The Red Wings stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.89–3.10 and won anyway.
Detroit won 2–1 in overtime, but the underlying numbers say Tampa Bay deserved better. The Lightning controlled 56% of expected goals at five-on-five while losing the game—a margin so significant that it constitutes not variance but theft.
Expected goals finished 3.89–3.10 in Tampa's favor. Detroit held 49% of shot attempts (31–32 on goal). High-danger chances split 6–4 to Tampa. None of this produced a Lightning win. J. Gibson made that impossible.
Gibson finished with 31 saves on 32 shots and a 0.969 save percentage, posting a +2.89 performance above expected. He faced six high-danger chances and stopped all six. By the numbers, he prevented nearly three goals beyond what models predict—the difference between a loss and a win.
A. Vasilevskiy made 29 saves on 31 shots and finished +1.10 above expected. His night was competent. The problem was not goaltending but finishing: Tampa converted zero of its six high-danger chances. They outplayed Detroit across the board and scored once. That imbalance doesn't happen twice.
The turning point arrived at 3:36 of overtime. Dylan Larkin took a snap shot from the high slot. It was all Detroit needed.
This was a game Tampa won through the first sixty minutes and lost in one. J. Gibson made that loss inevitable.
