The Flames stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.66–3.40 and won anyway.
Calgary won 5–1 but controlled only 42% of expected goals—a reversal so extreme it reads as a theft. The Blue Jackets dominated the underlying play, holding 58% of xG at 5v5 and earning twice as many high-danger chances (7–4), yet walked away with one goal. This was goaltending and finishing executing perfectly in concert.
D. Wolf made 42 of 43 saves (0.977 SV%) and stopped 3.7 goals above expected—a performance that converted Calgary's narrow edge in shot quality (0.076 xG per shot to Columbus's 0.055) into a landslide. J. Greaves faced a heavier workload in a losing effort, stopping 21 of 25 but falling 0.60 goals short of expected.
The stat that broke: Columbus's inability to finish. The Blue Jackets went 0 for 7 on high-danger chances, squandering opportunities that should have compressed the margin. Calgary, meanwhile, scored twice from low-danger spots—exactly the kind of conversion rate that requires the opposing goalie to have an off night. Wolf did not.
Off the rush, Calgary was lethal: three goals on twenty attempts. This wasn't grinding—it was speed and precision. R. Andersson and J. Hanley each logged twenty-plus minutes and an assist, steadying the top line. N. Kadri scored once in 20:13, providing secondary punch. The goal-scoring was distributed enough that Columbus had no single defensive assignment to fix the bleeding.
The turning point arrived early: Mikael Backlund's wrist shot from the point at 19:11 in the third period set the tone for a team that would pile on. Once Calgary found separation, Columbus's dominant play on the scoreboard became irrelevant.
