The Oilers won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The Oilers won 6-5, though expected goals favored Montreal (4.26 vs. 4.02). Edmonton's finish transcended its underlying play: the Oilers scored 1.98 goals above their xG while Montreal added just 0.74 above its own.
Edmonton held 52% of shot attempts (29-27 on goal) without translating that control into commanding metrics. High-danger chances went 9-6 Edmonton's way, a clearer edge in the areas that matter most. But Montreal had the better expected goals, which should have meant at least a tie.
Goaltending shifted the balance. S. Montembeault stopped 23 of 29 shots (0.793 SV%), falling nearly two goals short of expectation. C. Pickard, at 22 of 27 (0.815 SV%), also underperformed but by a smaller margin. Both goalies left wins on the table, but Montembeault left more.
The Oilers were lethal in transition, scoring 5 goals on 26 rush chances. Montreal converted 4 on 33 rush chances—fewer looks, similar efficiency. On the power play, Edmonton was dominant: 2 goals on 13 shots (1.79 xG).
Montreal's offense was clinical in high-danger situations, converting 3 of 6 chances (50%). Edmonton scored twice from low-danger areas—spots an opposing goalie should routinely stop. The teams combined for 15 high-danger chances, a bruising evening for both defenses.
Vasily Podkolzin's backhander from the doorstep in the third (18:51) was the defining moment, though the scoreboard concealed how close the underlying play truly was.