The Lightning earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Tampa Bay's 5–2 win actually understated their dominance. The Predators held 38% of shot attempts (20–32 on goal) but trailed 4.85–2.08 in expected goals — a 70–30 split that reflects a gulf in chance quality, not just volume.
The difference was shot-level ruthlessness. Tampa Bay generated 0.097 xG per shot; Nashville managed 0.048. That 2-to-1 advantage in shot quality explains why the Predators looked busy but never truly threatened.
In the high-danger zone, the gap widened. Tampa Bay buried 4 of 8 dangerous chances (50%), while Nashville converted 3 of 8 — decent finishing that wasted the quality deficit. Rush chances were where Tampa excelled: four goals off 28 rush attempts, a conversion rate that suggests Nashville's transition defense folded under pressure.
Nashville's goaltending told the rest of the story. J. Saros stopped 27 of 31 shots (0.871 SV%), but that marked a +0.85 gap versus expected — he played well and still lost. A. Vasilevskiy needed fewer heroics: 18 of 20 (0.900 SV%), enough to clean up in front of a dominant 5v5 team.
The Predators did find one edge: their power play landed two goals on 20 shots (1.64 xG), proof that special-teams leverage can temporarily match 5v5 class differences. But it wasn't enough to overcome a team that crashed the net effectively (seven rebound opportunities) and capitalized when it mattered.
Zemgus Girgensons's doorstep finish at 19:33 of the third period crystallized it — the kind of close-range look that came because Tampa controlled the forecheck and board play.