The Penguins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.60–5.26 and won anyway.
Pittsburgh stole this one. The Penguins beat Florida 5–3 despite the Panthers controlling 59% of expected goals at 5.26–3.60 — a heist built on elite goaltending and precision finishing in clutch moments.
The Panthers dominated by volume. They held 68% of shot attempts and 9 high-danger chances to Pittsburgh's 5. But volume without conversion is just noise. Florida managed only 12 shots on goal from all that territory; Pittsburgh converted at an astonishing rate in danger areas, finishing 2-for-5 on high-danger chances while Florida managed 3-for-9.
T. Jarry turned the outcome decisively. He stopped 34 of 37 shots, outperforming his expected save total by 2.26 goals — the kind of performance that swings a game when you're a heavy underdog in the metrics. S. Bobrovsky faced a lighter workload (12 saves on 17 shots) but underperformed his expected goals by 1.40, surrendering key chances when the game was in reach.
Sidney Crosby's wrist shot from a sharp angle midway through the first period opened Pittsburgh's advantage. Crosby finished with 2 goals and an assist over 19:06; E. Karlsson's 2 assists in 22:27 provided continuity on the back end.
Florida demonstrated precision in specific areas — their rush game was lethal, converting 3 goals from 44 rush attempts — but they couldn't sustain pressure when it mattered most. Even their dominant power play (2 goals on 19 shots) couldn't overcome Pittsburgh's elite goaltending and clinical execution in transition.
