The Mammoth stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.00–3.30 and won anyway.
The Mammoth dominated the scoreboard but surrendered the underlying game to St. Louis. Utah won 7–4 despite the Blues holding an edge in expected goals (3.30–3.00, 52–48%).
The Mammoth's power play was the equalizer. Utah scored twice on eight power-play shots (0.73 xG), capitalizing on numerical advantage when the Blues could not. On rush chances, the gap was starker: Utah converted 5 of 21 chances while St. Louis scored twice on 20 attempts.
Utah also finished at an elite clip in high-danger situations—50% on their high-danger chances (2 of 4)—while scoring two goals from low-danger spots the opposing goalie should routinely deny. The turning point came from Clayton Keller's wrist shot from the top of the circles in the third period (18:20). This elite finishing accounts for most of the 4.00-goal overperformance of Utah's actual output against their 3.00 expected goals.
Blues goalie J. Hofer underperformed badly, surrendering 2.2 more goals than expected against his low workload (3 saves on 6 shots, 0.500 SV%). J. Binnington stabilized later (15 saves on 18 shots, 0.833 SV%). On the other end, K. Vejmelka posted 16 saves on 20 shots for Utah but fell slightly short of expectation (0.800 SV%, -0.70 vs expected).