Devils run the Sharks off the ice on the underlying numbers
The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The underlying story
The Devils beat the Sharks 3-1, and it wasn't close on the underlying numbers — they controlled 67% of 5v5 expected goals (5.07–2.49) and 63% of shot attempts (29–17).
New Jersey's dominance showed in the quality of chances: 7 high-danger opportunities to San Jose's 4, and 0.072 expected goals per shot versus 0.055. The Devils were lethal on the rush, scoring 2 goals on 31 such chances, and their power play was a weapon — 2 goals on 27 shots (2.38 xG).
The Devils underperformed their expected goals by 2.07, suggesting they wasted some of that quality. Y. Askarov (SJS) saved 3.1 goals above expected, and J. Allen (NJD) saved 1.49, but Askarov was the difference-maker given the gap in quality between the teams' chances.
The danger ladder
NJD went 1-for-19 from medium danger on 2.17 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.
Finishing vs expected
SJS finished -1.5 against expected, NJD -2.1 — Y. Askarov (SJS) saved 3.1 goals above expected.
Shot diet
Wrist shots carried the volume: SJS went 0-for-8, NJD 1-for-20. NJD scored 2 of theirs off the rush.
- Y. Askarov (SJS) stopped 3.1 goals above expected.
- NJD generated far more dangerous chances — 0.072 xG/shot vs 0.055. Quality over quantity.
- NJD was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 31 rush chances.
- NJD created 3 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
- NJD underperformed xG by 2.1 — wasted quality chances.
- Y. Askarov (SJS) saved 3.1 goals above expected — stole the show.
- NJD power play was dominant — 2 PPG on 27 PP shots (2.38 xG).