Motion-blurred skater in a green sweater

Breakdown · DAL at OTT

Stars edge the Senators in overtime

Final / OTTue, Nov 11

The verdict · stolen

The Stars stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.90–3.26 and won anyway.

DAL 3 · OTT 2

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:30 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Ottawa dominated the underlying metrics—3.26 expected goals to Dallas's 2.90, plus a slight edge on shot attempts—yet lost 3–2 in overtime. Elite goaltending and opportunistic execution decided it.

J. Oettinger was the difference. His 0.931 save percentage against 27 shots means he stopped 1.26 goals above expected, turning a competitive xG battle into a Dallas victory. Ottawa's breakdown came where it mattered most: they scored zero goals on five high-danger chances, while Oettinger was 5-for-5 on HD attempts.

Both teams exploited the rush identically. Ottawa converted twice on 26 rush attempts; Dallas scored twice on 22. The rebound game told a similar story: the Senators crashed hard and generated three rebound chances without capitalizing, while Dallas created four opportunities and converted one. None of this separated the teams—it was Oettinger's elite positioning and Ottawa's finishing collapse that did.

Roope Hintz ended it at 03:04 of overtime with a wrist shot from the doorstep—an overtime winner that epitomized Dallas's efficiency in a game where underlying numbers suggested neither team should have pulled away.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · OT · Nov 11

DAL

OTT

Stars edge the Senators in overtime

Chances 2.9 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Senators deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

DAL

2.90

OTT

3.26

47% of the chances53%

The board read DAL 3, OTT 2. The chances read DAL 2.9, OTT 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

DAL

+0.1

goals above expected

DAL2.90 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

OTT3.26 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 00:49OTTD. Batherson0–1
P1 08:53OTTN. Jensen0–2
P2 16:22DALM. Rantanen1–2
P3 08:00DALJ. RobertsonPP2–2
OT 03:04DALR. Hintz3–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

DAL

42 shots

Final

82 shots

OTT

40 shots

DAL OTT GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

DALOTT

1 / 4

0.78 xG

High danger

0 / 5

1.01 xG

1 / 13

1.42 xG

Medium

1 / 14

1.74 xG

1 / 40

0.69 xG

Low

1 / 31

0.50 xG

The Senators went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

J. Oettinger

+1.3

DAL · 27/29

L. Ullmark

−0.1

OTT · 30/33

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Stars edge the Senators in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 6–12

00:49OTTD. Batherson(J. Sanderson)0–1
08:53OTTN. Jensen(M. Amadio, C. Giroux)0–2

2ndshots 7–9

16:22DALM. Rantanen(J. Robertson)1–2

3rdshots 16–6

08:00DALJ. Robertsonpower play(M. Rantanen, M. Heiskanen)2–2

OTshots 4–2

03:04DALR. Hintz(J. Robertson, M. Heiskanen)3–2

score reads DAL–OTT

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.90

DAL chances

Goals their shots were worth

+0.1

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.013

DAL puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

53.3%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.90Expected goals3.26

OTT 53% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal29

4High-danger chances5

57All attempts (Corsi)50

Adjusted for score: DAL 57% · OTT 43%

Faceoffs · OTT won41%off60%neu41%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

DAL1 / 4 · 0.78 xG

OTT0 / 5 · 1.01 xG

Medium dangermid-range

DAL1 / 13 · 1.42 xG

OTT1 / 14 · 1.74 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

DAL1 / 40 · 0.69 xG

OTT1 / 31 · 0.50 xG

OTT went 0-for-5 from high danger on 1.01 expected goals — 1.0 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

DAL

3 G · 2.90 xG · +0.1

OTT

2 G · 3.26 xG · -1.3

01234

DAL finished +0.1 against expected, OTT -1.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

DAL

WRIST2/32

BACKHAND0/2

TIP IN0/4

SNAP1/4

SLAP0/0

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/15

OTT

WRIST2/21

BACKHAND0/7

TIP IN0/4

SNAP0/3

SLAP0/4

DEFLECTED0/1

OTHER0/10

DAL

OTT

Off the rush

2 G on 22

1.82 xG

2 G on 26

2.55 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 4

0.62 xG

0 G on 3

0.49 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: DAL went 2-for-32, OTT 2-for-21. DAL scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Oettinger

DAL · 27/29 · .931

+1.3

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.0+1.0

Medium1/141.7+0.7

Low1/310.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Ullmark

OTT · 30/33 · .909

-0.1

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.8-0.2

Medium1/131.4+0.4

Low1/400.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

DAL

42 shots

Final

82 shots

OTT

40 shots

DAL OTT GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — DAL left, OTT right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Robertson

#21 · L · DAL

1 G · 2 A · 6 SOG · 20:11 on ice · +1

M. Heiskanen

#4 · D · DAL

0 G · 2 A · 4 SOG · 28:50 on ice · +2

M. Rantanen

#96 · R · DAL

1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:43 on ice · -1

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Nov 11

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:28 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects Ottawa at 56% win probability in a 2.2–2.6 loss for Dallas. The Senators hold the underlying play edge that makes the ask reasonable.

Ottawa owns 56.0% of expected goals at 5v5 to Dallas' 51.0%, with a territorial advantage reflected in 53.0% Corsi. The gap isn't massive, but it's consistent—the Senators dictate where play happens.

Dallas' PDO sits at 1.024, running well above the league mean. Regression is the predictable risk here; when luck normalizes, their goal totals tighten. Ottawa's 0.993 PDO suggests they haven't been rescued by random variance the same way.

Both starting goaltenders are on back-to-backs. L. Meriläinen and C. DeSmith may see reduced minutes or backup rotation, a minor edge to neither team but worth tracking given the competitive nature of the matchup.

On paper, Jason Robertson (25G, 0.96 xG/60, 12.4% shooting) remains Dallas' primary threat, with 2 high-danger goals anchoring his season. Michael Bunting (8G, 0.83 xG/60, 7.6% shooting) offers secondary scoring depth. For Ottawa, Brady Tkachuk (11G, 1.19 xG/60, 7.5% shooting) leads the xG generation with 2 high-danger goals, while Dylan Cozens (13G, 1.00 xG/60, 9.5% shooting, 1 high-danger goal) delivers consistent offensive pressure.

Dallas has struggled converting high-danger chances into both goals and rebounds—both metrics sitting at 0%, a real constraint on ceiling. Tyler Myers represents a defensive liability worth testing. Ottawa faces a similar conversion problem at 0% HD and rebound rates, with Nick Jensen as the defensive weak point. When both teams struggle to finish, the team generating more chances wins the attrition game. On 5v5 xG%, that's Ottawa.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

OTT 56%

56%

OTT

Model favorite

44%

56%

DAL50OTT

OTT by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DAL 2.2–2.6 OTT; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

DAL← edge

edge →OTT

51.0%56.0%

47.0%53.0%

2.362.66

2.292.12

2.072.18

1.681.99

1.0240.993

OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.024 vs 0.993) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

DAL

6-1-3

+1 GD · 1d rest

OTT

6-1-3

+9 GD · 1d rest

1.024

DAL PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.993

OTT PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Senators own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 51.0%.
The Senators drive Corsi at 53.0% — expect territorial tilt.
L. Meriläinen is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
C. DeSmith is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Stars' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

DAL

Expected in goal

C. DeSmith

back-to-back.968 last start

Backup Jake Oettinger · +5.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

OTT

Expected in goal

L. Meriläinen

back-to-back.935 last start

Backup Linus Ullmark · -12.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

DAL

Jason Robertson25G 21A

0.96 xG/60 · 2 HD · 12.4% sh

Michael Bunting8G 14A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 7.6% sh

OTT

Brady Tkachuk11G 20A

1.19 xG/60 · 2 HD · 7.5% sh

Dylan Cozens13G 15A

1.00 xG/60 · 1 HD · 9.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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