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Breakdown · COL at BOS

Bruins steal one from the Avalanche against the run of play

FinalSat, Oct 25

COLColorado Avalanche2 BOSBoston Bruins3

The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.14–2.91 and won anyway.

COL 2 · BOS 3

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:02 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Bruins won 3-2, but Colorado's underlying metrics screamed otherwise: the Avalanche generated 59% of expected goals (4.14–2.91). This was decided not by dominance but by ruthlessness.

Boston was outshot decisively (19–33) and out-muscled in the high-danger area (4 chances to Colorado's 7). Yet J. Swayman's 0.939 save percentage—worth 2.1 extra goals against expectation—made them prevail.

The quality gap told the real story. Boston's shots averaged 0.071 expected goals; Colorado's, just 0.049. On the rush, both teams scored twice, but the Bruins did it on 20 chances to Colorado's 33. Precision over volume.

S. Wedgewood's 0.842 save percentage couldn't overcome that. M. Lohrei (3A) orchestrated Boston's attack; N. MacKinnon (2A) and A. Lehkonen (2G) couldn't deliver for Colorado. The Bruins stole one that every metric said they shouldn't.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Oct 25

COL

BOS

Bruins steal one from the Avalanche against the run of play

Chances 4.1 – 2.9Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Avalanche deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

COL

4.14

BOS

2.91

59% of the chances41%

The board read COL 2, BOS 3. The chances read COL 4.1, BOS 2.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

BOS

+0.1

goals above expected

BOS2.91 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

COL4.14 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

The Avalanche left 2.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 04:26COLA. Lehkonen1–0
P1 14:16BOSV. Arvidsson1–1
P1 14:55BOSM. Eyssimont1–2
P2 19:55BOSM. Geekie1–3
P3 19:40COLA. LehkonenPP2–3

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

COL

49 shots

Final

83 shots

BOS

34 shots

COL BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 2 in

shots · 3 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

COLBOS

1 / 7

1.57 xG

High danger

2 / 4

1.19 xG

1 / 15

1.78 xG

Medium

1 / 11

1.25 xG

0 / 62

0.79 xG

Low

0 / 26

0.47 xG

The Bruins buried 2 of 4 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Swayman

+2.1

BOS · 31/33

S. Wedgewood

−0.1

COL · 16/19

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Bruins steal one from the Avalanche against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 11–8

04:26COLA. Lehkonen(N. MacKinnon, C. Makar)1–0
14:16BOSV. Arvidsson(M. Lohrei, C. Mittelstadt)1–1
14:55BOSM. Eyssimont(T. Jeannot, M. Lohrei)1–2

2ndshots 12–7

19:55BOSM. Geekie(D. Pastrnak, M. Lohrei)1–3

3rdshots 10–4

19:40COLA. Lehkonenpower play(N. MacKinnon, V. Nichushkin)2–3

score reads COL–BOS

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.91

BOS chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.049

BOS puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

32.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.14Expected goals2.91

COL 59% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal19

7High-danger chances4

84All attempts (Corsi)41

Adjusted for score: COL 70% · BOS 30%

Faceoffs · BOS won44%off36%neu72%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

COL1 / 7 · 1.57 xG

BOS2 / 4 · 1.19 xG

Medium dangermid-range

COL1 / 15 · 1.78 xG

BOS1 / 11 · 1.25 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

COL0 / 62 · 0.79 xG

BOS0 / 26 · 0.47 xG

BOS went 2-for-4 from high danger on 1.19 expected goals — 0.8 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

COL

2 G · 4.14 xG · -2.1

BOS

3 G · 2.91 xG · +0.1

012345

COL finished -2.1 against expected, BOS +0.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

COL

WRIST0/13

SNAP1/18

SLAP0/6

TIP IN1/6

BACKHAND0/4

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/1

OTHER0/35

BOS

WRIST3/23

SNAP0/1

SLAP0/5

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

BAT0/0

OTHER0/7

COL

BOS

Off the rush

2 G on 33

3.28 xG

2 G on 20

1.60 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.43 xG

1 G on 5

0.64 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: COL went 0-for-13, BOS 3-for-23. COL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Wedgewood

COL · 16/19 · .842

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger2/41.2-0.8

Medium1/111.3+0.3

Low0/260.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Swayman

BOS · 31/33 · .939

+2.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.6+0.6

Medium1/151.8+0.8

Low0/620.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

COL

49 shots

Final

83 shots

BOS

34 shots

COL BOS GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — COL left, BOS right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Lohrei

#6 · D · BOS

0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 18:58 on ice · +2

N. MacKinnon

#29 · C · COL

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 21:38 on ice · +2

A. Lehkonen

#62 · L · COL

2 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 20:54 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Oct 25

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:00 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Colorado is favored by the model, which projects a 2.9-2.5 scoreline and gives the Avalanche a 56% win probability. That edge flows from a fundamental territorial advantage: Colorado generates 57.0% of 5v5 expected goals and controls 57.0% of Corsi, while Boston trails at 47.0% and 49.0% respectively. Colorado's also been sharper in form, going 5-2-3 in their last 10.

The risk to this lean: both teams are running hot. Colorado's PDO of 1.021 and Boston's 1.023 mean expect some regression for both—that shrinks the projected edge considerably.

T. Miner faces a back-to-back for Boston, adding uncertainty in goal.

The game lives in a few names. Artturi Lehkonen anchors Colorado's offense at 1.11 xG/60 with 18 goals and 22 assists, including six high-danger chances and a 14.9% shooting rate. Ross Colton's 4.9% shooting rate trails his 1.10 xG/60, a pairing to monitor. Viktor Arvidsson (1.04 xG/60, 18 goals, 24 assists) provides Boston's main threat, though his two high-danger goals are outpaced by Lehkonen's six. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6 goals) operates at a more modest rate.

Defensively, Nazem Kadri is Colorado's liability, Elias Lindholm Boston's.

Players to Watch

Artturi Lehkonen (COL) — 1.11 xG/60, 18G 22A, 6 HD goals, 14.9% shooting
Viktor Arvidsson (BOS) — 1.04 xG/60, 18G 24A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting
Ross Colton (COL) — 1.10 xG/60, 7G 15A, 1 HD goal, 4.9% shooting
Tanner Jeannot (BOS) — 0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

COL 56%

56%

COL

Model favorite

56%

44%

COL50BOS

COL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 2.9–2.5 BOS; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

COL← edge

edge →BOS

57.0%47.0%

57.0%49.0%

3.032.39

2.302.67

2.632.22

1.561.82

1.0211.023

COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 1.023) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

COL

5-2-3

+7 GD · 1d rest

BOS

4-6-0

-1 GD · 2d rest

1.021

COL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.023

BOS PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Avalanche own the underlying play — 57.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.0%.
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 57.0% — expect territorial tilt.
T. Miner is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-3 in their last 10).
The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

COL

Expected in goal

T. Miner

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Scott Wedgewood · +23.1 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

BOS

Expected in goal

J. Korpisalo

2 days rest.793 last start

Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

COL

Artturi Lehkonen18G 22A

1.11 xG/60 · 6 HD · 14.9% sh

Ross Colton7G 15A

1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.9% sh

BOS

Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A

1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh

Tanner Jeannot6G 14A

0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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