Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater

Breakdown · WSH at CBJ

L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Blue Jackets

FinalFri, Oct 24

WSHWashington Capitals5 CBJColumbus Blue Jackets1

The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.34–5.21 and won anyway.

WSH 5 · CBJ 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:00 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals won 5-1, but expected goals disagreed: the Blue Jackets generated 5.21 xG to Washington's 4.34, a 55–45 split that suggested a much tighter contest. L. Thompson made the difference. The goaltender stopped 4.21 goals above expected, saving 92% on 12 high-danger chances and transforming a narrow edge into a rout.

The Blue Jackets controlled play. They held 54% of shot attempts (35–30 on goal), created 12 high-danger chances to Washington's 9, and forced 5 rebound opportunities. On any other night, this is a win.

But Columbus couldn't convert. The Blue Jackets finished 4.21 goals below their expected output. J. Greaves allowed 25 of 30 shots (0.833 save percentage), squandering their advantage.

Washington won on ruthlessness. The Capitals generated just 8 rebound chances (1 converted) and 9 high-danger opportunities, but converted when it mattered: 2 power-play goals on 15 shots (1.97 xG), plus Connor McMichael's batted-in shot from the doorstep at 16:37 of the third. That's execution—and the power play that decided the game.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 24

WSH

CBJ

L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Blue Jackets

Chances 4.3 – 5.2Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

4.34

CBJ

5.21

45% of the chances55%

The board read WSH 5, CBJ 1. The chances read WSH 4.3, CBJ 5.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

WSH

+0.7

goals above expected

WSH4.34 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

CBJ5.21 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Blue Jackets left 4.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 18:19WSHJ. Carlson1–0
P3 01:36WSHA. Ovechkin2–0
P3 02:40WSHJ. Sourdif3–0
P3 10:20CBJD. Mateychuk3–1
P3 15:39WSHT. WilsonPP4–1
P3 16:37WSHC. McMichaelPP5–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

44 shots

Final

98 shots

CBJ

54 shots

WSH CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHCBJ

2 / 9

2.24 xG

High danger

1 / 12

2.75 xG

2 / 14

1.46 xG

Medium

0 / 18

1.71 xG

1 / 30

0.64 xG

Low

0 / 36

0.74 xG

The Capitals buried 2 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

L. Thompson

+4.2

WSH · 34/35

J. Greaves

−0.7

CBJ · 25/30

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 12–12no goals

2ndshots 2–10

18:19WSHJ. Carlson(C. McMichael, H. Lapierre)1–0

3rdshots 16–13

01:36WSHA. Ovechkin(D. Strome)2–0
02:40WSHJ. Sourdif(R. Leonard, L. Thompson)3–0
10:20CBJD. Mateychuk(S. Monahan, D. Voronkov)3–1
15:39WSHT. Wilsonpower play(E. Frank, J. Carlson)4–1
16:37WSHC. McMichaelpower play(A. Ovechkin, A. Protas)5–1

score reads WSH–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.34

WSH chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.7

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.079

WSH puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.34Expected goals5.21

CBJ 55% of the chance quality

30Shots on goal35

9High-danger chances12

53All attempts (Corsi)66

Adjusted for score: WSH 42% · CBJ 58%

Faceoffs · CBJ won50%off53%neu36%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH2 / 9 · 2.24 xG

CBJ1 / 12 · 2.75 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH2 / 14 · 1.46 xG

CBJ0 / 18 · 1.71 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH1 / 30 · 0.64 xG

CBJ0 / 36 · 0.74 xG

CBJ went 1-for-12 from high danger on 2.75 expected goals — 1.8 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

5 G · 4.34 xG · +0.7

CBJ

1 G · 5.21 xG · -4.2

0123456

WSH finished +0.7 against expected, CBJ -4.2.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

SNAP1/20

WRIST1/8

SLAP1/8

BACKHAND1/3

TIP IN0/4

BAT1/1

OTHER0/9

CBJ

SNAP0/26

WRIST1/17

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/7

TIP IN0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/12

WSH

CBJ

Off the rush

1 G on 24

2.00 xG

1 G on 39

3.68 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 8

1.00 xG

0 G on 5

0.96 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: WSH went 1-for-20, CBJ 0-for-26.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

L. Thompson

WSH · 34/35 · .971

+4.2

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/122.8+1.8

Medium0/181.7+1.7

Low0/360.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves

CBJ · 25/30 · .833

-0.7

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/92.2+0.2

Medium2/141.5-0.5

Low1/300.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

98 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

44 shots

Final

98 shots

CBJ

54 shots

WSH CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Carlson

#74 · D · WSH

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 25:43 on ice · +1

A. Ovechkin

#8 · L · WSH

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:15 on ice · +1

C. McMichael

#24 · L · WSH

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 14:45 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Oct 24

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:11 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Blue Jackets enter as slight favorites. MoneyPuck models project a 2.5–2.8 goal game with Columbus favored at 54% win probability—effectively a pick'em.

Washington arrives in strong form, posting 7-3-0 over its last 10 games. The underlying metrics tell a different story. The Capitals own just 50.0% expected-goals share at 5v5 and trail 49.0% in Corsi, suggesting their recent run leans on efficiency rather than volume. With a PDO of 1.018, Washington is running hot—expect regression.

Columbus grades ahead in both categories: 52.0% xG% and 51.0% Corsi%. The Blue Jackets' PDO of 1.003 tracks closer to their play, indicating less unsustainable luck.

The offensive battle hinges on four players. Alex Ovechkin leads Washington with 0.97 xG/60 on 19 goals and 17 assists, including 2 high-danger goals on a 13.8% shooting rate. Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 9 assists) carries 2 high-danger goals on 10.4% shooting. For Columbus, Boone Jenner matches Ovechkin's 0.98 xG/60 with 11 goals, 21 assists, 2 high-danger goals, and 9.6% shooting. Mathieu Olivier (0.89 xG/60, 12 goals, 9 assists) carries more volatility: 13.3% shooting but just 1 high-danger goal.

Both teams leak defensively. Declan Chisholm is Washington's weak link; Conor Garland fills that role for Columbus. More alarming: neither team registers a high-danger goal rate or rebound-goal rate above 0%, suggesting both struggle to generate second chances or convert slot opportunities.

This is chaos with a slight Columbus lean. Trust the model.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 54%

54%

CBJ

Model favorite

46%

54%

WSH50CBJ

CBJ by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WSH 2.5–2.8 CBJ; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →CBJ

50.0%52.0%

49.0%51.0%

2.622.63

2.622.43

2.182.12

1.791.98

1.0181.003

CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 1.003) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

7-3-0

+8 GD · 3d rest

CBJ

4-6-0

+1 GD · 2d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.003

CBJ PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Capitals are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

3 days rest.947 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CBJ

Expected in goal

E. Merzlikins

2 days rest.957 last start

Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

CBJ

Boone Jenner11G 21A

0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh

Mathieu Olivier12G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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