The Senators won 4-3 in a shootout despite being battered in expected goals, 2.65 to 4.65—a 36–64 split that made them heavily the underdog. This was a heist.

The Kraken controlled 64% of expected goals at 5v5, a margin so decisive that it usually predicts the scoreboard. The Senators held 41% of shot attempts (23–33) and absorbed sustained pressure. Yet they converted their chances while Seattle couldn't, a variance that defines a steal.

L. Ullmark (OTT) stole this one. He stopped 1.65 goals above expected on 30 of 33 shots (0.909 SV%), including a perfect record on high-danger chances: 6 for 6. P. Grubauer (SEA) couldn't match him despite a solid 0.870 SV% on 20 of 23 shots—he faced the higher quality looks (0.069 xG per shot vs 0.038) and still surrendered the deciding moment.

The Kraken squandered 1.65 goals' worth of xG, generating six high-danger chances but scoring just twice. The Senators' power play was lethal: 2 goals on 11 shots despite just 0.43 xG. Off the rush, Ottawa scored 2 goals on 26 chances—a separate edge that compounded Seattle's misery.

Shane Pinto's snap shot from the slot ended it in the shootout.

The model projects a 2.1–2.7 goal game favoring Ottawa, which carries 60% win probability. This isn't a coin flip: the underlying numbers clearly back the Senators.

Ottawa dominates 5v5 play. The Senators post 56.0% expected goals (xG) share versus Seattle's 46.0%. They own territorial control at 53.0% Corsi versus Seattle's 45.0%. The gap is real—expect Ottawa to dictate pace and location.

The PDO story adds nuance. Seattle's 1.011 PDO (a luck-adjusted shooting and save percentage metric) sits well above neutral, while Ottawa's 0.993 registers below. The implication: Seattle has outperformed its underlying play recently; Ottawa has underperformed. Regression toward the mean favors the Senators.

Recent form complicates the picture but doesn't erase it. Seattle rides a 5-2-2 stretch over the last 10 games, suggesting momentum. Ottawa, meanwhile, sits at minus-17 goal differential over the same span—they've been bleeding runs despite controlling play. This is the classic underlying-play-vs.-results mismatch that models exploit.

The goaltending matchup deserves attention. L. Meriläinen operates on a back-to-back; watch for Seattle's backup or a fatigued starter.

Players to Watch

Jacob Melanson leads Seattle's attack with 0.88 expected goals per 60 minutes, 2 goals, 3 assists, and 2 high-danger chances. His 6.1% shooting rate suggests upside. Ben Meyers backs him at 0.82 xG/60 with 7 goals, 8 assists, and 12.1% shooting—a low-volume, high-efficiency threat.

Ottawa counters with Brady Tkachuk's 1.19 xG/60 rate (the game's highest), carrying 11 goals and 20 assists with 2 high-danger goals and 7.5% shooting. Dylan Cozens mirrors him at 1.00 xG/60, pacing at 13 goals and 15 assists with 9.5% shooting.

The tactical edge lies with Ottawa's ability to generate volume and quality. Chandler Stephenson represents Seattle's defensive weak link; Nick Jensen fills that role for the Senators. Both teams show 0% high-danger and rebound-goal rates, a statistical oddity worth monitoring.

The model's verdict rests on territorial dominance and shot quality. Seattle's hot streak masks underlying vulnerability. Back the Senators on the numbers.