The Sharks earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
San Jose's 5-2 win masked a closer underlying battle—the Sharks' expected goals totaled just 3.10 to New Jersey's 2.69, a 54–46 split that barely favored the visitors. The Sharks simply converted at a far higher rate: they overperformed their xG by 1.90 goals, while the Devils couldn't capitalize on their high-danger chances (0 for 5).
The Devils generated the more dangerous looks. New Jersey created five high-danger chances at 0.041 xG per shot; the Sharks managed two, but at a superior 0.062 xG per shot. That efficiency gap—plus A. Nedeljkovic's near-perfect high-danger save rate (100% on five shots)—proved decisive.
Where the Sharks pulled away: the rush. They scored four goals on 24 rush attempts; the Devils scored twice on 21. J. Allen (NJD) faced 28 shots and allowed five on 0.821 SV%, underperforming expected by 1.90. A. Nedeljkovic (SJS) stopped 29 of 31 (0.935 SV%), outperforming by 0.69—a stark contrast in the crease that essentially decided the game.
The Sharks held 48% of shot attempts (28 on goal, 31 against) and dominated the rebound battle with four opportunities created and one converted. The Devils' power play was sharp: two goals on six shots, a 0.42 xG rate that didn't match the result.
The stat that most disagreed with the scoreline: the Devils' inability to finish. Zero goals on five high-danger chances is unsustainable; the Sharks' finishing—1.90 goals above xG—is also an outlier heading forward.