The Flames won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
The 5-1 scoreline lied. By expected goals—the underlying shot quality measure—the Rangers were nearly even with Calgary, trailing only 3.06–3.21. But goaltending variance and puck luck turned the close underlying game into a blowout.
D. Wolf was immaculate for the Flames. He stopped 30 of 31 shots (0.968 SV%), earning him 2.21 goals above expected—theft-grade play that single-handedly swung the game. I. Shesterkin made 25 saves on 30 shots and surrendered 1.94 goals worse than expected, well short of what his quality of chances demanded.
Calgary's lethality came in two places. They scored three goals from low-danger areas—areas where opposing goalies are supposed to make the save—and capitalized on the rush at a brutal rate: 3 goals on 28 attempts. The Rangers generated quality but couldn't finish. They underperformed their expected goals by 2.2, a cautionary tale of wasted chances.
B. Coleman was the catalyst. His 2-goal, 18:24-minute night gave Calgary its spark; N. Kadri added a goal and assist in the same ice time; M. Backlund potted two assists in 16:43. Calgary's high-danger chances favored them 5–3, and they translated that edge into volume. The Flames held 49% of shot attempts (30–31), a modest edge that the scoreboard magnified.
