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← Tue, Nov 4 · the slate
Breakdown · BOS at NYI

Bruins edge the Islanders in a shootout

Final / OTTue, Nov 4
BOSBoston Bruins4NYINew York Islanders3
The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.05–5.24 and won anyway.

BOS 4 · NYI 3
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 12:56 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Boston stole this one. The Islanders held 56% of expected goals (5.24–4.05) yet lost 4-3 in a shootout. They dominated in possession metrics — 55% of shot attempts, 14 high-danger chances to 7 — and still couldn't close it out.

The math. The Islanders underperformed their xG by 2.24 goals. They went 0/14 on high-danger chances before scoring twice from low-danger spots. Marat Khusnutdinov's snap shot from the slot in the shootout decided it — a result that underlying numbers said shouldn't happen.

Goaltending was the difference. J. Swayman (Boston) posted a 0.909 SV% and saved 2.24 goals above expected. I. Sorokin (Islanders) stopped 24 of 27 at 0.889 SV%, +1.05 above expected, but that couldn't overcome New York's wasted possessions.

The Islanders owned the rush game. They scored 2 goals on 33 rush attempts while Boston managed none — dominance that should have translated. They also generated 6 rebound opportunities but converted zero. Boston created 5 rebounds and converted 2, turning secondary chances into a victory.

This was an open game with 21 high-danger chances combined. Horvat (2G, 24:33) led New York's effort. Lindholm (1A, 26:47) and McAvoy (1A, 23:43) sealed it for Boston. The Islanders controlled play and lost anyway.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Nov 4
BOS
4
NYI
3

Bruins edge the Islanders in a shootout

Chances 4.0 – 5.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Islanders deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
4.05
NYI
5.24
44% of the chances56%

The board read BOS 4, NYI 3. The chances read BOS 4.0, NYI 5.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
−0.1
goals above expected
BOS4.05 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
NYI5.24 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored

The Islanders left 2.2 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 05:11NYIA. Duclair0–1
  2. P2 12:21BOSV. Arvidsson1–1
  3. P2 13:06NYIB. Horvat1–2
  4. P2 17:29BOSP. ZachaPP2–2
  5. P3 05:05NYIB. Horvat2–3
  6. P3 15:06BOSM. Khusnutdinov3–3
  7. SO 00:00BOSM. KhusnutdinovPP3–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
43 shots
4
Final
95 shots
NYI
52 shots
3
BOS attackNYI attack
BOS NYI Goal
43
shots · 4 in
52
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSNYI
0 / 7
1.61 xG
High danger
0 / 14
3.28 xG
3 / 19
2.11 xG
Medium
1 / 12
1.36 xG
0 / 32
0.34 xG
Low
2 / 40
0.60 xG

The Islanders went 0 for 14 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Swayman
+2.2
BOS · 30/33
B+
I. Sorokin
+1.1
NYI · 24/27
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Bruins edge the Islanders in a shootout

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 7–3no goals
    2ndshots 8–18
    1. 05:11NYIA. Duclair(C. Cizikas, K. MacLean)0–1
    2. 12:21BOSV. Arvidsson(H. Lindholm, C. Mittelstadt)1–1
    3. 13:06NYIB. Horvat(M. Barzal, E. Heineman)1–2
    4. 17:29BOSP. Zachapower play(C. McAvoy, M. Geekie)2–2
    3rdshots 11–10
    1. 05:05NYIB. Horvat(M. Schaefer, K. Palmieri)2–3
    2. 15:06BOSM. Khusnutdinov(F. Minten, D. Pastrnak)3–3
    OTshots 1–2no goals
      SO
      1. 00:00BOSM. Khusnutdinovpower play3–3

      score reads BOS–NYI

      Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
      Process vs result

      The numbers

      XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
      4.05
      BOS chances
      Goals their shots were worth
      −0.1
      Finishing
      Goals below what those chances were worth
      1.006
      BOS puck luck
      About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
      46.8%
      Shot attempts
      Under half — they were outshot
      Split by club

      Who controlled the game

      4.05Expected goals5.24
      NYI 56% of the chance quality
      27Shots on goal33
      7High-danger chances14
      58All attempts (Corsi)66
      Adjusted for score: BOS 49% · NYI 51%
      Faceoffs · NYI won41%off63%neu48%def
      Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
      How the game was won

      The danger ladder

      shotsgoalsexpected
      High dangerslot & crease
      BOS0 / 7 · 1.61 xG
      NYI0 / 14 · 3.28 xG
      Medium dangermid-range
      BOS3 / 19 · 2.11 xG
      NYI1 / 12 · 1.36 xG
      Low dangerperimeter & point
      BOS0 / 32 · 0.34 xG
      NYI2 / 40 · 0.60 xG

      NYI went 0-for-14 from high danger on 3.28 expected goals — 3.3 left on the table.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
      The luck layer

      Finishing vs expected

      expectedactual
      BOS
      4 G · 4.05 xG · -0.1
      NYI
      3 G · 5.24 xG · -2.2
      0123456

      BOS finished -0.1 against expected, NYI -2.2.

      Source · Backcheck xG model
      Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
      What they shot — and what went in

      Shot diet

      goalsshots
      BOS
      WRIST2/19
      SNAP0/9
      SLAP0/5
      BACKHAND1/4
      TIP IN0/2
      BAT0/1
      DEFLECTED0/1
      WRAP AROUND0/0
      POKE0/0
      OTHER0/17
      NYI
      WRIST3/21
      SNAP0/14
      SLAP0/8
      BACKHAND0/3
      TIP IN0/0
      BAT0/1
      DEFLECTED0/0
      WRAP AROUND0/1
      POKE0/1
      OTHER0/17
      BOS
      NYI
      Off the rush
      0 G on 23
      2.63 xG
      2 G on 33
      3.79 xG
      Off rebounds
      2 G on 5
      0.64 xG
      0 G on 6
      1.03 xG

      Wrist shots carried the volume: BOS went 2-for-19, NYI 3-for-21. NYI scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

      Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
      New to these numbers?

      Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

      The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

      xG
      Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
      HD
      High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
      Corsi
      Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
      Adj.
      Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
      GSAx
      Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
      PDO
      Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
      Shot by shot

      In the net

      Graded on goals saved above expected
      J. Swayman
      BOS · 30/33 · .909
      +2.2
      saved above expected
      A
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/143.3+3.3
      Medium1/121.4+0.4
      Low2/400.6-1.4

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      I. Sorokin
      NYI · 24/27 · .889
      +1.1
      saved above expected
      B+
      the night
      By dangerG/attxGsaved
      High danger0/71.6+1.6
      Medium3/192.1-0.9
      Low0/320.3+0.3

      A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

      95 shots · press play to watch the game back

      Where the shots came from

      NHL play-by-play coordinates
      BOS
      43 shots
      4
      Final
      95 shots
      NYI
      52 shots
      3
      BOS attackNYI attack
      BOS NYI Goal

      Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, NYI right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

      Ranked from the box score

      Three stars

      Points first
      Three stars · computed, not voted
      B. Horvat
      #14 · C · NYI
      2 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 24:33 on ice · +1
      H. Lindholm
      #27 · D · BOS
      0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 26:47 on ice
      C. McAvoy
      #73 · D · BOS
      0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 23:43 on ice
      Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
      What the model said beforehand

      Before the game

      Written Tue, Nov 4
      Open the pre-game read
      Written from the numbers

      The read

      Edited for clarity
      ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:31 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

      The models call this nearly even: a 2.5 to 2.7 goal spread favoring New York, with the Islanders at 53% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as the season offers.

      The Islanders are the hotter team. They've gone 6-3-1 over their last ten games, while Boston has stumbled to a minus-7 goal differential in the same span. That's the trend story. The underlying numbers tell a different tale.

      At 5v5, these teams are almost perfectly matched. Boston owns 47.0% expected goals—New York 48.0%. Their Corsi percentages are identical at 49.0% each. The Bruins are getting pushed around slightly, but not by much. What separates them isn't depth or system, but variance and execution.

      Boston's PDO sits at 1.023—the Bruins are running hot in the conversion game. The Islanders, at 0.993, are slightly unlucky. This gap is volatile. Expect regression; the Bruins have captured more goals on fewer quality chances than sustainability allows. New York will regain some of that lost ground.

      Viktor Arvidsson is Boston's engine, operating at 1.04 expected goals per 60 minutes with 18 goals and 24 assists. He's hitting 13.0% on his shots and has converted two high-danger opportunities—a player carrying a workload well above salary cap. Tanner Jeannot (0.75 xG/60, 6 goals, 14 assists) operates in the shadows, but his 8.3% shooting rate suggests he's leaving points on the table and will eventually find more.

      Anders Lee anchors the Islanders at 1.20 expected goals per 60 minutes—the highest production rate on either roster. His 9 goals and 20 assists mask the volume he's generating; his 6.4% shooting percentage means he has room to run hotter. Bo Horvat (0.87 xG/60) brings depth scoring with 18 goals and 10 assists, and his 3 high-danger conversions show he's efficient when the spots matter.

      The tactical picture offers no clear edge. Boston's Elias Lindholm represents a defensive weakness, while Alexander Romanov performs the same function for New York. Both teams have built reliable primary scoring weapons but haven't developed consistent secondary scoring depth—a minor leak in an otherwise level matchup.

      This is the kind of game where momentum might steal it, or deeper underlying talent might reassert itself. The Bruins have better historical equity, but the Islanders have the trend line. Call it what it is: a genuine coin flip.

      What the model said beforehand

      The model's lean

      NYI 53%
      53%
      NYI
      Model favorite
      47%
      53%
      BOS50NYI

      NYI by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 2.5–2.7 NYI; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

      Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
      Season rates · 5v5

      Tale of the tape

      NHL stats API · our xG
      BOS← edge
      edge →NYI
      47.0%48.0%
      49.0%49.0%
      2.392.48
      2.672.69
      2.221.78
      1.821.94
      1.0230.993

      The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.023 vs 0.993) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

      Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
      Form · Last 10
      BOS
      4-6-0
      -7 GD · 3d rest
      NYI
      6-3-1
      +1 GD · 2d rest
      1.023
      BOS PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      0.993
      NYI PDO
      Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
      What decides it

      Keys to the game

      Regression watch
      • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Things to watch
      • The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (6-3-1 in their last 10).
      • The Bruins are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
      • The Bruins' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
      Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

      Lineups

      NHL box score
      BOS
      Expected in goal
      J. Swayman
      3 days rest.966 last start
      Backup Jeremy Swayman · +28.8 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      NYI
      Expected in goal
      D. Rittich
      2 days rest.909 last start
      Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

      No completed game on file for this club yet.

      Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

      Computed danger · scouting

      Players to watch

      NHL stats API · our xG
      BOS
      Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
      1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
      Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
      0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
      NYI
      Anders Lee9G 20A
      1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh
      Bo Horvat18G 10A
      0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh
      Keep going

      Where to next

      Back to the front page