Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Montreal Canadiens sweater
← Thu, Oct 16 · the slate
Breakdown · NSH at MTL

Canadiens edge the Predators in overtime

Final / OTThu, Oct 16
NSHNashville Predators2MTLMontreal Canadiens3
The verdict · earned

The Canadiens earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NSH 2 · MTL 3
◆ By the ModelJun 16, 2:50 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Nashville's inability to convert on high-danger chances proved decisive in a 3–2 overtime loss. The Predators went 0 for 5 on such opportunities, a conversion rate well below average. Montreal controlled the game's underlying metrics: 58% of expected goals (4.35–3.20), a 61% shot-attempt edge (30–19), and a 2–1 advantage in high-danger chances (10–5). Cole Caufield's overtime snap shot at 4:57 secured the win.

Both goaltenders exceeded their expected performance. J. Saros (Nashville) made 27 of 30 saves while stopping 1.35 goals above expected; J. Dobes (Montreal) allowed 17 of 19 while stopping 1.20 above expected. Montreal's own underperformance—1.35 goals below their xG—meant that control translated narrowly, requiring overtime to settle the result.

Montreal was efficient on the rush, converting 2 goals on 29 chances. Nashville matched that rate (2 on 24) but lacked the volume to matter.

The Three Stars:

  • #48 L. Hutson — 2A
  • #13 C. Caufield — 2G
  • #59 R. Josi — 1A
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Oct 16
NSH
2
MTL
3

Canadiens edge the Predators in overtime

Chances 3.2 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Canadiens earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
NSH
3.20
MTL
4.35
42% of the chances58%

The board read NSH 2, MTL 3. The chances read NSH 3.2, MTL 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MTL
−1.4
goals above expected
MTL4.35 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
NSH3.20 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 11:36NSHS. StamkosPP1–0
  2. P3 06:02MTLO. Kapanen1–1
  3. P3 11:21NSHN. Perbix2–1
  4. P3 19:40MTLC. CaufieldPP2–2
  5. OT 04:57MTLC. Caufield2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
NSH
34 shots
2
Final
78 shots
MTL
44 shots
3
NSH attackMTL attack
NSH MTL Goal
34
shots · 2 in
44
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
NSHMTL
0 / 5
1.27 xG
High danger
2 / 10
2.48 xG
2 / 15
1.62 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.40 xG
0 / 33
0.31 xG
Low
0 / 35
0.47 xG

The Predators went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Saros
+1.4
NSH · 27/30
B+
J. Dobes
+1.2
MTL · 17/19
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Canadiens edge the Predators in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 6–6no goals
    2ndshots 6–10
    1. 11:36NSHS. Stamkospower play(R. Josi, L. Evangelista)1–0
    3rdshots 4–11
    1. 06:02MTLO. Kapanen(L. Hutson, K. Guhle)1–1
    2. 11:21NSHN. Perbix(M. McCarron)2–1
    3. 19:40MTLC. Caufieldpower play(L. Hutson)2–2
    OTshots 3–3
    1. 04:57MTLC. Caufield(N. Suzuki, M. Matheson)2–3

    score reads NSH–MTL

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    4.35
    MTL chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.4
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.015
    MTL puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    51.8%
    Shot attempts
    Over half — they had the puck more
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.20Expected goals4.35
    MTL 58% of the chance quality
    19Shots on goal30
    5High-danger chances10
    53All attempts (Corsi)57
    Adjusted for score: NSH 47% · MTL 53%
    Faceoffs · MTL won50%off47%neu30%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    NSH0 / 5 · 1.27 xG
    MTL2 / 10 · 2.48 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    NSH2 / 15 · 1.62 xG
    MTL1 / 12 · 1.40 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    NSH0 / 33 · 0.31 xG
    MTL0 / 35 · 0.47 xG

    NSH went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.27 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    NSH
    2 G · 3.20 xG · -1.2
    MTL
    3 G · 4.35 xG · -1.4
    012345

    NSH finished -1.2 against expected, MTL -1.4.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    NSH
    SNAP2/18
    TIP IN0/6
    WRIST0/4
    BACKHAND0/2
    SLAP0/2
    BAT0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    POKE0/0
    OTHER0/19
    MTL
    SNAP3/31
    TIP IN0/5
    WRIST0/3
    BACKHAND0/4
    SLAP0/0
    BAT0/0
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    POKE0/1
    OTHER0/13
    NSH
    MTL
    Off the rush
    2 G on 24
    2.34 xG
    2 G on 29
    3.34 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 2
    0.29 xG
    1 G on 3
    0.68 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: NSH went 2-for-18, MTL 3-for-31. NSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Saros
    NSH · 27/30 · .900
    +1.4
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/102.5+0.5
    Medium1/121.4+0.4
    Low0/350.5+0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Dobes
    MTL · 17/19 · .895
    +1.2
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/51.3+1.3
    Medium2/151.6-0.4
    Low0/330.3+0.3

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    78 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    NSH
    34 shots
    2
    Final
    78 shots
    MTL
    44 shots
    3
    NSH attackMTL attack
    NSH MTL Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — NSH left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    L. Hutson
    #48 · D · —
    0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 24:42 on ice · +2
    C. Caufield
    #13 · R · —
    2 G · 0 A · 4 SOG · 20:54 on ice · +2
    R. Josi
    #59 · D · —
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 28:13 on ice · -1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Oct 16
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelSep 22, 3:29 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a Nashville 3.2–3.4 Montreal finish with Canadiens favored at 53% win probability. This is as close to even money as exists.

    These teams are functionally balanced at even strength. Nashville sits at 48.7% xG%, Montreal 49.7%. Shot attempts lean the same way—Nashville 49.5% Corsi%, Montreal 48.2%. When pace and volume are this similar, conversion rates and the variance that rides them become everything.

    Montreal's advantage flows through its stars. Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60) shoots 20.0%—a clip well above his expected rate—while Oliver Kapanen (19G, 0.83 xG/60) runs 17.8% shooting despite just four high-danger goals. The Canadiens carry a 1.019 PDO, a clear sign they're beating their expected outcome. That heat fades.

    Nashville's answer is precision over volume. Filip Forsberg (23G, 13.6% shooting) and Zachary L'Heureux (4G, 0.85 xG/60) both punish the chances they get. L'Heureux has already converted one high-danger goal and maintains 16.0% shooting. Forsberg carries four high-danger markers and 17 assists alongside his 23 goals. Neither waits for volume—they capitalize.

    The defensive assignment is stark: Montreal must neutralize L'Heureux; Nashville must account for Caufield. On the margin, Nashville owns a liability. Jonathan Marchessault operates in a 3.07 xGA/60 environment—the worst defensive efficiency on the Predators—and has surrendered 40 high-danger shots this season. Montreal's forwards who draw his assignment will find space.

    Everything else breaks even. Nashville's 0.992 PDO suggests they're slightly unlucky; Montreal's 1.019 is pure luck running hot. One regresses down, one regresses up, and the distance between them closes. The winner will be determined by whether Montreal's exceptional shooting holds and whether Nashville can exploit Marchessault. Both are possible. Neither is certain.

    Season rates in this preview are from 2025-26 — this season's sample isn't live yet.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    MTL 53%
    53%
    MTL
    Model favorite
    47%
    53%
    NSH50MTL

    MTL by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NSH 3.2–3.4 MTL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NSH← edge
    edge →MTL
    48.7%49.7%
    49.5%48.2%
    3.093.28
    3.243.32
    2.953.40
    3.263.06
    0.9921.019

    MTL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.992 vs 1.019) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    NSH
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    MTL
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    0.992
    NSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.019
    MTL PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    TACTICALMTL

    Shutdown Assignment: Canadiens

    Key matchup: Neutralize Zachary L'Heureux (4G, 0.85 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Zachary L'Heureux (4G, 0.85 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    TACTICALNSH

    Shutdown Assignment: Predators

    Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Cole Caufield (33G, 0.97 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    WARNINGNSH

    Exploitable minutes: Jonathan Marchessault

    Jonathan Marchessault is on ice for 3.07 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Jonathan Marchessault's shifts with the top line.

    WARNINGMTL

    Exploitable minutes: Mike Matheson

    Mike Matheson is on ice for 2.90 xGA/60 and 78 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Mike Matheson's shifts with the top line.

    Regression watch
    • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Canadiens' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    NSH
    Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
    0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
    Filip Forsberg23G 17A
    0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
    MTL
    Cole Caufield33G 16A
    0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh
    Oliver Kapanen19G 12A
    0.83 xG/60 · 4 HD · 17.8% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page