 4

◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:21 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota stole this one. They won 4–3 in a shootout while losing the xG battle 2.57–4.06; the Kings controlled 61% of expected goals at 5v5. That margin shouldn't flip.

The Wild held 43% of shot attempts (26–34 on goal) and trailed 4–5 in high-danger chances. The reason they won: goaltending and shooting variance. J. Wallstedt finished 31/34 (0.912 SV%), stopping 1.06 goals above expected. D. Kuemper was 23/26 (0.885 SV%), allowing 1.06 goals above expected. In a shootout, that gap is decisive.

Minnesota's power play swung the game—three goals on 17 shots (1.44 xG), while the Kings scored twice on 17 attempts (1.50 xG). Minnesota was efficient where it mattered. On the rush, the Kings were the better team: they scored twice on 34 chances versus Minnesota's three on 21. Kuemper stopped all five high-danger shots. Minnesota, meanwhile, went 0-for-5 on high-danger chances at even strength but scored twice from low-danger spots—the kind of variance that doesn't sustain.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Oct 13

LAK

MIN

Wild steal one from the Kings against the run of play

Chances 4.1 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Kings deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

LAK

4.06

MIN

2.57

61% of the chances39%

The board read LAK 3, MIN 4. The chances read LAK 4.1, MIN 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

MIN

+1.4

goals above expected

MIN2.57 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

LAK4.06 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 14:04MINJ. SpurgeonPP0–1
P1 16:13MINK. KaprizovPP0–2
P1 16:33MINM. BoldyPP0–3
P3 03:53LAKK. Fiala1–3
P3 06:22LAKQ. ByfieldPP2–3
P3 19:14LAKA. KempePP3–3
SO 00:00MINM. RossiPP3–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

LAK

53 shots

Final

95 shots

MIN

42 shots

LAK MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 4 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

LAKMIN

0 / 4

1.01 xG

High danger

0 / 5

1.18 xG

2 / 21

2.33 xG

Medium

1 / 8

0.74 xG

1 / 38

0.71 xG

Low

2 / 36

0.65 xG

The Kings went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

J. Wallstedt

+1.1

MIN · 31/34

D. Kuemper

−0.4

LAK · 23/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Wild steal one from the Kings against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–14

14:04MINJ. Spurgeonpower play(M. Johansson, M. Rossi)0–1
16:13MINK. Kaprizovpower play(Z. Buium, V. Tarasenko)0–2
16:33MINM. Boldypower play(V. Tarasenko, J. Eriksson Ek)0–3

2ndshots 10–5no goals

3rdshots 13–6

03:53LAKK. Fiala(J. Armia, B. Clarke)1–3
06:22LAKQ. Byfieldpower play(A. Kempe, A. Kopitar)2–3
19:14LAKA. Kempepower play(Q. Byfield, D. Doughty)3–3

OTshots 3–1no goals

00:00MINM. Rossipower play3–3

score reads LAK–MIN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.57

MIN chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.014

MIN puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

43.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.06Expected goals2.57

LAK 61% of the chance quality

34Shots on goal26

4High-danger chances5

63All attempts (Corsi)49

Adjusted for score: LAK 61% · MIN 39%

Faceoffs · MIN won48%off54%neu52%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

LAK0 / 4 · 1.01 xG

MIN0 / 5 · 1.18 xG

Medium dangermid-range

LAK2 / 21 · 2.33 xG

MIN1 / 8 · 0.74 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

LAK1 / 38 · 0.71 xG

MIN2 / 36 · 0.65 xG

MIN went 2-for-36 from low danger on 0.65 expected goals — 1.4 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

LAK

3 G · 4.06 xG · -1.1

MIN

4 G · 2.57 xG · +1.4

012345

LAK finished -1.1 against expected, MIN +1.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

LAK

WRIST1/24

SNAP2/9

SLAP0/9

TIP IN0/5

DEFLECTED0/1

BACKHAND0/1

OTHER0/14

MIN

WRIST3/24

SNAP0/6

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

BACKHAND0/1

OTHER0/11

LAK

MIN

Off the rush

2 G on 34

3.37 xG

3 G on 21

1.61 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.07 xG

0 G on 3

0.42 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: LAK went 1-for-24, MIN 3-for-24. MIN scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Kuemper

LAK · 23/26 · .885

-0.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.2+1.2

Medium1/80.7-0.3

Low2/360.7-1.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Wallstedt

MIN · 31/34 · .912

+1.1

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/41.0+1.0

Medium2/212.3+0.3

Low1/380.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

95 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

LAK

53 shots

Final

95 shots

MIN

42 shots

LAK MIN GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Kempe

#9 · R · LAK

1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 20:14 on ice · +1

Q. Byfield

#55 · R · LAK

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 19:43 on ice · +2

V. Tarasenko

#91 · R · MIN

0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 17:23 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Oct 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Model draft

◆ By the ModelSep 22, 2:23 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a LAK 3.1 - 3.3 MIN game with the Wild at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Keys to the game

Shutdown Assignment: Wild. Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Shutdown Assignment: Kings. Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)
Exploitable minutes: Adrian Kempe. Adrian Kempe is on ice for 2.47 xGA/60 and 43 high-danger shots against this season.

Season 5v5 Numbers

Metric	LAK	MIN
xG%	51.4%	52.0%
Corsi%	52.1%	48.5%
PDO	1.001	1.008

Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

Where the Edges Live

The Kings drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.

Players to Watch

LAK

Alex Laferriere — 0.87 xG/60, 16G 18A, 2 HD goals, 9.9% shooting
Jared Wright — 0.83 xG/60, 0G 4A

MIN

Matt Boldy — 0.89 xG/60, 22G 18A, 5 HD goals, 13.7% shooting
Robby Fabbri — 0.88 xG/60, 2G 3A, 1 HD goals, 6.9% shooting

Key Matchups

LAK

Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
Watch Jared Wright (0G, 0.0% shooting)

MIN

Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)
Watch Robby Fabbri (2G, 6.9% shooting)

Tactical Notes

LAK: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
LAK defensive weak link: Adrian Kempe
MIN: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
MIN defensive weak link: Matt Kiersted

Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 53%

53%

MIN

Model favorite

47%

53%

LAK50MIN

MIN by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score LAK 3.1–3.3 MIN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

LAK← edge

edge →MIN

51.4%52.0%

52.1%48.5%

3.103.27

2.933.02

2.683.27

2.902.87

1.0011.008

MIN holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.001 vs 1.008) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · No games yet

LAK

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

MIN

0-0-0

+0 GD · 0d rest

1.001

LAK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.008

MIN PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

TACTICALMIN

Shutdown Assignment: Wild

Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

TACTICALLAK

Shutdown Assignment: Kings

Key matchup: Neutralize Matt Boldy (22G, 0.89 xG/60, 5 HD goals)

WARNINGLAK

Exploitable minutes: Adrian Kempe

Adrian Kempe is on ice for 2.47 xGA/60 and 43 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Adrian Kempe's shifts with the top line.

WARNINGMIN

Exploitable minutes: Matt Kiersted

Matt Kiersted is on ice for 3.56 xGA/60 and 7 high-danger shots against this season.

Hunt matchups against Matt Kiersted's shifts with the top line.

Where the edges live

The Kings drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.

Things to watch

The Kings drive Corsi at 52.1% — expect territorial tilt.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

LAK

Alex Laferriere16G 18A

0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh

Jared Wright0G 4A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh

MIN

Matt Boldy22G 18A

0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

Robby Fabbri2G 3A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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