The Blues won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.
St. Louis' 3–2 win was no coup—the expected goals split of 3.50–3.42 suggests a close game played roughly to form. But look closer and the Blues' superiority emerges in the details.
The Blues held 44% of shot attempts (31–40 on goal), generating 0.073 expected goals per shot attempt to Calgary's 0.048. That gap in shot quality haunted the Flames all night. St. Louis converted twice from 28 rush attempts, turning efficiency into victory.
Calgary's underlying metrics told a grimmer story: the Flames scored twice from low-danger areas—the sort of goals a good goalie stops—while underperforming their expected total by 1.42 goals. J. Binnington, St. Louis' goaltender, stopped 1.4 goals above expected. That dominant performance erased Calgary's margin for error.
The Flames created four rebound opportunities but converted none. Rasmus Andersson's wrist shot from the point (14:29, P2) was the game's turning point, but even an industrious Andersson (25:12 on ice, one goal) could not drag his team back.