The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
The Jets controlled 58% of 5v5 expected goals (3.62–2.65). Their 6-3 victory, however, suggests even greater dominance — they overperformed their xG by 2.38 goals. S. Knight, Chicago's goaltender, conceded 2.38 goals beyond expectation, revealing the full weight of Winnipeg's performance.
Chicago managed only 24 shot attempts to Winnipeg's 32, and the quality gap was starker: Winnipeg generated 0.067 expected goals per shot versus Chicago's 0.047. High-danger chances told the story cleanly — six for Winnipeg, two for Chicago.
Kyle Connor's backhander from the slot (P3, 17:19) was the turning point — the kind of dangerous, opportunistic play that separates wins from close games.
C. Hellebuyck's 0.875 save percentage (21/24) was workmanlike, but Knight's 0.812 (26/32) exposed the Blackhawks' defensive predicament. Winnipeg's rush game was particularly lethal — five goals on 29 chances, compared to Chicago's two on 27. The Jets also cashed in from unlikely spots: two goals from low-danger areas where goaltenders expect to make the save.
What didn't work: Winnipeg converted zero of six high-danger chances in open play, a statistical anomaly that won't repeat. Knight made some saves he had no business making; the final score flattered no one but rewarded the team that played better in every dimension.