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Motion-blurred skater in a Winnipeg Jets sweater
← Fri, Oct 24 · the slate
Breakdown · CGY at WPG

Jets hold off the Flames

FinalFri, Oct 24
CGYCalgary Flames3WPGWinnipeg Jets5
The verdict · coin flip

The Jets won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

CGY 3 · WPG 5
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:58 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Flames dominated the underlying play—eight high-danger chances to four—yet the Jets escaped with a 5-3 win. E. Comrie and a lethal power play made the difference.

Winnipeg held 49% of shot attempts but squeezed more value from fewer chances. The Flames crashed the net effectively (nine rebound opportunities) without converting; the Jets created seven rebound chances and converted 2 power-play goals on 18 shots (1.44 xG), turning close underlying play into a decisive scoreline.

E. Comrie was the catalyst, stopping 1.4 goals above expected. His 0.909 save percentage in 30/33 saves stood in sharp contrast to D. Wolf's 0.871 (27/31)—the gap between escape and regret.

Three Stars

  • #44 J. Morrissey (WPG) — 3A in 26:13
  • #55 M. Scheifele (WPG) — 2A in 21:54
  • #13 G. Vilardi (WPG) — 1G, 1A in 18:56
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 24
CGY
3
WPG
5

Jets hold off the Flames

Chances 4.4 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Jets took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
CGY
4.41
WPG
4.29
51% of the chances49%

The board read CGY 3, WPG 5. The chances read CGY 4.4, WPG 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WPG
+0.7
goals above expected
WPG4.29 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
CGY4.41 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 05:18CGYN. KadriPP1–0
  2. P2 05:19WPGK. Connor1–1
  3. P2 06:24WPGJ. Toews1–2
  4. P2 09:50WPGG. VilardiPP1–3
  5. P2 13:56CGYM. Backlund2–3
  6. P2 18:50WPGA. IafalloPP2–4
  7. P3 08:27CGYB. Coleman3–4
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CGY
44 shots
3
Final
89 shots
WPG
45 shots
5
CGY attackWPG attack
CGY WPG Goal
44
shots · 3 in
45
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CGYWPG
2 / 8
1.98 xG
High danger
1 / 4
1.24 xG
0 / 15
1.74 xG
Medium
4 / 23
2.58 xG
1 / 40
0.69 xG
Low
0 / 28
0.48 xG

High-danger looks: CGY 2 of 8, WPG 1 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
E. Comrie
+1.4
WPG · 30/33
B
D. Wolf
+0.3
CGY · 27/31
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Jets hold off the Flames

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–5
  1. 05:18CGYN. Kadripower play(M. Frost, Z. Parekh)1–0
2ndshots 9–16
  1. 05:19WPGK. Connor(J. Morrissey, D. DeMelo)1–1
  2. 06:24WPGJ. Toews(J. Morrissey)1–2
  3. 09:50WPGG. Vilardipower play(M. Scheifele, J. Morrissey)1–3
  4. 13:56CGYM. Backlund(B. Coleman, S. Honzek)2–3
  5. 18:50WPGA. Iafallopower play(G. Vilardi, M. Scheifele)2–4
3rdshots 15–11
  1. 08:27CGYB. Coleman(M. Backlund, K. Bahl)3–4
  2. 19:52WPGV. Namestnikovempty net(L. Stanley)3–5

score reads CGY–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.29
WPG chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.7
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.043
WPG puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
46.6%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.41Expected goals4.29
CGY 51% of the chance quality
33Shots on goal32
8High-danger chances4
63All attempts (Corsi)55
Adjusted for score: CGY 55% · WPG 45%
Faceoffs · WPG won55%off73%neu53%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CGY2 / 8 · 1.98 xG
WPG1 / 4 · 1.24 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CGY0 / 15 · 1.74 xG
WPG4 / 23 · 2.58 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CGY1 / 40 · 0.69 xG
WPG0 / 28 · 0.48 xG

CGY went 0-for-15 from medium danger on 1.74 expected goals — 1.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CGY
3 G · 4.41 xG · -1.4
WPG
5 G · 4.29 xG · +0.7
0123456

CGY finished -1.4 against expected, WPG +0.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CGY
WRIST2/28
SLAP0/6
BACKHAND0/3
SNAP1/3
TIP IN0/2
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/1
OTHER0/19
WPG
WRIST2/21
SLAP0/13
BACKHAND1/5
SNAP1/3
TIP IN1/2
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/0
OTHER0/10
CGY
WPG
Off the rush
3 G on 30
2.48 xG
4 G on 28
2.58 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 9
1.80 xG
0 G on 7
0.68 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CGY went 2-for-28, WPG 2-for-21. WPG scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
D. Wolf
CGY · 27/31 · .871
+0.3
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/41.2+0.2
Medium4/232.6-1.4
Low0/280.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

E. Comrie
WPG · 30/33 · .909
+1.4
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/82.0-0.0
Medium0/151.7+1.7
Low1/400.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CGY
44 shots
3
Final
89 shots
WPG
45 shots
5
CGY attackWPG attack
CGY WPG Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CGY left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Morrissey
#44 · D · WPG
0 G · 3 A · 2 SOG · 26:13 on ice · +3
M. Scheifele
#55 · C · WPG
0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 21:54 on ice
G. Vilardi
#13 · C · WPG
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:56 on ice · -1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Oct 24
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 12:57 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal spread with Winnipeg at 53% win probability. This is essentially a pick'em.

The Jets are the hotter team, posting a 7-3-0 record over their last ten games. Calgary has struggled, carrying a -24 goal differential into this one. That deficit matters, but the Flames' underlying shot quality at even strength tells a different story: their expected goal share sits at 47.0%, barely below Winnipeg's 48.0%, and their Corsi figures are identical at 49.0%. Where Calgary looks truly vulnerable is their PDO—a ratio of actual to expected goals—sitting at 0.985, well below Winnipeg's 0.998. A PDO that low signals poor puck luck; regression typically follows.

The Flames also face a rest disadvantage. Winnipeg arrives on three days off while Calgary skates in on just one, a gap that compounds an already uncertain goaltending picture. D. Wolf comes in on the back half of a back-to-back, raising the possibility of a tired starter.

Blake Coleman anchors Calgary's offense with a 0.89 xG per 60 minutes and carries 16 goals against 12 assists, with two high-danger conversions. Matt Coronato pairs effectively up front despite a 6.6% shooting rate, generating 0.80 xG/60 with 10 goals and 16 assists. For Winnipeg, Nino Niederreiter matches Coleman's expected production at 0.87 xG/60 while sitting at just 6 goals and 6 assists—his three high-danger finishes suggest his ice impact exceeds his point total. Kyle Connor is the cleaner finisher with 25 goals, 30 assists, and a consistent 13.0% shooting rate; his 0.83 xG/60 is efficient and sustainable.

The Jets' edge rests on rest, momentum, and the goaltending advantage. Calgary's path to victory depends on regression—the Flames' poor puck luck evening out—and their ability to exploit the underlying quality they generate. This genuinely goes either way.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WPG 53%
53%
WPG
Model favorite
47%
53%
CGY50WPG

WPG by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CGY 2.5–2.6 WPG; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →WPG
47.0%48.0%
49.0%49.0%
2.362.34
2.662.55
1.761.90
2.152.10
0.9850.998

WPG holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.985 vs 0.998) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CGY
1-7-2
-24 GD · 1d rest
WPG
7-3-0
+8 GD · 3d rest
0.985
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • D. Wolf is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Jets are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
  • The Flames are underwater at -24 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Flames' PDO is 0.985 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Jets have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CGY
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
back-to-back.929 last start
Backup Dustin Wolf · -1.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG
Expected in goal
C. Hellebuyck
3 days rest.970 last start
Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CGY
Blake Coleman16G 12A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.4% sh
Matt Coronato10G 16A
0.80 xG/60 · 0 HD · 6.6% sh
WPG
Nino Niederreiter6G 6A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh
Kyle Connor25G 30A
0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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