Breakdown · NYR at MTL

Rangers hold off the Canadiens

FinalSat, Oct 18

NYRNew York Rangers4 MTLMontreal Canadiens3

The verdict · coin flip

The Rangers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYR 4 · MTL 3

◆ By the ModelJun 16, 3:01 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Montreal controlled the game on paper — 52% of shot attempts and a 3-2 disadvantage in high-danger chances — but fell short where it mattered. S. Montembeault gave up 1.33 goals more than expected, a gap that proved decisive in a coin-flip matchup (2.46–2.67 xG), sending Montreal to a 4-3 loss.

The underlying play was tight. Montreal generated 24 shot attempts to New York's 22, and the expected-goals margin favored the Rangers only marginally (52–48). But expected goals is not destiny. The Rangers overperformed theirs by 1.33 — converting 3 of 23 rush chances while Montreal converted 2 of 18.

Noah Dobson's snap shot from the wing (P3, 08:26) was the turning point. By the end, the Rangers had the goals when it counted; the Canadiens had the prettier statistics.

Three Stars

#10 A. Panarin — 1G, 3A in 20:05
#23 A. Fox — 2A in 25:02
#93 M. Zibanejad — 1G, 1A in 22:16

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 18

NYR

MTL

Rangers hold off the Canadiens

Chances 2.7 – 2.5Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Rangers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

2.67

MTL

2.46

52% of the chances48%

The board read NYR 4, MTL 3. The chances read NYR 2.7, MTL 2.5.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

+1.3

goals above expected

NYR2.67 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

MTL2.46 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 01:33MTLJ. Slafkovský0–1
P1 03:42MTLN. SuzukiPP0–2
P1 11:56NYRM. ZibanejadPP1–2
P3 00:34NYRJ. Miller2–2
P3 04:11NYRM. Robertson3–2
P3 05:51NYRA. Panarin4–2
P3 08:26MTLN. Dobson4–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

40 shots

Final

77 shots

MTL

37 shots

NYR MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRMTL

1 / 3

0.66 xG

High danger

0 / 2

0.50 xG

2 / 15

1.48 xG

Medium

2 / 13

1.41 xG

1 / 33

0.53 xG

Low

1 / 36

0.55 xG

High-danger looks: NYR 1 of 3, MTL 0 of 2.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Quick

−0.5

NYR · 21/24

D-

S. Montembeault

−1.3

MTL · 18/22

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers hold off the Canadiens

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–8

01:33MTLJ. Slafkovský(C. Caufield)0–1
03:42MTLN. Suzukipower play(I. Demidov, B. Gallagher)0–2
11:56NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(A. Fox, A. Panarin)1–2

2ndshots 6–8no goals

3rdshots 10–8

00:34NYRJ. Miller(A. Fox, A. Panarin)2–2
04:11NYRM. Robertson(A. Panarin, C. Sheary)3–2
05:51NYRA. Panarin(M. Zibanejad, V. Gavrikov)4–2
08:26MTLN. Dobson(J. Struble, J. Anderson)4–3

score reads NYR–MTL

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.67

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.3

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.020

NYR puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

50.0%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.67Expected goals2.46

NYR 52% of the chance quality

22Shots on goal24

3High-danger chances2

51All attempts (Corsi)51

Adjusted for score: NYR 52% · MTL 48%

Faceoffs · MTL won71%off50%neu41%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR1 / 3 · 0.66 xG

MTL0 / 2 · 0.50 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR2 / 15 · 1.48 xG

MTL2 / 13 · 1.41 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR1 / 33 · 0.53 xG

MTL1 / 36 · 0.55 xG

MTL went 2-for-13 from medium danger on 1.41 expected goals — 0.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

4 G · 2.67 xG · +1.3

MTL

3 G · 2.46 xG · +0.5

012345

NYR finished +1.3 against expected, MTL +0.5.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

SNAP1/24

SLAP2/8

TIP IN0/4

WRIST0/1

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED1/1

OTHER0/11

MTL

SNAP3/29

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/2

WRIST0/3

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/14

NYR

MTL

Off the rush

3 G on 23

2.05 xG

2 G on 18

1.80 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.27 xG

0 G on 3

0.33 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-24, MTL 3-for-29. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Quick

NYR · 21/24 · .875

-0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.5+0.5

Medium2/131.4-0.6

Low1/360.6-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Montembeault

MTL · 18/22 · .818

-1.3

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/30.7-0.3

Medium2/151.5-0.5

Low1/330.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

77 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

40 shots

Final

77 shots

MTL

37 shots

NYR MTL GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, MTL right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Panarin

#10 · L · NYR

1 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 20:05 on ice · +2

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 25:02 on ice · +1

M. Zibanejad

#93 · C · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:16 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Oct 18

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJun 16, 3:00 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model sees this as nearly even: Rangers 2.4, Canadiens 2.5, Montreal at 51% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as the numbers get.

The underlying structure is symmetric. Both teams show 48.0% expected goals share and 49.0% Corsi percentage at 5v5—identical territorial control and shot quality.

The forward matchups are sharp. Cole Caufield leads Montreal with 0.97 xG per 60 minutes, 33 goals, and 20.0% shooting. Brendan Gallagher supports at 0.89 xG/60 with five goals on 4.6% shooting. For New York, Adam Sykora produces at 0.91 xG/60 with three goals on 20.0% shooting. Gabe Perreault offers secondary punch: 0.79 xG/60, eight goals, 13.1% shooting.

Neither team has scored from high-danger chances or rebounds. New York's Vincent Iorio and Montreal's Mike Matheson represent weak points in their respective back ends, and in a game where secondary scoring is absent, defensive miscues could prove decisive. New York's PDO sits at 1.009.

Three Things to Watch

Montreal is the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
Montreal PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MTL 51%

51%

MTL

Model favorite

49%

51%

NYR50MTL

MTL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.4–2.5 MTL; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →MTL

48.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.262.41

2.402.62

1.882.24

1.901.96

1.0091.018

MTL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.018) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

3-6-1

-3 GD · 2d rest

MTL

7-3-0

+6 GD · 2d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

MTL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

MTL PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

MTL is the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
MTL PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MTL

Expected in goal

J. Dobes

2 days rest.895 last start

Backup Jakub Dobes · +17.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

MTL

Cole Caufield33G 16A

0.97 xG/60 · 1 HD · 20.0% sh

Brendan Gallagher5G 13A

0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.6% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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