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← Sat, Oct 25 · the slate
Breakdown · OTT at WSH

Senators run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalSat, Oct 25
OTTOttawa Senators7WSHWashington Capitals1
The verdict · earned

The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

OTT 7 · WSH 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:09 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Senators demolished the Capitals 7-1. The underlying numbers did not dissent—Ottawa controlled 69% of 5v5 xG (4.47–2.05) through superior shot quality: 0.078 expected goals per shot versus Washington's 0.038.

This efficiency gap materialized in goaltending variance. L. Ullmark faced cleaner chances and posted a 0.923 save percentage, crediting 1.05 goals above expected. C. Lindgren confronted the inverse: a 0.794 save percentage on 27 saves against 34 shots, 2.53 goals below expected—underperformance rooted in shot quality rather than volume.

The Senators' assault came from multiple angles. On 29 rush chances, they converted 4 into goals. Net-crashing yielded 6 rebound opportunities, 2 converted. The power play was clinical: 3 goals on 9 shots (1.00 xG). Drake Batherson's snap shot from the doorstep (P3, 14:22) encapsulated the pattern—Ottawa manufactured higher-percentage chances and buried them.

The Senators overperformed their xG by 2.53 goals, a margin reflecting elite execution rather than variance.

Final: OTT 7 – WSH 1

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 25
OTT
7
WSH
1

Senators run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.5 – 2.0Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Senators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
OTT
4.47
WSH
2.05
69% of the chances31%

The board read OTT 7, WSH 1. The chances read OTT 4.5, WSH 2.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
OTT
+2.5
goals above expected
OTT4.47 expected · 7 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH2.05 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Senators scored 2.5 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 01:58OTTD. Cozens1–0
  2. P2 03:27OTTS. Pinto2–0
  3. P2 04:27OTTD. CozensPP3–0
  4. P2 06:22OTTN. Cousins4–0
  5. P3 00:55OTTD. BathersonPP5–0
  6. P3 05:04WSHT. van Riemsdyk5–1
  7. P3 09:47OTTT. ChabotPP6–1
+1 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
OTT
45 shots
7
Final
74 shots
WSH
29 shots
1
OTT attackWSH attack
OTT WSH Goal
45
shots · 7 in
29
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
OTTWSH
3 / 8
1.84 xG
High danger
0 / 4
1.01 xG
3 / 20
2.15 xG
Medium
1 / 5
0.55 xG
1 / 29
0.48 xG
Low
0 / 45
0.48 xG

The Capitals went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
L. Ullmark
+1.1
OTT · 12/13
F
C. Lindgren
−2.5
WSH · 27/34
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Senators run the Capitals off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–3
  1. 01:58OTTD. Cozens(A. Zub, D. Perron)1–0
2ndshots 11–3
  1. 03:27OTTS. Pinto2–0
  2. 04:27OTTD. Cozenspower play(D. Batherson, T. Stützle)3–0
  3. 06:22OTTN. Cousins(T. Stützle)4–0
3rdshots 15–7
  1. 00:55OTTD. Bathersonpower play(D. Cozens, C. Giroux)5–0
  2. 05:04WSHT. van Riemsdyk(R. Leonard, N. Dowd)5–1
  3. 09:47OTTT. Chabotpower play(C. Giroux, D. Perron)6–1
  4. 14:22OTTD. Batherson(J. Sanderson, A. Zub)7–1

score reads OTT–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.47
OTT chances
Goals their shots were worth
+2.5
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.104
OTT puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
51.4%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.47Expected goals2.05
OTT 69% of the chance quality
34Shots on goal13
8High-danger chances4
57All attempts (Corsi)54
Adjusted for score: OTT 45% · WSH 55%
Faceoffs · WSH won33%off39%neu44%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
OTT3 / 8 · 1.84 xG
WSH0 / 4 · 1.01 xG
Medium dangermid-range
OTT3 / 20 · 2.15 xG
WSH1 / 5 · 0.55 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
OTT1 / 29 · 0.48 xG
WSH0 / 45 · 0.48 xG

OTT went 3-for-8 from high danger on 1.84 expected goals — 1.2 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
OTT
7 G · 4.47 xG · +2.5
WSH
1 G · 2.05 xG · -1.1
012345678

OTT finished +2.5 against expected, WSH -1.1.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
OTT
SNAP2/23
WRIST2/5
BACKHAND2/6
TIP IN1/6
SLAP0/3
BAT0/2
WRAP AROUND0/0
OTHER0/12
WSH
SNAP0/15
WRIST0/4
BACKHAND1/3
TIP IN0/2
SLAP0/4
BAT0/0
WRAP AROUND0/1
OTHER0/25
OTT
WSH
Off the rush
4 G on 29
3.13 xG
0 G on 18
1.62 xG
Off rebounds
2 G on 6
1.05 xG
1 G on 1
0.08 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: OTT went 2-for-23, WSH 0-for-15. OTT scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
L. Ullmark
OTT · 12/13 · .923
+1.1
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/41.0+1.0
Medium1/50.6-0.5
Low0/450.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Lindgren
WSH · 27/34 · .794
-2.5
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/81.8-1.2
Medium3/202.1-0.8
Low1/290.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

74 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
OTT
45 shots
7
Final
74 shots
WSH
29 shots
1
OTT attackWSH attack
OTT WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — OTT left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
D. Cozens
#24 · C · OTT
2 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · 19:44 on ice
D. Batherson
#19 · R · OTT
2 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 11:47 on ice · +1
A. Zub
#2 · D · OTT
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 18:12 on ice · +4
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Oct 25
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:06 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model sees this as nearly even: Senators at 53% win probability, projected score 2.6-2.5 Ottawa. A pick'em doesn't capture the full story, though.

The Capitals enter hotter, posting a 7-3-0 record over their last 10 games. The Senators, meanwhile, sit at -14 goal differential in that same stretch—a sign of play that hasn't yet translated to results. Form favors Washington here.

But the underlying numbers tell a different story. At 5v5, the Senators own a 56.0% expected-goals share versus Washington's 50.0%, and control territory at 53.0% Corsi. They're tilting the ice consistently. This is where the edge lives: Ottawa is generating better chances, even if recent results don't reflect it yet.

Washington's path relies on regression. The Capitals are running at a 1.018 PDO, well above league average. That luck—converting at a higher rate than underlying play justifies—tends to correct. Ottawa's 0.993 PDO tells the opposite story: they're leaving goals on the table. If those percentages normalize, the Senators' superior play carries the game.

L. Thompson faces a back-to-back start. Monitor whether Ottawa leans on the backup or pushes the starter through; fatigue shapes these matchups.

Defensively, Nick Jensen for Ottawa and Declan Chisholm for Washington both represent vulnerabilities that either side could exploit.

Players to Watch

  • Brady Tkachuk (1.19 xG/60, 11 goals, 20 assists, 2 HD goals, 7.5% shooting)
  • Dylan Cozens (1.00 xG/60, 13 goals, 15 assists, 1 HD goal, 9.5% shooting)
  • Alex Ovechkin (0.97 xG/60, 19 goals, 17 assists, 2 HD goals, 13.8% shooting)
  • Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 9 assists, 2 HD goals, 10.4% shooting)
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 53%
53%
OTT
Model favorite
53%
47%
OTT50WSH

OTT by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score OTT 2.6–2.5 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →WSH
56.0%50.0%
53.0%49.0%
2.662.62
2.122.62
2.182.18
1.991.79
0.9931.018

OTT holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
4-5-1
-14 GD · 2d rest
WSH
7-3-0
+11 GD · 1d rest
0.993
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
  • The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Capitals are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
  • The Senators are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
OTT
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
2 days rest.957 last start
Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
back-to-back.971 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
OTT
Brady Tkachuk11G 20A
1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh
Dylan Cozens13G 15A
1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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