The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.63–2.43 and won anyway.
The Rangers stole this game. They won 6-3 despite surrendering 60% of expected goals (3.63 to 2.43)—the Predators were the better team and lost anyway. This is what happens when one goalie is hot and one is cold.
New York controlled little on the ice: 38% of shot attempts, 40% of xG. But they punished what they got. The Rangers scored on 5 of 17 rush attempts—clinical finishing that ends games. I. Shesterkin went 27-for-30 (0.900 SV%, +0.63 vs expected) to keep New York afloat.
Nashville was the better team. They generated 60% of xG, created 6 rebound opportunities, and got three goals from M. Wood in just over 17 minutes of ice time. But they ran into J. Saros's collapse: 7-for-12 (0.583 SV%, -3.38 vs expected). A historic underperformance in net swallowed the Predators' effort.
The Rangers overperformed their xG by 3.57 goals—an extreme variance swing that usually doesn't hold. This was a bouncy game where New York cashed in and Nashville didn't, made possible by goaltending and timing rather than dominance.
