The Sharks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.13–2.09 and won anyway.
The Sharks won 3-2 in overtime despite being thoroughly dominated in expected goals. The Avalanche generated 4.13 xG to San Jose's 2.09—a 66%-34% split. That the home team left with one point is the only surprise here.
Y. Askarov made it happen. His 37 saves came at a 0.974 save percentage, nearly 3.13 goals above what the underlying metrics predicted. For Colorado, M. Blackwood faced the inverse: 20 saves on 23 shots, 0.870 SV%, 0.91 goals below expected. The Sharks won a goaltending lottery.
Colorado controlled the puck and created quality chances. They generated five high-danger scoring opportunities to San Jose's one. They crashed the net effectively—four rebound chances, one converted. Yet they underperformed their xG by 2.13 goals overall. A team that should have won left with nothing.
The Sharks were lethal on the rush: three goals on 21 attempts, a rate that doesn't sustain. They capitalized twice from low-danger positions—the kind of finishes that goaltenders have to steal back. Philipp Kurashev's wrist shot from the top of the circles at 01:48 of overtime finished it, giving him two goals in 20:20.
Colorado had chances. C. Makar found assignments in 25:22; D. Toews did the same in 23:39. The gap between their control of play and the scoreboard reflected the gap between what should happen and what did.
Three Stars
- #96 P. Kurashev (SJS) — 2G in 20:20
- #8 C. Makar (COL) — 1A in 25:22
- #7 D. Toews (COL) — 1A in 23:39
