Breakdown · NYR at DET

Rangers run the Red Wings off the ice on the underlying numbers

FinalFri, Nov 7

NYRNew York Rangers4 DETDetroit Red Wings1

The verdict · earned

The Rangers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

NYR 4 · DET 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:16 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Detroit dominated puck possession (56% shot attempts) but wasted it. The Rangers controlled the game where it matters: 61% of expected goals at 5v5 (4.45–2.81), creating 0.073 expected goals per shot compared to Detroit's 0.045.

The quality gap opened everything. New York went 3-for-29 on the rush and created five rebound chances (converting one), crashing the net efficiently. Detroit's 33 shot attempts included only six high-danger chances; the Rangers generated nine. That disparity became the 4-1 final.

J. Quick proved decisive. His 0.970 save percentage (32/33) earned him 1.81 goals above expected—he stopped the shots Detroit needed to land. C. Talbot (DET) finished at 0.846, letting soft chances slip. Detroit underperformed its expected goals by 1.81, a reflection of off-target finishing against a dialed-in defense.

The turning point arrived early: A. Lafrenière's wrist shot from the doorstep at 8:27 of the third period. But the game was decided before then, shaped by how the Rangers funneled Detroit's volume into low-danger zones.

A. Panarin (1G, 2A in 18:31) orchestrated the rhythm. M. Zibanejad (2A in 19:23) controlled the middle. A. Lafrenière (1G, 1A in 16:35) cashed in when it mattered. An open game—15 combined high-danger chances—favored the team with better execution and positioning.

A. Panarin (NYR) — 1G, 2A in 18:31
M. Zibanejad (NYR) — 2A in 19:23
A. Lafrenière (NYR) — 1G, 1A in 16:35

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 7

NYR

DET

Rangers run the Red Wings off the ice on the underlying numbers

Chances 4.5 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Rangers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

4.45

DET

2.81

61% of the chances39%

The board read NYR 4, DET 1. The chances read NYR 4.5, DET 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

−0.5

goals above expected

NYR4.45 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

DET2.81 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Red Wings left 1.8 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 06:46NYRW. CuyllePP1–0
P1 11:06DETJ. Compher1–1
P2 04:52NYRN. Laba2–1
P3 07:29NYRA. Panarin3–1
P3 08:27NYRA. Lafrenière4–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

46 shots

Final

89 shots

DET

43 shots

NYR DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRDET

3 / 9

2.16 xG

High danger

1 / 6

1.22 xG

0 / 13

1.56 xG

Medium

0 / 10

1.03 xG

1 / 39

0.73 xG

Low

0 / 47

0.56 xG

The Rangers buried 3 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

J. Quick

+1.8

NYR · 32/33

C. Talbot

+0.5

DET · 22/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Rangers run the Red Wings off the ice on the underlying numbers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 7–13

06:46NYRW. Cuyllepower play(M. Zibanejad, A. Panarin)1–0
11:06DETJ. Compher(M. Appleton, A. Copp)1–1

2ndshots 13–10

04:52NYRN. Laba(A. Lafrenière, A. Panarin)2–1

3rdshots 6–10

07:29NYRA. Panarin(M. Zibanejad, T. Raddysh)3–1
08:27NYRA. Lafrenière(C. Sheary)4–1

score reads NYR–DET

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.45

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

−0.5

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.050

NYR puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

49.2%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.45Expected goals2.81

NYR 61% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal33

9High-danger chances6

61All attempts (Corsi)63

Adjusted for score: NYR 46% · DET 54%

Faceoffs · DET won53%off44%neu39%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR3 / 9 · 2.16 xG

DET1 / 6 · 1.22 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR0 / 13 · 1.56 xG

DET0 / 10 · 1.03 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR1 / 39 · 0.73 xG

DET0 / 47 · 0.56 xG

NYR went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.56 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

4 G · 4.45 xG · -0.5

DET

1 G · 2.81 xG · -1.8

012345

NYR finished -0.5 against expected, DET -1.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST3/24

SNAP0/7

SLAP0/2

TIP IN0/7

BACKHAND0/4

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT1/1

OTHER0/15

DET

WRIST1/18

SNAP0/14

SLAP0/7

TIP IN0/1

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/1

BAT0/0

OTHER0/20

NYR

DET

Off the rush

3 G on 29

2.97 xG

1 G on 28

2.23 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 5

0.96 xG

0 G on 1

0.17 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 3-for-24, DET 1-for-18. NYR scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Quick

NYR · 32/33 · .970

+1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.2+0.2

Medium0/101.0+1.0

Low0/470.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Talbot

DET · 22/26 · .846

+0.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/92.2-0.8

Medium0/131.6+1.6

Low1/390.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

89 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

46 shots

Final

89 shots

DET

43 shots

NYR DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Panarin

#10 · L · NYR

1 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 18:31 on ice · +2

M. Zibanejad

#93 · C · NYR

0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 19:23 on ice · +1

A. Lafrenière

#13 · L · NYR

1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 16:35 on ice · +1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Fri, Nov 7

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 2:56 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is as close to a pick'em as projections get: the model favors Detroit at 52% win probability, with the expected goal spread spanning just 2.4 to 2.5 goals. Both teams' underlying metrics are essentially matched, which means everything hinges on execution and matchups.

The Rangers carry a -8 goal differential over their last 10 games, suggesting they've been playing to their talent ceiling but getting unlucky in close games—precisely the kind of team that can steal one on the road.

At 5v5, Detroit's advantages are marginal. The Red Wings hold a 49.0% expected goals rate to New York's 48.0%, and they're even in Corsi at 49.0% apiece. What tilts Detroit's way is PDO: New York's 1.009 will regress downward, while Detroit's 0.985 has room to normalize upward. The Rangers' shooting will cool; the Red Wings' goaltending should stabilize.

Both teams rely on concentrated firepower at even strength. Adam Sykora generates 0.91 xG per 60 minutes for New York but sits at an unsustainable 20.0% shooting rate—just 3 goals on 1 assist so far. Gabe Perreault (0.79 xG/60) provides steadier production with 8 goals and 11 assists, though only 2 of those are high-danger looks.

Detroit counters with Alex DeBrincat, who's genuinely elite at chance generation. His 0.88 xG/60 has converted into 17 goals and 28 assists, with 2 high-danger markers. Marco Kasper (0.81 xG/60) chips in with 7 goals and 8 assists—but just 1 high-danger goal, a sign that shot luck is evening out.

Both teams have defensive vulnerabilities that could get exposed. New York's Vincent Iorio and Detroit's Axel Sandin-Pellikka project as weak links against the opposition's best forwards. In a coin-flip game, that kind of leverage could decide it.

Detroit's marginal advantages in underlying play and healthy PDO regression tilt toward the home team, but only slightly. This game will be decided by which side converts its chances when it matters.

Players to Watch

Alex DeBrincat (DET) — 0.88 xG/60, 17 goals; Detroit's elite chance creator
Adam Sykora (NYR) — 0.91 xG/60, 20.0% shooting; high-variance outcome waiting to happen
Gabe Perreault (NYR) — 0.79 xG/60, 8 goals, 13.1% shooting; New York's consistency

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DET 52%

52%

DET

Model favorite

48%

52%

NYR50DET

DET by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 2.4–2.5 DET; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →DET

48.0%49.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.262.38

2.402.50

1.881.73

1.902.07

1.0090.985

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (1.009 vs 0.985) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

4-4-2

-8 GD · 2d rest

DET

6-4-0

-1 GD · 2d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.985

DET PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

The Rangers are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

2 days rest.935 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DET

Expected in goal

J. Gibson

2 days rest.971 last start

Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

DET

Alex DeBrincat17G 28A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh

Marco Kasper7G 8A

0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page