The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Both teams overperformed their expected goals—the Rangers by 1.91 goals and the Sharks by 2.53—which means this 6-5 result masks a nearly even underlying game.
The Sharks' 3.47 xG to 3.09 barely justified their one-goal advantage. New York controlled play with 54% of shot attempts (28–24 on goal), but generated fewer high-quality looks (5 high-danger chances vs. 8). San Jose's win came down to goaltending and variance. A. Nedeljkovic made 23 of 28 shots while allowing 1.91 fewer goals than expected—an elite performance on the moments that counted, stopping all five high-danger attempts. I. Shesterkin faced a softer workload (18/24 saves) but still allowed 2.53 more than expected, partly betrayed by the Rangers' finishing: they scored twice from low-danger spots.
New York was lethal on the rush (4 goals on 26 chances) while San Jose converted twice on 22. Yet both offenses ran hot overall. The Sharks proved sharper in shot quality: 0.075 xG per attempt vs. the Rangers' 0.049, a genuine edge despite New York's volume advantage.
Will Smith's slap shot from the high slot at 01:38 of overtime decided it—a fitting finish for a forward with 2 goals and 2 assists.
The clearest takeaway: both goaltenders leaked and both offenses clicked. Under those conditions, San Jose's superior offensive quality was enough. A. Nedeljkovic's perfection on dangerous chances ultimately settled a contest where expected goals wanted to call it nearly even.