Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Philadelphia Flyers sweater
← Sat, Oct 18 · the slate
Breakdown · MIN at PHI

Flyers edge the Wild in overtime

Final / OTSat, Oct 18
MINMinnesota Wild1PHIPhiladelphia Flyers2
The verdict · coin flip

The Flyers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

MIN 1 · PHI 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:29 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Philadelphia's 2-1 overtime win read tighter than the final margin. Minnesota generated more high-danger chances (2 to 1) yet scored half as many goals. Expected goals nearly split at 2.56–2.46, a 51–49 edge for the Flyers.

D. Vladar (PHI) stopped 15 of 16 shots (0.938 SV%, +1.46 vs expected). His outperformance accounted for the gap between a near-even underlying contest and the scoreboard. J. Wallstedt (MIN) posted 19 of 21 saves (0.905 SV%, +0.56 vs expected), though Vladar's advantage proved decisive.

The Flyers held 57% of shot attempts (21–16 on goal). Noah Cates settled it at 02:37 of overtime with a wrist shot from the high slot.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Oct 18
MIN
1
PHI
2

Flyers edge the Wild in overtime

Chances 2.5 – 2.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Flyers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
MIN
2.46
PHI
2.56
49% of the chances51%

The board read MIN 1, PHI 2. The chances read MIN 2.5, PHI 2.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
PHI
−0.6
goals above expected
PHI2.56 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN2.46 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 01:55MINV. Tarasenko1–0
  2. P3 07:10PHIO. Tippett1–1
  3. OT 02:37PHIN. Cates1–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
MIN
38 shots
1
Final
73 shots
PHI
35 shots
2
MIN attackPHI attack
MIN PHI Goal
38
shots · 1 in
35
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
MINPHI
0 / 2
0.44 xG
High danger
0 / 1
0.19 xG
1 / 15
1.60 xG
Medium
2 / 17
1.95 xG
0 / 39
0.43 xG
Low
0 / 33
0.43 xG

High-danger looks: MIN 0 of 2, PHI 0 of 1.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
D. Vladar
+1.5
PHI · 15/16
B
J. Wallstedt
+0.6
MIN · 19/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Flyers edge the Wild in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 3–6no goals
    2ndshots 8–5
    1. 01:55MINV. Tarasenko(M. Rossi, J. Brodin)1–0
    3rdshots 4–9
    1. 07:10PHIO. Tippett(T. Zegras, C. Dvorak)1–1
    OTshots 1–1
    1. 02:37PHIN. Cates(T. Foerster, J. Drysdale)1–2

    score reads MIN–PHI

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.56
    PHI chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.6
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.021
    PHI puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    47.7%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.46Expected goals2.56
    PHI 51% of the chance quality
    16Shots on goal21
    2High-danger chances1
    56All attempts (Corsi)51
    Adjusted for score: MIN 51% · PHI 49%
    Faceoffs · PHI won75%off44%neu42%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    MIN0 / 2 · 0.44 xG
    PHI0 / 1 · 0.19 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    MIN1 / 15 · 1.60 xG
    PHI2 / 17 · 1.95 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    MIN0 / 39 · 0.43 xG
    PHI0 / 33 · 0.43 xG

    MIN went 1-for-15 from medium danger on 1.60 expected goals — 0.6 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    MIN
    1 G · 2.46 xG · -1.5
    PHI
    2 G · 2.56 xG · -0.6
    0123

    MIN finished -1.5 against expected, PHI -0.6.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    MIN
    SNAP1/21
    WRIST0/8
    TIP IN0/3
    SLAP0/5
    BACKHAND0/1
    BAT0/0
    OTHER0/18
    PHI
    SNAP0/7
    WRIST1/19
    TIP IN0/4
    SLAP0/1
    BACKHAND1/3
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/16
    MIN
    PHI
    Off the rush
    1 G on 19
    1.65 xG
    1 G on 26
    2.02 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 2
    0.24 xG
    0 G on 1
    0.13 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: MIN went 1-for-21, PHI 0-for-7.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Wallstedt
    MIN · 19/21 · .905
    +0.6
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/10.2+0.2
    Medium2/171.9-0.1
    Low0/330.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    D. Vladar
    PHI · 15/16 · .938
    +1.5
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/20.4+0.4
    Medium1/151.6+0.6
    Low0/390.4+0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    73 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    MIN
    38 shots
    1
    Final
    73 shots
    PHI
    35 shots
    2
    MIN attackPHI attack
    MIN PHI Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — MIN left, PHI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Brodin
    #25 · D · MIN
    0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 22:09 on ice
    J. Drysdale
    #9 · D · PHI
    0 G · 1 A · 0 SOG · 21:35 on ice · +1
    T. Foerster
    #71 · R · PHI
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 20:14 on ice · +1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Sat, Oct 18
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:28 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model says pick'em: it projects a 2.4-2.5 goal game with the Flyers at 51% win probability. Both teams are nearly identical in underlying play, which means the decider is who shows up with fresher legs.

    Both have lost their footing. Minnesota has cratered to -9 in goal differential over their last 10 games; Philadelphia sits at -8. Neither team is playing clean hockey right now.

    The analytics confirm the stalemate. Minnesota edges in expected goals share at 52.0% to Philadelphia's 51.0%, but the Flyers match them in Corsi at 48.0% apiece. PDO is nearly identical for both—1.007 for Minnesota and 1.008 for Philadelphia—meaning neither team has been lucky or unlucky; both have converted at league-average rates. There's no hidden advantage for one team to find.

    Execution on the ice breaks the tie. For Minnesota, Matt Boldy (22 goals, 18 assists, 0.89 xG/60) is the engine. He generates chances relentlessly and will be Philadelphia's primary target. Robby Fabbri is marked inactive, removing a secondary scoring option. On defense, Matt Kiersted is a glaring liability.

    Philadelphia's offense depends on Owen Tippett (19 goals, 18 assists, 0.88 xG/60) and Christian Dvorak (12 goals, 21 assists, 0.81 xG/60), who produces offensively but presents defensive vulnerabilities.

    One wrinkle: F. Gustavsson is on a back-to-back. Expect either a backup start or a starter running on empty.

    Both teams have converted 0% of their high-danger chances and 0% of their rebounds. That's an anomaly due for correction, and tonight could be when it happens.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    PHI 51%
    51%
    PHI
    Model favorite
    49%
    51%
    MIN50PHI

    PHI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MIN 2.4–2.5 PHI; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    MIN← edge
    edge →PHI
    52.0%51.0%
    48.0%48.0%
    2.552.26
    2.402.20
    2.041.96
    1.931.82
    1.0071.008

    The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.007 vs 1.008) says PHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    MIN
    4-5-1
    -9 GD · 1d rest
    PHI
    3-6-1
    -8 GD · 2d rest
    1.007
    MIN PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.008
    PHI PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Things to watch
    • F. Gustavsson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Flyers are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
    • The Wild are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    MIN
    Expected in goal
    F. Gustavsson
    back-to-back.889 last start
    Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    PHI
    Expected in goal
    S. Ersson
    2 days rest.714 last start
    Backup Dan Vladar · +13.8 GSAx this season

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    MIN
    Matt Boldy22G 18A
    0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
    Robby Fabbri2G 3A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
    PHI
    Owen Tippett19G 18A
    0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.1% sh
    Christian Dvorak12G 21A
    0.81 xG/60 · 3 HD · 11.2% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page