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Motion-blurred skater in a New Jersey Devils sweater
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Breakdown · SJS at NJD

Devils run the Sharks off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalFri, Oct 24
SJSSan Jose Sharks1NJDNew Jersey Devils3
The verdict · earned

The Devils earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

SJS 1 · NJD 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:59 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Devils beat the Sharks 3-1, and it wasn't close on the underlying numbers — they controlled 67% of 5v5 expected goals (5.07–2.49) and 63% of shot attempts (29–17).

New Jersey's dominance showed in the quality of chances: 7 high-danger opportunities to San Jose's 4, and 0.072 expected goals per shot versus 0.055. The Devils were lethal on the rush, scoring 2 goals on 31 such chances, and their power play was a weapon — 2 goals on 27 shots (2.38 xG).

The Devils underperformed their expected goals by 2.07, suggesting they wasted some of that quality. Y. Askarov (SJS) saved 3.1 goals above expected, and J. Allen (NJD) saved 1.49, but Askarov was the difference-maker given the gap in quality between the teams' chances.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 24
SJS
1
NJD
3

Devils run the Sharks off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 2.5 – 5.1Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Devils earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
SJS
2.49
NJD
5.07
33% of the chances67%

The board read SJS 1, NJD 3. The chances read SJS 2.5, NJD 5.1.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NJD
−2.1
goals above expected
NJD5.07 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
SJS2.49 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 02:25SJSW. EklundPP1–0
  2. P2 00:40NJDD. HamiltonPP1–1
  3. P2 09:08NJDD. HamiltonPP1–2
  4. P3 19:13NJDC. BrownEN1–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
SJS
26 shots
1
Final
72 shots
NJD
46 shots
3
SJS attackNJD attack
SJS NJD Goal
26
shots · 1 in
46
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
SJSNJD
0 / 4
0.95 xG
High danger
2 / 7
2.31 xG
1 / 9
1.04 xG
Medium
1 / 19
2.17 xG
0 / 32
0.50 xG
Low
0 / 44
0.59 xG

The Sharks went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
Y. Askarov
+3.1
SJS · 26/28
B+
J. Allen
+1.5
NJD · 16/17
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Devils run the Sharks off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–8
  1. 02:25SJSW. Eklundpower play(M. Celebrini)1–0
2ndshots 0–13
  1. 00:40NJDD. Hamiltonpower play(D. Mercer, N. Hischier)1–1
  2. 09:08NJDD. Hamiltonpower play(J. Hughes, N. Hischier)1–2
3rdshots 10–8
  1. 19:13NJDC. Brownempty net(D. Hamilton, N. Hischier)1–3

score reads SJS–NJD

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
5.07
NJD chances
Goals their shots were worth
−2.1
Finishing
Goals below what those chances were worth
1.021
NJD puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
60.9%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.49Expected goals5.07
NJD 67% of the chance quality
17Shots on goal29
4High-danger chances7
45All attempts (Corsi)70
Adjusted for score: SJS 41% · NJD 59%
Faceoffs · NJD won53%off36%neu44%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
SJS0 / 4 · 0.95 xG
NJD2 / 7 · 2.31 xG
Medium dangermid-range
SJS1 / 9 · 1.04 xG
NJD1 / 19 · 2.17 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
SJS0 / 32 · 0.50 xG
NJD0 / 44 · 0.59 xG

NJD went 1-for-19 from medium danger on 2.17 expected goals — 1.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
SJS
1 G · 2.49 xG · -1.5
NJD
3 G · 5.07 xG · -2.1
0123456

SJS finished -1.5 against expected, NJD -2.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
SJS
WRIST0/8
SLAP0/6
SNAP1/7
TIP IN0/4
BACKHAND0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
POKE0/0
OTHER0/19
NJD
WRIST1/20
SLAP1/11
SNAP0/5
TIP IN0/3
BACKHAND1/6
DEFLECTED0/0
POKE0/1
OTHER0/24
SJS
NJD
Off the rush
1 G on 20
1.96 xG
2 G on 31
3.90 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 1
0.25 xG
0 G on 3
0.44 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: SJS went 0-for-8, NJD 1-for-20. NJD scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
Y. Askarov
SJS · 26/28 · .929
+3.1
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/72.3+0.3
Medium1/192.2+1.2
Low0/440.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Allen
NJD · 16/17 · .941
+1.5
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/40.9+0.9
Medium1/91.0+0.0
Low0/320.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

72 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
SJS
26 shots
1
Final
72 shots
NJD
46 shots
3
SJS attackNJD attack
SJS NJD Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — SJS left, NJD right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
D. Hamilton
#7 · D · NJD
2 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 25:51 on ice · +1
N. Hischier
#13 · C · NJD
0 G · 3 A · 5 SOG · 22:03 on ice · +1
M. Celebrini
#71 · C · SJS
0 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 22:07 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Oct 24
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:57 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model sees this as pick'em. SJS 2.4-2.6, NJD at 54% win probability — genuinely the closest you'll find in matchmaking.

The Devils are the better-rested team by points pace: 7-1-2 over their last 10. The Sharks are underwater, sitting at -14 goal differential over the same stretch. At 5v5, New Jersey's advantage is narrow but tangible. The Devils own 50.0% xG% and 51.0% Corsi%. San Jose measures 48.0% xG and 47.0% Corsi. Territorial control compounds across 60 minutes.

New Jersey is running cold, though. Their PDO is 0.971, which means positive regression is coming. The bounces will find them. That's not prediction; that's math.

Goaltending could flip the result. A. Nedeljkovic is on a back-to-back. Watch for a tired starter or a surprise backup.

Players to Watch

SJS

  • Pavol Regenda — 1.10 xG/60, 5G 1A, 2 HD goals, 16.1% shooting (marked inactive)
  • Igor Chernyshov — 0.91 xG/60, 6G 8A, 1 HD goals, 15.0% shooting

NJD

  • Timo Meier — 1.08 xG/60, 13G 15A, 3 HD goals, 6.7% shooting
  • Jack Hughes — 0.88 xG/60, 18G 17A, 1 HD goals, 11.5% shooting

The Devils drive play and draw high-danger chances at superior rates, a structural advantage built on sustained possession. Neither team generates secondary chances efficiently: 0% on rebounds, 0% on hard goals. The Sharks' defensive liability is Chernyshov; New Jersey's is Johnathan Kovacevic.

Take New Jersey at home. Their territorial edge and regression trajectory favor the Devils. Nedeljkovic's status is the only question mark; confirm he's starting before you commit. If the backup draws, the probability curve flattens considerably.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

NJD 54%
54%
NJD
Model favorite
46%
54%
SJS50NJD

NJD by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score SJS 2.4–2.6 NJD; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →NJD
48.0%50.0%
47.0%51.0%
2.332.45
2.562.50
1.991.66
2.322.23
0.9980.971

NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 0.971) says SJS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
SJS
2-6-2
-14 GD · 1d rest
NJD
7-1-2
+10 GD · 2d rest
0.998
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Devils drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Devils drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • A. Nedeljkovic is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Devils are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-2 in their last 10).
  • The Sharks are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
SJS
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
back-to-back.821 last start
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -18.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

NJD
Expected in goal
N. Daws
2 days rest.968 last start
Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
SJS
Pavol Regenda5G 1A
1.10 xG/60 · 2 HD · 16.1% sh
Igor Chernyshov6G 8A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 15.0% sh
NJD
Timo Meier13G 15A
1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh
Jack Hughes18G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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