The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.89–4.32 and won anyway.
The Rangers' 4–3 overtime victory masked a game where the Oilers controlled the underlying metrics—and left real points on the ice through a combination of their own underperformance and I. Shesterkin's excellence.
Edmonton generated 4.32 expected goals to New York's 3.89, a 53–47 advantage. The Oilers also won the high-danger chances, 6–3, and held 51% of shot attempts (36–35 on goal). By every structural measure, this was an Oilers game. By the scoreboard, it wasn't.
The breakdown: Edmonton underperformed their xG by 1.32 goals—they received chances worth 4.32 goals and converted only three. Meanwhile, I. Shesterkin stopped 1.3 goals above his expected mark, posting a 0.917 save percentage despite Edmonton's high-quality assault. On the other end, S. Skinner recorded 31 saves on 35 shots (0.886 SV%).
The Oilers' rush game became their undoing. They scored just twice on 34 rush attempts. The Rangers, by contrast, buried four on 32 attempts, and when they crashed the net for rebounds, they generated four opportunities (though converted none).
J.T. Miller ended it with a wrist shot from the slot at 02:49 of overtime, converting the single chance that mattered most.
Three Stars
- #25 D. Nurse (EDM) — 2G in 21:00
- #4 B. Schneider (NYR) — 1G, 1A in 20:48
- #96 J. Walman (EDM) — 2A in 18:42
Final: NYR 4 – EDM 3 (OT)
