The Senators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Ottawa's 7-2 win over Boston masks an expected-goals game that favored the Senators only marginally. The xG split ran 3.15–2.84 — close enough that the Bruins' scoreboard deficit tells a story the underlying numbers don't support. Ottawa outperformed their model by 3.85 goals; Boston undershot theirs by 0.84. This is the scoreboard disagreeing sharply with process.
The Senators controlled shot quality, not volume. They held 45% of shot attempts (23–28 on goal) and generated 0.062 expected goals per shot versus Boston's 0.045 — a meaningful edge in shot danger. High-danger chances favored Ottawa 6–3. That concentration mattered: the Senators finished 50% on HD chances (3 of 6), while Boston converted nothing on their rebound opportunities.
The goaltending split was the game's largest variable. L. Meriläinen (OTT) posted a 0.929 save percentage — 0.84 goals better than expected. J. Swayman (BOS) recorded 16 saves on 23 attempts for a 0.696 mark, performing 3.85 goals worse than his workload suggested.
Ottawa's power play was the other separator: 4 goals on 8 shots, a 0.50 expected-goals rate that no penalty kill can withstand. In transition, Ottawa scored 6 rush-goal opportunities out of 25 attempts; Boston managed 2 from 26 chances — identical volume, opposite conversion.
Viktor Arvidsson's slap shot from the top of the circles at 19:50 of the third period proved to be the turning point.