The Stars earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Dallas dominated by the numbers in ways the scoreboard barely reflected. The 3-2 final masked a 65-35 expected-goal split — the Stars generated 5.18 xG to Nashville's 2.80, the kind of gap that usually yields a three-or four-goal margin, not a single one.
The Predators had the shot volume (47% of attempts, 25 shots on goal to Dallas' 28) but not the danger. Nashville generated just 0.049 xG per shot; Dallas created three times that rate at 0.096. High-danger chances went 3–9 in Dallas' favor.
Here's where the evening fractured from the scoreboard: C. DeSmith stopped 23 of 25 shots (0.920 SV%), beating his expected save percentage by 0.80 goals — solid work. But J. Annunen, Nashville's goaltender, stopped 25 of 28 and finished 2.18 goals above expected, effectively stealing back what Dallas' dominant underlying play should have delivered. Annunen was near-perfect on high-danger attempts, saving all nine.
Dallas got their chances. They went 0 for 9 on high-danger looks — a brutal conversion rate that won't repeat. They were lethal off the rush, though, converting three of 24 chances. M. Rantanen's wrist shot from the slot in the third period exemplified Dallas' efficiency on simpler plays.
The Stars' depth offensive attack shone in their top names: J. Robertson collected two assists in nearly 25 minutes of ice time, while T. Harley chipped in one assist from the blue line.
Nashville created four rebound opportunities and converted one. Dallas created five and converted none — marginal differences, but they add up when your goaltender isn't bailing you out.
The underlying dominance eventually mattered, even if barely.