Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater

Breakdown · WSH at FLA

Panthers pull away from the Capitals

FinalThu, Nov 13

WSHWashington Capitals3 FLAFlorida Panthers6

The verdict · earned

The Panthers earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

WSH 3 · FLA 6

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:52 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

D. Tarasov and the Panthers' finishing prowess created a 6-3 victory that the underlying shot quality refused to endorse. Expected goals split 4.65–4.06, a near-even contest that rewarded execution and goaltending over dominance.

Florida won the quality battle decisively. They generated 0.080 expected goals per shot to Washington's 0.048—dangerous chances over volume. High-danger accounting confirmed the edge: Panthers 9, Capitals 7. Yet Florida held just 41% of shot attempts (28–40), ceding territorial play while winning the efficiency war.

D. Tarasov made the difference. He posted a 0.925 save percentage (37 saves on 40 shots), exceeding expected performance by 1.06 goals. L. Thompson struggled for Washington: 22 saves on 27 attempts (0.815 SV%), underperforming expected by 1.06.

Florida's finishing proved clinical. They tallied 2 rushing goals from 28 rush attempts. Rebound dominance proved equally decisive: they generated 5 rebound chances and converted 3. Washington created 3 but capitalized on none.

The power play delivered the mercy blow. Florida scored 2 on 16 power-play shots, an expected-goals value of 0.90—the kind of special-teams discipline that separates a one-goal game from a convincing win.

The breakdown in twelve frames

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Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 13

WSH

FLA

Panthers pull away from the Capitals

Chances 4.1 – 4.7Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Panthers earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value

WSH

4.06

FLA

4.65

47% of the chances53%

The board read WSH 3, FLA 6. The chances read WSH 4.1, FLA 4.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

FLA

+1.4

goals above expected

FLA4.65 expected · 6 scored

Expected

Scored

WSH4.06 expected · 3 scored

Expected

Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 08:25WSHB. Duhaime1–0
P1 08:53FLAE. Rodrigues1–1
P2 03:05FLAC. Schwindt1–2
P2 14:41FLAS. ReinhartPP1–3
P3 00:52WSHJ. Sourdif2–3
P3 04:54FLAS. Reinhart2–4
P3 09:47FLAS. JonesPP2–5

+2 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

WSH

62 shots

Final

106 shots

FLA

44 shots

WSH FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 3 in

shots · 6 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

WSHFLA

1 / 7

1.60 xG

High danger

3 / 9

2.48 xG

1 / 16

1.66 xG

Medium

2 / 13

1.45 xG

1 / 61

0.81 xG

Low

1 / 36

0.72 xG

The Panthers buried 3 of 9 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

D. Tarasov

+1.1

FLA · 37/40

L. Thompson

−0.3

WSH · 22/27

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Panthers pull away from the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 17–7

08:25WSHB. Duhaime(R. Sandin)1–0
08:53FLAE. Rodrigues(N. Mikkola, S. Reinhart)1–1

2ndshots 10–12

03:05FLAC. Schwindt(G. Forsling, E. Luostarinen)1–2
14:41FLAS. Reinhartpower play(C. Verhaeghe, S. Jones)1–3

3rdshots 13–9

00:52WSHJ. Sourdif(J. Chychrun, T. Wilson)2–3
04:54FLAS. Reinhart(A. Lundell, E. Luostarinen)2–4
09:47FLAS. Jonespower play(B. Marchand, A. Lundell)2–5
12:40WSHR. Sandin(J. Carlson)3–5
18:30FLAE. Luostarinenempty net(B. Marchand, A. Lundell)3–6

score reads WSH–FLA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

4.65

FLA chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.4

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.068

FLA puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

40.8%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.06Expected goals4.65

FLA 53% of the chance quality

40Shots on goal28

7High-danger chances9

84All attempts (Corsi)58

Adjusted for score: WSH 63% · FLA 37%

Faceoffs · FLA won35%off38%neu62%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

WSH1 / 7 · 1.60 xG

FLA3 / 9 · 2.48 xG

Medium dangermid-range

WSH1 / 16 · 1.66 xG

FLA2 / 13 · 1.45 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

WSH1 / 61 · 0.81 xG

FLA1 / 36 · 0.72 xG

WSH went 1-for-16 from medium danger on 1.66 expected goals — 0.7 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

WSH

3 G · 4.06 xG · -1.1

FLA

6 G · 4.65 xG · +1.4

01234567

WSH finished -1.1 against expected, FLA +1.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

WSH

WRIST0/34

SLAP0/7

SNAP1/7

TIP IN2/8

BACKHAND0/4

WRAP AROUND0/1

BAT0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/22

FLA

WRIST2/25

SLAP0/6

SNAP2/5

TIP IN0/4

BACKHAND1/3

WRAP AROUND0/0

BAT0/0

DEFLECTED1/1

OTHER0/14

WSH

FLA

Off the rush

1 G on 32

2.72 xG

2 G on 28

2.65 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.42 xG

3 G on 5

0.67 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: WSH went 0-for-34, FLA 2-for-25. FLA scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

L. Thompson

WSH · 22/27 · .815

-0.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/92.5-0.5

Medium2/131.4-0.6

Low1/360.7-0.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

D. Tarasov

FLA · 37/40 · .925

+1.1

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/71.6+0.6

Medium1/161.7+0.7

Low1/610.8-0.2

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

106 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

WSH

62 shots

Final

106 shots

FLA

44 shots

WSH FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — WSH left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Lundell

#15 · C · FLA

0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 21:21 on ice

E. Luostarinen

#27 · C · FLA

1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 19:23 on ice · +1

S. Reinhart

#13 · C · FLA

2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 18:15 on ice · +2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Nov 13

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 3:51 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model calls this a pick'em: 2.6-to-2.7 FLA, with Florida at 52% win probability. In a matchup this balanced, underlying possession tells the real story.

The Capitals' expected-goal numbers (50.0% xG%) mask a territorial disadvantage. Florida drives at 52.0% Corsi, controlling play for stretches. Washington compensates with ruthless finishing—a 1.018 PDO suggests they're running unsustainably hot and due for regression.

Both offenses field elite snipers operating at the same productivity level. Alex Ovechkin (0.97 xG/60, 19 goals, 13.8% shooting) and Sam Bennett (0.97 xG/60, 18 goals, 13.1% shooting) carry their respective teams' offensive load with identical shot-creation metrics. The supporting cast diverges: Anthony Beauvillier (0.89 xG/60, 14 goals, 10.4% shooting) works in lower volume, while Brad Marchand (0.93 xG/60, 17 goals, 19.5% shooting) has unsustainably high finishing. Marchand's 19.5% rate will normalize downward, a timing risk for Florida bettors banking on his continued output.

Defensively, both teams show 0% hard-goal rates and 0% rebound rates—a rarity that either reflects elite goaltending or statistical noise. Washington's weak link is Declan Chisholm; Florida's is Brad Marchand.

The goaltending situation adds variance. L. Thompson plays on consecutive nights, opening the door to a backup appearance or a tired starter's performance dip.

The verdict: Florida controls possession, but Washington's PDO floor exceeds Florida's. If the Capitals' finishing normalizes, they likely lose this one. Take the Panthers at 52%.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

FLA 52%

51%

FLA

Model favorite

49%

51%

WSH50FLA

FLA by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score WSH 2.6–2.7 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH← edge

edge →FLA

50.0%49.0%

49.0%52.0%

2.622.48

2.622.56

2.181.98

1.792.21

1.0180.989

WSH holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.018 vs 0.989) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

WSH

4-5-1

+2 GD · 1d rest

FLA

5-4-1

-3 GD · 2d rest

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Panthers drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

back-to-back.968 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

FLA

Expected in goal

S. Bobrovsky

2 days rest.938 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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