The Canucks stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.37–3.91 and won anyway.
The Canucks' 5-4 overtime victory obscures an uncomfortable truth: Nashville played the better hockey. The Predators led in expected goals, 3.91–3.37, yet finished second. Vancouver won because they finished ruthlessly when it counted.
The underlying discrepancy reveals a Canucks team that overperformed their model by 1.63 goals. B. Boeser's backhander from the slot at 04:58 of overtime settled it—his second goal of the night, one of three assists from E. Pettersson.
Nashville's statistical superiority showed in shot geography and special teams. They held 45% of attempts (29–36 on goal) and dominated the power play: 2 goals on 11 shots (1.31 xG). The Predators were lethal in the high-danger zone—2 goals on 4 chances (50%)—but J. Saros's goaltending cost them the night. At 0.861 SV% on 31 of 36 shots, he underperformed expected numbers by 1.63 goals—the exact margin of defeat.
T. Demko matched Saros's efficiency (0.862 on 25 of 29) despite lighter volume. The real edge came in execution. Both teams scored at rare efficiency off the rush: Vancouver 4 goals on 31 chances, Nashville 3. That sliver—one goal in open ice—was the difference. The Canucks' power play added 3 goals on 12 shots (1.17 xG), sharpening the margin when it mattered.
