The Canadiens stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.52–4.50 and won anyway.
Montreal won 4-2 despite surrendering the expected-goals battle. Buffalo generated 5.52 xG to the Canadiens' 4.50—a 55–45 split in Buffalo's favor. The difference: Montreal converted their high-danger chances, Buffalo didn't, and J. Dobes made the saves that mattered.
The Canadiens converted their looks. Montreal buried three of their seven high-danger chances (43% efficiency). Buffalo generated even more quality: 10 HD chances to Montreal's 7, but scored zero. That disparity—three goals from dangerous situations versus none—explained the scoreline more than overall xG.
Goaltending amplified the gap. Dobes stopped 30 of 32 shots (0.938 SV%) and saved 3.52 goals above expected. A. Lyon (BUF) was also strong—28 saves in 31 shots (0.903 SV%), saving 1.50 goals above expected—but faced tougher circumstances in tight contests.
Montreal's rush game broke the stalemate. The Canadiens scored four goals on 26 rush attempts, a conversion rate that reflected decision-making off the transition. Buffalo absorbed the imbalance without answer.
The script favored Montreal because they married opportunity to discipline. N. Suzuki's two assists and A. Newhook's two assists paced the attack. R. Dahlin recorded one assist for Buffalo despite 26:52 on ice.
Jake Evans's snap shot from the top of the circles at 19:29 of the third period—the turning point—underscored Montreal's ability to finish when it mattered most.
Buffalo controlled the run of play by every analytical measure, then left empty. Montreal's goaltending and clinical finishing rendered their territorial edge irrelevant.
