The Canucks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.06–5.40 and won anyway.
The Canucks won a game they had no business winning. Vancouver took a 4–3 victory from Washington despite losing the expected-goals battle 5.40–3.06—a 64–36 split so lopsided it made the final score look like an arithmetic error.
The Capitals' dominance was comprehensive. They won 31 shot attempts to 24, generated nine high-danger chances to three, and held 56% of shot volume. Their power play was surgical: two goals on 23 shots (1.90 xG). On paper, Washington controlled this game completely.
T. Demko broke the script. The Vancouver goalie made 28 saves on 31 shots (0.903 SV%), finishing +2.40 against expected goals—meaning he stopped 2.4 more goals than the Capitals should have scored. C. Lindgren, Washington's starter, cut the other direction: 20 saves on 24 shots (0.833 SV%), sitting –0.94, a performance that handed the Canucks the margin.
Vancouver's winning came from two edges. The Canucks exploited the rush ruthlessly, scoring two goals from 22 chances. The Capitals created more rebound opportunities (eight) than Vancouver (seven), but converted just one to Vancouver's two. The goaltending mismatch decided it.
John Carlson's snap shot from the point at 17:46 of the third was Washington's best chance, though it proved immaterial.
The Three Stars:
- T. Myers (VAN, #57): 1G, 1A in 26:12
- C. Garland (VAN, #8): 2A in 22:20
- T. Wilson (WSH, #43): 2A in 20:57
