Breakdown · NYR at CBJ

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Blue Jackets

Final / OTSat, Nov 15

NYRNew York Rangers2 CBJColumbus Blue Jackets1

The verdict · stolen

The Rangers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.31–3.63 and won anyway.

NYR 2 · CBJ 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:42 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus built a stronger offense on paper—3.63 expected goals versus New York's 3.31—yet lost 2-1 in a shootout. The underlying game was close; high-danger chances split 4-4, but the Jackets' shot quality was sharper: 0.065 expected goals per shot versus 0.043 for the Rangers.

New York won the shot-attempt count, 33-27, but that margin masks what Columbus did better—generating fewer, deadlier chances. The Jackets crashed the net hard, creating four rebound opportunities and converting one. They wasted it anyway, underperforming their xG by 2.63 goals. The Rangers underperformed theirs by 1.31.

I. Shesterkin was the difference. The Rangers goalie posted a 0.963 save percentage on 27 shots and outperformed his expected output by 2.63 goals—stealing this game when his team's offense couldn't. J. Greaves kept Columbus in it with a 0.970 save percentage, besting his expected mark by 2.31 goals, but it wasn't enough.

J.T. Miller ended it. His shootout snap shot from a sharp angle gave New York the margin the underlying play didn't.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · SO · Nov 15

NYR

CBJ

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Blue Jackets

Chances 3.3 – 3.6Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Rangers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NYR

3.31

CBJ

3.63

48% of the chances52%

The board read NYR 2, CBJ 1. The chances read NYR 3.3, CBJ 3.6.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYR

−1.3

goals above expected

NYR3.31 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

CBJ3.63 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Blue Jackets left 2.6 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P2 05:42NYRM. ZibanejadPP1–0
P2 15:20CBJD. VoronkovPP1–1
SO 00:00NYRV. TrocheckPP1–1
SO 00:00CBJK. MarchenkoPP1–1
SO 00:00NYRJ. MillerPP1–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYR

59 shots

Final

105 shots

CBJ

46 shots

NYR CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

shots · 3 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYRCBJ

1 / 4

0.84 xG

High danger

1 / 4

0.88 xG

0 / 14

1.54 xG

Medium

0 / 19

2.14 xG

0 / 59

0.93 xG

Low

0 / 33

0.62 xG

High-danger looks: NYR 1 of 4, CBJ 1 of 4.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Shesterkin

+2.6

NYR · 26/27

J. Greaves

+2.3

CBJ · 32/33

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

I. Shesterkin stands tall as the Rangers edge the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 10–5no goals

2ndshots 16–13

05:42NYRM. Zibanejadpower play(A. Panarin, A. Fox)1–0
15:20CBJD. Voronkovpower play(Z. Werenski, K. Marchenko)1–1

3rdshots 6–8no goals

OTshots 1–1no goals

00:00NYRV. Trocheckpower play1–1
00:00CBJK. Marchenkopower play1–1
00:00NYRJ. Millerpower play1–1

score reads NYR–CBJ

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.31

NYR chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.3

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

0.995

NYR puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

57.9%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.31Expected goals3.63

CBJ 52% of the chance quality

33Shots on goal27

4High-danger chances4

77All attempts (Corsi)56

Adjusted for score: NYR 57% · CBJ 43%

Faceoffs · CBJ won30%off88%neu50%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYR1 / 4 · 0.84 xG

CBJ1 / 4 · 0.88 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYR0 / 14 · 1.54 xG

CBJ0 / 19 · 2.14 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYR0 / 59 · 0.93 xG

CBJ0 / 33 · 0.62 xG

CBJ went 0-for-19 from medium danger on 2.14 expected goals — 2.1 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYR

2 G · 3.31 xG · -1.3

CBJ

1 G · 3.63 xG · -2.6

01234

NYR finished -1.3 against expected, CBJ -2.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYR

WRIST1/32

SNAP0/9

TIP IN0/4

SLAP0/7

BACKHAND0/4

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/21

CBJ

WRIST0/22

SNAP0/5

TIP IN1/8

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/2

DEFLECTED0/2

OTHER0/13

NYR

CBJ

Off the rush

0 G on 31

2.13 xG

0 G on 28

2.26 xG

Off rebounds

1 G on 2

0.43 xG

1 G on 4

0.49 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: NYR went 1-for-32, CBJ 0-for-22.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Shesterkin

NYR · 26/27 · .963

+2.6

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.9-0.1

Medium0/192.1+2.1

Low0/330.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Greaves

CBJ · 32/33 · .970

+2.3

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/40.8-0.2

Medium0/141.5+1.5

Low0/590.9+0.9

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

105 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYR

59 shots

Final

105 shots

CBJ

46 shots

NYR CBJ GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYR left, CBJ right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

A. Fox

#23 · D · NYR

0 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 28:38 on ice

Z. Werenski

#8 · D · CBJ

0 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 27:18 on ice

K. Marchenko

#86 · R · CBJ

0 G · 1 A · 4 SOG · 22:41 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sat, Nov 15

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:14 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects this matchup at 2.3–2.6 goals, with the Blue Jackets favored at 55% win probability. The underlying numbers explain why. Columbus controls the 5v5 play decisively: 52.0% expected goals versus 48.0% for New York, a gap that also shows up in possession (51.0% Corsi% to 49.0%). The Rangers' slight PDO edge (1.009 to 1.003) isn't enough to offset the underlying deficit.

The goaltending situation deserves scrutiny. J. Greaves enters on a back-to-back, which could mean either a backup start or a fatigued starter.

Columbus's group is dangerous in the right ways. Boone Jenner leads with 11 goals and 0.98 expected goals per 60 minutes, including two high-danger goals at a 9.6% shooting rate. Mathieu Olivier adds 12 goals and 0.89 xG/60, with one high-danger goal at 13.3% shooting. New York's Adam Sykora has 3 goals and 0.91 xG/60 despite zero high-danger goals, at 20.0% shooting; Gabe Perreault (8 goals, 0.79 xG/60, two high-danger goals, 13.1% shooting) offers secondary depth.

Both teams lack a high-danger goal rate or rebound goal rate (0% each), but Columbus's underlying edge in shot volume and quality should prove decisive. New York's defensive weak link is Vincent Iorio; Columbus's is Conor Garland. The model's lean reflects a fundamental advantage in the play itself.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 55%

55%

CBJ

Model favorite

45%

55%

NYR50CBJ

CBJ by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYR 2.3–2.6 CBJ; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR← edge

edge →CBJ

48.0%52.0%

49.0%51.0%

2.262.63

2.402.43

1.882.12

1.901.98

1.0091.003

CBJ holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.003) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYR

6-3-1

+1 GD · 2d rest

CBJ

6-3-1

+1 GD · 1d rest

1.009

NYR PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.003

CBJ PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.

Things to watch

The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
J. Greaves is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYR

Expected in goal

I. Shesterkin

2 days rest.917 last start

Backup Igor Shesterkin · +21.3 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

CBJ

Expected in goal

J. Greaves

back-to-back.862 last start

Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYR

Adam Sykora3G 1A

0.91 xG/60 · 0 HD · 20.0% sh

Gabe Perreault8G 11A

0.79 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.1% sh

CBJ

Boone Jenner11G 21A

0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh

Mathieu Olivier12G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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