Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater
← Tue, Nov 11 · the slate
Breakdown · WSH at CAR

L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Hurricanes

FinalTue, Nov 11
WSHWashington Capitals4CARCarolina Hurricanes1
The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.78–4.67 and won anyway.

WSH 4 · CAR 1
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:33 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Capitals won 4-1 despite trailing in expected goals 3.78–4.67. Carolina controlled 55% of the xG at 5v5 and 52% of shot attempts (31–28). They had the chances; Washington converted.

L. Thompson's performance redefined the game. He made 30 of 31 saves (0.968 SV%) and posted +3.67 against expected, turning a dominant xG advantage for the Hurricanes into a lopsided defeat. The Capitals were clinical: 3 for 5 on high-danger chances (60%) and 2 goals on the rush.

The Hurricanes' wasted chances told the story. They underperformed their 4.67 xG by 3.67 goals. High-danger chances finished 8–5 in their favor. F. Andersen stopped 24 of 27 (0.889 SV%, +0.78 vs expected), but he inherited a losing situation that his save percentage couldn't overcome.

The turning point came early in the third period at 19:29, when Alex Ovechkin's wrist shot from the wing broke through and widened the gap. From there, the Capitals controlled the high-danger zone and the transition game simultaneously—a rare alignment that Carolina's defense couldn't manage.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 11
WSH
4
CAR
1

L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Hurricanes

Chances 3.8 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Hurricanes deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
WSH
3.78
CAR
4.67
45% of the chances55%

The board read WSH 4, CAR 1. The chances read WSH 3.8, CAR 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WSH
+0.2
goals above expected
WSH3.78 expected · 4 scored
Expected
Scored
CAR4.67 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Hurricanes left 3.7 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 05:42WSHB. Duhaime1–0
  2. P2 05:59WSHD. Strome2–0
  3. P2 13:56CARN. Ehlers2–1
  4. P3 05:46WSHJ. ChychrunPP3–1
  5. P3 19:29WSHA. OvechkinEN4–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
WSH
39 shots
4
Final
87 shots
CAR
48 shots
1
WSH attackCAR attack
WSH CAR Goal
39
shots · 4 in
48
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
WSHCAR
3 / 5
1.65 xG
High danger
1 / 8
2.04 xG
1 / 14
1.54 xG
Medium
0 / 20
2.19 xG
0 / 30
0.59 xG
Low
0 / 42
0.44 xG

The Capitals buried 3 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
L. Thompson
+3.7
WSH · 30/31
B+
F. Andersen
+0.8
CAR · 24/27
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

L. Thompson stands tall as the Capitals edge the Hurricanes

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–7
  1. 05:42WSHB. Duhaime(E. Frank, N. Dowd)1–0
2ndshots 8–14
  1. 05:59WSHD. Strome(A. Ovechkin, J. Carlson)2–0
  2. 13:56CARN. Ehlers(J. Blake, S. Gostisbehere)2–1
3rdshots 10–10
  1. 05:46WSHJ. Chychrunpower play(R. Leonard, J. Carlson)3–1
  2. 19:29WSHA. Ovechkinempty net(A. Beauvillier)4–1

score reads WSH–CAR

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.78
WSH chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.2
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.067
WSH puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
41.2%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.78Expected goals4.67
CAR 55% of the chance quality
28Shots on goal31
5High-danger chances8
49All attempts (Corsi)70
Adjusted for score: WSH 36% · CAR 64%
Faceoffs · CAR won71%off39%neu46%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
WSH3 / 5 · 1.65 xG
CAR1 / 8 · 2.04 xG
Medium dangermid-range
WSH1 / 14 · 1.54 xG
CAR0 / 20 · 2.19 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
WSH0 / 30 · 0.59 xG
CAR0 / 42 · 0.44 xG

CAR went 0-for-20 from medium danger on 2.19 expected goals — 2.2 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
WSH
4 G · 3.78 xG · +0.2
CAR
1 G · 4.67 xG · -3.7
012345

WSH finished +0.2 against expected, CAR -3.7.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
WSH
SNAP2/9
WRIST2/20
TIP IN0/3
SLAP0/4
BACKHAND0/3
OTHER0/10
CAR
SNAP1/30
WRIST0/9
TIP IN0/6
SLAP0/2
BACKHAND0/1
OTHER0/22
WSH
CAR
Off the rush
2 G on 23
2.42 xG
0 G on 27
3.02 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 2
0.40 xG
0 G on 1
0.19 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: WSH went 2-for-9, CAR 1-for-30. WSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
L. Thompson
WSH · 30/31 · .968
+3.7
saved above expected
A+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/82.0+1.0
Medium0/202.2+2.2
Low0/420.4+0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

F. Andersen
CAR · 24/27 · .889
+0.8
saved above expected
B+
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger3/51.6-1.4
Medium1/141.5+0.5
Low0/300.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

87 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
WSH
39 shots
4
Final
87 shots
CAR
48 shots
1
WSH attackCAR attack
WSH CAR Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, CAR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
J. Carlson
#74 · D · WSH
0 G · 2 A · 1 SOG · 22:51 on ice · +2
A. Ovechkin
#8 · L · WSH
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 14:48 on ice · +2
S. Gostisbehere
#4 · D · CAR
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 20:00 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Nov 11
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:31 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a WSH 2.5–2.9 CAR game with the Hurricanes at 58% win probability.

Carolina arrives as the hotter team by points pace, posting a 6–4–0 record over their last 10. But the predictive edge runs deeper. The Hurricanes own the underlying play: 56.0% 5v5 expected goals to Washington's 50.0%, and they drive possession at 60.0% Corsi to the Capitals' 49.0%. Territorial dominance translates.

The PDO story is where regression risk emerges. Carolina's PDO sits at 0.984—running cold, due for positive reversion. Washington's PDO is 1.018—running hot, expect some regression. This divergence captures a simple mechanic: lucky finishes regress, and the Capitals' shooting touch is borrowed time.

B. Bussi is on a back-to-back for Washington. Monitor for either a backup start or fatigue in the starter.

Players to Watch

Washington

  • Alex Ovechkin — 0.97 xG/60, 19G 17A, 2 HD goals, 13.8% shooting
  • Anthony Beauvillier — 0.89 xG/60, 14G 9A, 2 HD goals, 10.4% shooting

Carolina

  • Jackson Blake — 1.06 xG/60, 14G 19A, 2 HD goals, 10.9% shooting
  • Seth Jarvis — 0.98 xG/60, 17G 12A, 1 HD goals, 11.9% shooting
What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CAR 58%
58%
CAR
Model favorite
42%
58%
WSH50CAR

CAR by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score WSH 2.5–2.9 CAR; 17% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
WSH← edge
edge →CAR
50.0%56.0%
49.0%60.0%
2.622.98
2.622.31
2.182.26
1.791.95
1.0180.984

CAR holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.984) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
WSH
3-6-1
-2 GD · 2d rest
CAR
6-4-0
+5 GD · 1d rest
1.018
WSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.984
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
  • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
  • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
  • The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 56.0% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
  • The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 60.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • B. Bussi is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 in their last 10).
  • The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
WSH
Expected in goal
L. Thompson
2 days rest.850 last start
Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CAR
Expected in goal
B. Bussi
back-to-back.800 last start
Backup Brandon Bussi · +2.8 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
WSH
Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
CAR
Jackson Blake14G 19A
1.06 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.9% sh
Seth Jarvis17G 12A
0.98 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.9% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page