The Avalanche earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.
Colorado controlled 66% of expected goals (4.56–2.33) but edged Tampa Bay 3-2, a narrow margin that buried the true scope of their dominance. The Avalanche held the puck in high-danger territory and forced A. Vasilevskiy into the performance of the night.
The evidence is clear. Colorado generated 58% of shot attempts (33–24) and 11 high-danger chances to Tampa Bay's 1. On a per-shot basis, Colorado's chances were nearly twice as efficient: 0.076 expected goals per shot versus 0.039 for the Lightning. Yet the Avalanche underperformed their xG by 1.56 goals — they should have won larger.
A. Vasilevskiy kept Tampa in the game, making 30 saves on 33 shots (0.909 SV%) and stopping 1.56 goals above expected. S. Wedgewood (22/24, 0.917 SV%) was sound for the winners. The game turned on execution. Tampa Bay scored twice from low-danger locations — spots where the goalie needs to have them — and converted 2 goals on 23 rush chances. Colorado crashed the net harder on rebounds (8 opportunities, 2 converted) versus Tampa (3 opportunities, 0 converted), grinding out their edge in second-chance play.
The scoreline flattered the Lightning. Brayden Point's backhander in the third period gave false hope, but Colorado's control never wavered. This was not a close game dressed up as one — the Avalanche dominated the Lightning on the underlying numbers.