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Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Wed, Nov 5 · the slate
Breakdown · STL at WSH

Capitals pull away from the Blues

FinalWed, Nov 5
STLSt. Louis Blues1WSHWashington Capitals6
The verdict · earned

The Capitals earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

STL 1 · WSH 6
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:41 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington's 6–1 victory masked a much tighter underlying battle. Expected goals favored the Capitals 4.60–3.07 (a 60–40 split), yet they won by five. Goaltending performance and execution gaps created the gulf.

The Capitals dominated tactically. They held 57% of shot attempts (32–24) and 60% of 5v5 expected goals. High-danger chances split 7–5 in their favor. On underlying metrics, this was a 4–3 or 5–2 game at most.

Execution is where the scoreline exploded. J. Binnington (11/15 saves, 0.733 SV%) conceded 1.8 goals above expected—unsustainable against this volume. St. Louis couldn't finish: 0 for 5 on high-danger chances, squandering their most dangerous looks.

Washington's complementary play amplified the damage. L. Thompson (23/24 saves, 0.958 SV%) stopped 2.07 more than expected and was impenetrable on high-danger shots (5-for-5). The Capitals were lethal off the rush (4 goals on 36 chances) and aggressive on rebounds (2 conversions on 4 created).

Tom Wilson's snap shot from the slot (third period, 09:00) was the dagger.

J. Chychrun orchestrated with 3 assists. J. Carlson (1G, 1A) and A. Beauvillier (2G) supplied the bulk of the finishing.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 5
STL
1
WSH
6

Capitals pull away from the Blues

Chances 3.1 – 4.6Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Capitals earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
STL
3.07
WSH
4.60
40% of the chances60%

The board read STL 1, WSH 6. The chances read STL 3.1, WSH 4.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+1.4
goals above expected
WSH4.60 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
STL3.07 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blues left 2.1 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 09:50WSHT. WilsonPP0–1
  2. P2 02:39WSHA. Ovechkin0–2
  3. P2 04:33WSHA. Beauvillier0–3
  4. P2 09:28WSHJ. Carlson0–4
  5. P2 16:20WSHA. Beauvillier0–5
  6. P3 00:37STLA. ToropchenkoSH1–5
  7. P3 09:00WSHT. Wilson1–6
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
STL
36 shots
1
Final
81 shots
WSH
45 shots
6
STL attackWSH attack
STL WSH Goal
36
shots · 1 in
45
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
STLWSH
0 / 5
1.20 xG
High danger
1 / 7
1.59 xG
1 / 14
1.48 xG
Medium
4 / 20
2.49 xG
0 / 32
0.38 xG
Low
1 / 43
0.53 xG

The Blues went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Hofer
+2.6
STL · 15/17
A
L. Thompson
+2.1
WSH · 23/24
+1 more on the full breakdown
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Capitals pull away from the Blues

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–12
  1. 09:50WSHT. Wilsonpower play(J. Carlson, J. Chychrun)0–1
2ndshots 10–8
  1. 02:39WSHA. Ovechkin(J. Chychrun)0–2
  2. 04:33WSHA. Beauvillier(J. Chychrun)0–3
  3. 09:28WSHJ. Carlson(R. Leonard, M. Fehérváry)0–4
  4. 16:20WSHA. Beauvillier0–5
3rdshots 9–12
  1. 00:37STLA. Toropchenkoshorthanded(P. Suter, C. Fowler)1–5
  2. 09:00WSHT. Wilson(R. Sandin, T. van Riemsdyk)1–6

score reads STL–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
4.60
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.4
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.066
WSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
57.9%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.07Expected goals4.60
WSH 60% of the chance quality
24Shots on goal32
5High-danger chances7
51All attempts (Corsi)70
Adjusted for score: STL 48% · WSH 53%
Faceoffs · WSH won69%off47%neu56%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
STL0 / 5 · 1.20 xG
WSH1 / 7 · 1.59 xG
Medium dangermid-range
STL1 / 14 · 1.48 xG
WSH4 / 20 · 2.49 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
STL0 / 32 · 0.38 xG
WSH1 / 43 · 0.53 xG

WSH went 4-for-20 from medium danger on 2.49 expected goals — 1.5 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
STL
1 G · 3.07 xG · -2.1
WSH
6 G · 4.60 xG · +1.4
01234567

STL finished -2.1 against expected, WSH +1.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
STL
SNAP0/20
SLAP0/6
TIP IN0/2
BACKHAND1/4
WRIST0/3
BAT0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
OTHER0/15
WSH
SNAP3/28
SLAP0/3
TIP IN1/6
BACKHAND2/4
WRIST0/3
BAT0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
OTHER0/25
STL
WSH
Off the rush
0 G on 24
2.12 xG
4 G on 36
3.87 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 3
0.53 xG
2 G on 4
0.64 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: STL went 0-for-20, WSH 3-for-28. WSH scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
J. Hofer
STL · 15/17 · .882
+2.6
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.6+0.6
Medium4/202.5-1.5
Low1/430.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Binnington
STL · 11/15 · .733
+0.6
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/71.6+0.6
Medium4/202.5-1.5
Low1/430.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson
WSH · 23/24 · .958
+2.1
saved above expected
A
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/51.2+1.2
Medium1/141.5+0.5
Low0/320.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
STL
36 shots
1
Final
81 shots
WSH
45 shots
6
STL attackWSH attack
STL WSH Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — STL left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Chychrun
#6 · D · WSH
0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 22:47 on ice · +3
J. Carlson
#74 · D · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:05 on ice · +1
A. Beauvillier
#72 · R · WSH
2 G · 0 A · 2 SOG · 15:10 on ice · +3
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Nov 5
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:40 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5- to 2.6-goal game with Washington favored at 53%—essentially a pick'em. The underlying numbers confirm it: both teams sit in the narrow middle of the league, and the winner will be whichever executes on its few scoring chances.

Washington arrives as the hotter team. The Capitals are 5-4-1 in their last 10 games; St. Louis is -16 in goal differential over the same span. But the underlying play is nearly identical. Washington owns 50.0% expected goals and 49.0% Corsi at 5v5 this season, compared to St. Louis's 49.0% xG% and 48.0% Corsi. Neither team dominates possession or chance creation. The Capitals' 1.018 PDO suggests they're running hot—expect some regression—but the margin is modest enough that variance alone won't decide it.

Washington holds a tangible rest edge: four days since their last game versus St. Louis's one. That compounds in the third period, when tired legs lead to softer coverage. J. Binnington bears watching; the Blues may start a backup if he's worn from recent duty, or field a starter who hasn't fully recovered between starts. Goaltending will be the tiebreaker in this evenly matched game.

St. Louis will lean on its top two forwards to generate scoring opportunities; Washington will counter with elite finishing and secondary depth. Whichever team's stars stay engaged—and whichever goalie makes the crucial stops—will escape with the narrow win. The metrics are balanced and form is the only real differentiator.

Players to Watch

St. Louis

  • Jimmy Snuggerud — 0.86 xG/60, 15G 22A, 2 HD goals, 11.9% shooting
  • Dylan Holloway — 0.82 xG/60, 13G 24A, 1 HD goals, 10.8% shooting

Washington

  • Alex Ovechkin — 0.97 xG/60, 19G 17A, 2 HD goals, 13.8% shooting
  • Anthony Beauvillier — 0.89 xG/60, 14G 9A, 2 HD goals, 10.4% shooting
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 53%
53%
WSH
Model favorite
47%
53%
STL50WSH

WSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score STL 2.5–2.6 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
STL← edge
edge →WSH
49.0%50.0%
48.0%49.0%
2.342.62
2.402.62
2.002.18
2.121.79
1.0001.018

WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.000 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
STL
2-6-2
-16 GD · 1d rest
WSH
5-4-1
+2 GD · 4d rest
1.000
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • J. Binnington is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Capitals are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 in their last 10).
  • The Blues are underwater at -16 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
  • The Capitals have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
STL
Expected in goal
J. Binnington
back-to-back.923 last start
Backup Joel Hofer · +11.7 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH
Expected in goal
C. Lindgren
4 days rest.875 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
STL
Jimmy Snuggerud15G 22A
0.86 xG/60 · 2 HD · 11.9% sh
Dylan Holloway13G 24A
0.82 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.8% sh
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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