Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · DET at NYI

D. Rittich stands tall as the Islanders edge the Red Wings

FinalThu, Oct 23

DETDetroit Red Wings2 NYINew York Islanders7

The verdict · stolen

The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 5.05–3.62 and won anyway.

DET 2 · NYI 7

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:49 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders' 7-2 victory over Detroit masked a stark reversal: they won while controlling just 42% of expected goals. D. Rittich's elite goaltending (+3.05 above expected) and the team's ruthless finishing in the high-danger area explained the divergence.

Detroit controlled 58% of expected goals (5.05–3.62) and should have found the back of the net far more often. The Red Wings generated nine high-danger chances to New York's six but converted only one. The Islanders capitalized on four of their six prime opportunities, a 67% rate that punished every mistake.

C. Talbot's performance epitomized Detroit's misfortune. The goaltender faced 34 shots and saved just 23, posting a 0.767 save percentage while conceding 3.38 goals beyond his model projection. On the other end, D. Rittich stopped 32 of 34 (0.941 SV%), turning away 3.05 more than expected and stealing the game.

The Islanders showcased their finishing beyond high-danger zones as well. They netted six goals on 27 rush chances, a clinical conversion that compounded Detroit's xG underperformance. Both teams created rebound opportunities (NYI seven, DET six), but only New York consistently capitalized on second chances.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 23

DET

NYI

D. Rittich stands tall as the Islanders edge the Red Wings

Chances 5.0 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Red Wings deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

DET

5.05

NYI

3.62

58% of the chances42%

The board read DET 2, NYI 7. The chances read DET 5.0, NYI 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+3.4

goals above expected

NYI3.62 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

DET5.05 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders scored 3.4 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 02:05NYIT. DeAngelo0–1
P1 14:56NYIE. Heineman0–2
P2 07:25NYIJ. Pageau0–3
P2 13:09NYIK. Palmieri0–4
P2 19:34NYIM. Barzal0–5
P3 03:11DETD. LarkinPP1–5
P3 07:19NYIE. Heineman1–6

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

DET

52 shots

Final

93 shots

NYI

41 shots

DET NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 7 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

DETNYI

2 / 9

2.15 xG

High danger

4 / 6

1.23 xG

0 / 20

2.38 xG

Medium

2 / 14

1.66 xG

0 / 48

0.52 xG

Low

1 / 33

0.73 xG

The Islanders buried 4 of 6 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

D. Rittich

+3.0

NYI · 32/34

C. Talbot

−3.4

DET · 23/30

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

D. Rittich stands tall as the Islanders edge the Red Wings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 5–11

02:05NYIT. DeAngelo(A. Lee, S. Holmstrom)0–1
14:56NYIE. Heineman(B. Horvat, J. Drouin)0–2

2ndshots 14–11

07:25NYIJ. Pageau(A. Lee, T. DeAngelo)0–3
13:09NYIK. Palmieri(R. Pulock, M. Barzal)0–4
19:34NYIM. Barzal(C. Cizikas)0–5

3rdshots 15–8

03:11DETD. Larkinpower play(E. Finnie, A. DeBrincat)1–5
07:19NYIE. Heineman(B. Horvat, R. Pulock)1–6
07:57NYIS. Holmstrom(A. Lee, S. Mayfield)1–7
17:20DETJ. Berggren(J. Compher, M. Brandsegg-Nygård)2–7

score reads DET–NYI

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.62

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+3.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.106

NYI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

40.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

5.05Expected goals3.62

DET 58% of the chance quality

34Shots on goal30

9High-danger chances6

77All attempts (Corsi)53

Adjusted for score: DET 66% · NYI 34%

Faceoffs · NYI won56%off50%neu59%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

DET2 / 9 · 2.15 xG

NYI4 / 6 · 1.23 xG

Medium dangermid-range

DET0 / 20 · 2.38 xG

NYI2 / 14 · 1.66 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

DET0 / 48 · 0.52 xG

NYI1 / 33 · 0.73 xG

NYI went 4-for-6 from high danger on 1.23 expected goals — 2.8 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

DET

2 G · 5.05 xG · -3.0

NYI

7 G · 3.62 xG · +3.4

012345678

DET finished -3.0 against expected, NYI +3.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

DET

WRIST2/25

SNAP0/11

BACKHAND0/4

SLAP0/6

TIP IN0/4

DEFLECTED0/1

POKE0/1

OTHER0/25

NYI

WRIST2/23

SNAP4/6

BACKHAND0/5

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/2

DEFLECTED1/3

POKE0/0

OTHER0/12

DET

NYI

Off the rush

1 G on 24

2.98 xG

6 G on 27

2.29 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 6

1.17 xG

1 G on 7

0.97 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DET went 2-for-25, NYI 2-for-23. NYI scored 6 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

C. Talbot

DET · 23/30 · .767

-3.4

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger4/61.2-2.8

Medium2/141.7-0.3

Low1/330.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Rittich

NYI · 32/34 · .941

+3.0

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/92.1+0.1

Medium0/202.4+2.4

Low0/480.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

93 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

DET

52 shots

Final

93 shots

NYI

41 shots

DET NYI GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — DET left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Lee

#27 · L · NYI

0 G · 3 A · 6 SOG · 12:50 on ice · +4

B. Horvat

#14 · C · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 19:57 on ice · +2

S. Holmstrom

#10 · R · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 18:52 on ice · +3

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Oct 23

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:47 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal spread with the Islanders at 51% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as the data permits. Detroit enters on an 8-2-0 run over their last ten, but underlying talent favors neither team decisively.

The season-long picture reveals why. Both hold 49.0% Corsi at 5v5, identical puck possession rates. Detroit owns a 49.0% expected-goals share against New York's 48.0%—a marginal edge in chance creation, not a chasm. Neither team is surfing unsustainable luck: Detroit's 0.985 PDO and New York's 0.993 sit within the range of normal variance, meaning both convert chances at roughly league-average rates. The gap, in other words, is real but gossamer.

J. Gibson starts on the second night of a back-to-back. Watch whether the Islanders opt for their backup or ask Gibson to carry tired legs.

The Matchup

Alex DeBrincat anchors Detroit's offense: 17 goals, 28 assists, 0.88 xG/60. He has capitalized on only 2 high-danger chances, but his 9.0% shooting rate is sustainable for his talent level—that gap typically closes. Marco Kasper trails at 0.81 xG/60 with 7 goals, 8 assists, and 1 high-danger goal; his 6.1% shooting rate represents the sample vulnerability of a young scorer.

Anders Lee generates the game's highest chance creation at 1.20 xG/60 with 9 goals, 20 assists, and 2 high-danger goals on 6.4% shooting. Bo Horvat operates at 0.87 xG/60 but occupies a different lane: 18 goals and 10 assists at 12.8% shooting with 3 high-danger tallies—the signature of an elite finisher.

Both offenses carry an unusual fingerprint: neither has generated a high-danger goal or rebound goal in their samples, a rarity suggesting either unconventional defensive architecture or the marginal noise of small samples. Axel Sandin-Pellikka represents Detroit's defensive liability; Alexander Romanov plays that role for New York.

The model's uncertainty is earned. Take the pick'em.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NYI 51%

51%

NYI

Model favorite

49%

51%

DET50NYI

NYI by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score DET 2.5–2.6 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

DET← edge

edge →NYI

49.0%48.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.382.48

2.502.69

1.731.78

2.071.94

0.9850.993

NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.985 vs 0.993) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

DET

8-2-0

+9 GD · 1d rest

NYI

5-4-1

-3 GD · 2d rest

0.985

DET PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

J. Gibson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Red Wings are the hotter team by points pace (8-2-0 in their last 10).

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

DET

Expected in goal

J. Gibson

back-to-back.871 last start

Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NYI

Expected in goal

I. Sorokin

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

DET

Alex DeBrincat17G 28A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh

Marco Kasper7G 8A

0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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