Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Winnipeg Jets sweater
← Tue, Oct 28 · the slate
Breakdown · WPG at MIN

Jets steal one from the Wild against the run of play

Final / OTTue, Oct 28
WPGWinnipeg Jets4MINMinnesota Wild3
The verdict · stolen

The Jets stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.69–4.32 and won anyway.

WPG 4 · MIN 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:41 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Winnipeg won 4–3 in overtime despite finishing with 38% of expected goals. The Wild owned 62% of the xG battle (4.32–2.69) and controlled 62% of shot attempts at 5v5 — this was a heist driven entirely by goaltending.

C. Hellebuyck stopped 1.32 more goals than expected, while F. Gustavsson allowed 1.31 more than his workload deserved. The gap was stark enough to flip the game: subtract Hellebuyck's overperformance and add Gustavsson's underperformance, and Minnesota wins. The Wild also created more high-danger looks (6–3) and generated nine rebound opportunities to Winnipeg's three, but couldn't finish.

Winnipeg was efficient in transition, scoring twice on 25 rush attempts while Minnesota couldn't capitalize on net-front traffic. Kyle Connor's wrist shot from the high slot at 00:46 of overtime ended it.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Oct 28
WPG
4
MIN
3

Jets steal one from the Wild against the run of play

Chances 2.7 – 4.3Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Wild deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
WPG
2.69
MIN
4.32
38% of the chances62%

The board read WPG 4, MIN 3. The chances read WPG 2.7, MIN 4.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WPG
+1.3
goals above expected
WPG2.69 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
MIN4.32 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 12:16WPGG. Vilardi1–0
  2. P1 12:38WPGV. Namestnikov2–0
  3. P2 06:03MINK. Kaprizov2–1
  4. P2 13:12MINB. Faber2–2
  5. P3 03:48MINM. JohanssonPP2–3
  6. P3 11:35WPGN. Niederreiter3–3
  7. OT 00:46WPGK. Connor4–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WPG
37 shots
4
Final
92 shots
MIN
55 shots
3
WPG attackMIN attack
WPG MIN Goal
37
shots · 4 in
55
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WPGMIN
1 / 3
0.84 xG
High danger
1 / 6
1.42 xG
3 / 11
1.20 xG
Medium
2 / 20
2.27 xG
0 / 34
0.65 xG
Low
0 / 50
0.64 xG

High-danger looks: WPG 1 of 3, MIN 1 of 6.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
C. Hellebuyck
+1.3
WPG · 32/35
D-
F. Gustavsson
−1.3
MIN · 17/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Jets steal one from the Wild against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 9–16
  1. 12:16WPGG. Vilardi(M. Scheifele, L. Stanley)1–0
  2. 12:38WPGV. Namestnikov(N. Pionk, L. Stanley)2–0
2ndshots 5–12
  1. 06:03MINK. Kaprizov(J. Spurgeon, M. Boldy)2–1
  2. 13:12MINB. Faber(M. Rossi, V. Hinostroza)2–2
3rdshots 6–7
  1. 03:48MINM. Johanssonpower play(B. Faber, M. Rossi)2–3
  2. 11:35WPGN. Niederreiter(G. Nyquist, M. Barron)3–3
OTshots 1–0
  1. 00:46WPGK. Connor(M. Scheifele, J. Morrissey)4–3

score reads WPG–MIN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.69
WPG chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.3
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.044
WPG puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
38.7%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.69Expected goals4.32
MIN 62% of the chance quality
21Shots on goal35
3High-danger chances6
48All attempts (Corsi)76
Adjusted for score: WPG 37% · MIN 63%
Faceoffs · MIN won63%off32%neu50%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
WPG1 / 3 · 0.84 xG
MIN1 / 6 · 1.42 xG
Medium dangermid-range
WPG3 / 11 · 1.20 xG
MIN2 / 20 · 2.27 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
WPG0 / 34 · 0.65 xG
MIN0 / 50 · 0.64 xG

WPG went 3-for-11 from medium danger on 1.20 expected goals — 1.8 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
WPG
4 G · 2.69 xG · +1.3
MIN
3 G · 4.32 xG · -1.3
012345

WPG finished +1.3 against expected, MIN -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
WPG
WRIST2/20
SLAP0/7
BACKHAND0/2
SNAP0/2
TIP IN0/4
BAT1/1
DEFLECTED1/1
OTHER0/11
MIN
WRIST2/37
SLAP1/3
BACKHAND0/6
SNAP0/5
TIP IN0/3
BAT0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/21
WPG
MIN
Off the rush
2 G on 25
2.10 xG
1 G on 29
2.11 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 3
0.29 xG
1 G on 9
1.26 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WPG went 2-for-20, MIN 2-for-37. WPG scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. Hellebuyck
WPG · 32/35 · .914
+1.3
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/61.4+0.4
Medium2/202.3+0.3
Low0/500.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

F. Gustavsson
MIN · 17/21 · .810
-1.3
saved above expected
D-
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/30.8-0.2
Medium3/111.2-1.8
Low0/340.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

92 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
WPG
37 shots
4
Final
92 shots
MIN
55 shots
3
WPG attackMIN attack
WPG MIN Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — WPG left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
L. Stanley
#64 · D · WPG
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 22:45 on ice · +2
B. Faber
#7 · D · MIN
1 G · 1 A · 7 SOG · 21:25 on ice · -1
M. Scheifele
#55 · C · WPG
0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 19:09 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Oct 28
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 1:31 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota projects as the lean: the model favors the Wild at 55% win probability, pricing a 2.4–2.7 goal spread in their favor. This verdict rests on superior underlying play at 5v5, where Minnesota owns 52.0% in expected goals compared to Winnipeg's 48.0%—a meaningful edge that typically predicts shot volume and scoring opportunity.

Recent form tells a different story. Winnipeg has momentum at 7-3-0 over their last 10 games, while Minnesota has struggled to convert, sitting at -11 goal differential in the same span. Both teams run 0% on high-danger goals and 0% on rebounds, a paradox that leaves some of their scoring potential on the table.

Kyle Connor (25G, 30A) and Nino Niederreiter (6G, 6A) drive Winnipeg's offense. Connor shoots 13.0%, well above league average, while Niederreiter generates 0.87 expected goals per 60 and has three high-danger chances converted to goals. Defensively, Colin Miller is the weak link.

Matt Boldy (22G, 18A) leads Minnesota with 0.89 xG/60 and five high-danger goals, matching or exceeding Niederreiter's efficiency. Robby Fabbri (0.88 xG/60) offers secondary creation but is likely unavailable. Matt Kiersted represents the defensive liability.

The underlying advantage belongs to the Wild, but Winnipeg's recent execution and Connor's elite conversion keep this closer than MoneyPuck's baseline would suggest.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

MIN 55%
55%
MIN
Model favorite
45%
55%
WPG50MIN

MIN by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 2.4–2.7 MIN; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →MIN
48.0%52.0%
49.0%48.0%
2.342.55
2.552.40
1.902.04
2.101.93
0.9981.007

MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.998 vs 1.007) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WPG
7-3-0
+9 GD · 2d rest
MIN
3-5-2
-11 GD · 2d rest
0.998
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.007
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Things to watch
  • The Wild own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
  • The Jets are the hotter team by points pace (7-3-0 in their last 10).
  • The Wild are underwater at -11 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
WPG
Expected in goal
C. Hellebuyck
2 days rest.906 last start
Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MIN
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
2 days rest.760 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
WPG
Nino Niederreiter6G 6A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh
Kyle Connor25G 30A
0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page