The Islanders stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 1.86–4.69 and won anyway.
The Islanders won 3-2 in overtime. The Devils generated 72% of expected goals. This was a heist by New York.
The Devils controlled the shot map — 59% of attempts, 35 to 24 on goal — but the puck traffic didn't translate to the scoreboard. Expected goals finished 4.69 to 1.86, a 72-28 split: New Jersey was substantially more dangerous by every process metric. They generated 7 high-danger chances to the Islanders' 1, creating looks at a higher caliber — 0.063 xG per shot versus 0.048. The Devils should have won this game.
They didn't, because of I. Sorokin. The Islanders' goaltender stopped 33 of 35 shots (0.943 SV%), a +2.69 overperformance that carried overtime. He was a wall on high-danger chances — 100% save percentage on the 7 high-danger shots the Devils generated. J. Markstrom faced easier volume — 21 of 24 shots — yet finished at 0.875 SV%, underperforming his xG by 1.14. The Devils had elite process. Their goaltender didn't match it. The Islanders' goalie wouldn't budge.
The Devils could not finish. Zero goals on seven high-danger chances is variance that doesn't repeat. The Islanders capitalized on what they got: 2 goals on 14 rush chances. Mathew Barzal's overtime winner at 01:17 ended a game New Jersey should have closed out.
New Jersey crashed the crease hard — 7 rebound opportunities created, 0 converted. The Islanders created 3 and converted 1. That marginal efficiency, paired with Sorokin's brilliance, determined the outcome.
