Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Minnesota Wild sweater
← Sun, Nov 16 · the slate
Breakdown · VGK at MIN

Wild edge the Golden Knights in overtime

Final / OTSun, Nov 16
VGKVegas Golden Knights2MINMinnesota Wild3
The verdict · earned

The Wild earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

VGK 2 · MIN 3
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:10 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Minnesota's 3-2 overtime victory masked a tight underlying score: the Wild led expected goals 2.38–2.12, a slim 53–47 split that called the game nearly even. The margin between the scoreboard and the analytics pointed to goaltending. C. Lindbom (25/28 saves, 0.893 SV%) surrendered 0.62 more goals than expectation. F. Gustavsson (23/25 saves, 0.920 SV%) delivered an elite performance. The gap between the pipes was the difference in a game the underlying numbers called close.

Minnesota's offense operated at a higher quality—0.051 expected goals per shot versus Vegas's 0.039, a striking efficiency gap. The Wild proved surgical in the danger zone, converting half their high-danger chances (2 on 4), while generating three goals on twenty rush attempts. Vegas's power play was dominant—0.46 expected goals per shot, 2 goals on 10 attempts—but couldn't overcome the Wild's clinical execution at even strength.

The OT winner: Kirill Kaprizov's snap shot from a sharp angle at 04:50.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Nov 16
VGK
2
MIN
3

Wild edge the Golden Knights in overtime

Chances 2.1 – 2.4Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Wild took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value
VGK
2.12
MIN
2.38
47% of the chances53%

The board read VGK 2, MIN 3. The chances read VGK 2.1, MIN 2.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
MIN
+0.6
goals above expected
MIN2.38 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK2.12 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 04:49MINJ. Eriksson Ek0–1
  2. P1 15:14VGKP. DorofeyevPP1–1
  3. P2 09:05MINY. Trenin1–2
  4. P3 06:35VGKR. SmithPP2–2
  5. OT 04:50MINK. KaprizovPP2–3
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
VGK
38 shots
2
Final
72 shots
MIN
34 shots
3
VGK attackMIN attack
VGK MIN Goal
38
shots · 2 in
34
shots · 3 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
VGKMIN
0 / 3
0.63 xG
High danger
2 / 4
0.95 xG
1 / 9
0.88 xG
Medium
1 / 8
0.81 xG
1 / 42
0.60 xG
Low
0 / 35
0.62 xG

The Golden Knights went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
C
F. Gustavsson
+0.1
MIN · 23/25
D
C. Lindbom
−0.6
VGK · 25/28
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Wild edge the Golden Knights in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 8–12
  1. 04:49MINJ. Eriksson Ek(M. Zuccarello, M. Johansson)0–1
  2. 15:14VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Marner, T. Hertl)1–1
2ndshots 8–6
  1. 09:05MINY. Trenin(D. Yurov, M. Foligno)1–2
3rdshots 9–7
  1. 06:35VGKR. Smithpower play(S. Theodore, I. Barbashev)2–2
OTshots 0–3
  1. 04:50MINK. Kaprizovpower play(M. Zuccarello, M. Boldy)2–3

score reads VGK–MIN

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
2.38
MIN chances
Goals their shots were worth
+0.6
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.027
MIN puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
46.5%
Shot attempts
Under half — they were outshot
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.12Expected goals2.38
MIN 53% of the chance quality
25Shots on goal28
3High-danger chances4
54All attempts (Corsi)47
Adjusted for score: VGK 55% · MIN 45%
Faceoffs · MIN won50%off47%neu56%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
VGK0 / 3 · 0.63 xG
MIN2 / 4 · 0.95 xG
Medium dangermid-range
VGK1 / 9 · 0.88 xG
MIN1 / 8 · 0.81 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
VGK1 / 42 · 0.60 xG
MIN0 / 35 · 0.62 xG

MIN went 2-for-4 from high danger on 0.95 expected goals — 1.1 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
VGK
2 G · 2.12 xG · -0.1
MIN
3 G · 2.38 xG · +0.6
01234

VGK finished -0.1 against expected, MIN +0.6.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
VGK
WRIST2/17
SNAP0/11
BACKHAND0/4
TIP IN0/3
SLAP0/3
BAT0/0
OTHER0/16
MIN
WRIST2/24
SNAP1/3
BACKHAND0/3
TIP IN0/2
SLAP0/1
BAT0/1
OTHER0/13
VGK
MIN
Off the rush
1 G on 19
1.33 xG
3 G on 20
1.80 xG
Off rebounds
1 G on 2
0.38 xG
0 G on 1
0.11 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: VGK went 2-for-17, MIN 2-for-24. MIN scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
C. Lindbom
VGK · 25/28 · .893
-0.6
saved above expected
D
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger2/40.9-1.1
Medium1/80.8-0.2
Low0/350.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

F. Gustavsson
MIN · 23/25 · .920
+0.1
saved above expected
C
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.6+0.6
Medium1/90.9-0.1
Low1/420.6-0.4

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

72 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
VGK
38 shots
2
Final
72 shots
MIN
34 shots
3
VGK attackMIN attack
VGK MIN Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — VGK left, MIN right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Zuccarello
#36 · R · MIN
0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 21:13 on ice · +1
S. Theodore
#27 · D · VGK
0 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 27:14 on ice
J. Eriksson Ek
#14 · C · MIN
1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 24:32 on ice · +1
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Sun, Nov 16
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:21 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model sees this even: Golden Knights at 50% win probability against a 2.5–2.5 goal projection is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Minnesota has momentum. They've gone 5-2-3 over their last 10, outpacing Vegas's sluggish stretch—the Knights are underwater at minus-5 goal differential in that same span.

Yet Vegas owns the territorial advantage in underlying play. At 5-on-5, the Knights post a 54.0% expected goals share against Minnesota's 52.0%. In Corsi (shots and shot attempts), Vegas leads 52.0% to 48.0%. Minnesota is getting out-chanced, which is precisely what makes this a coin flip: both teams' actual results are outrunning what the ice suggests they should earn.

The Knights are running cold. Their PDO sits at 0.983—a measure of puck luck—suggesting positive regression is due. Minnesota sits at 1.007, riding normal luck in the other direction. One team is about to look better; one will regress toward reality.

Goaltending opacity clouds Vegas's advantage. J. Wallstedt faces a back-to-back for Minnesota; watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

The player losses bite both ways. Brandon Saad, Vegas's 0.91 xG/60 driver with three goals and six assists, is likely out. Robby Fabbri, Minnesota's secondary source at 0.88 xG/60 with two goals and three assists, is also likely out. That erases edge plays on both sides.

Tomas Hertl (five goals, 4.3% shooting, 0.88 xG/60) becomes Vegas's center of gravity. Matt Boldy carries the weight for Minnesota: 22 goals, 18 assists, five hard-chance goals, and a scalding 13.7% shooting rate at 0.89 xG/60. He's outpacing expected output by design, not chance.

Defensively, Rasmus Andersson is Vegas's leak. Matt Kiersted plays the same role for Minnesota. Both are vulnerable to tempo changes and cycled pucks.

The territorial edge favors Vegas. The momentum edge favors Minnesota. The luck edge favors Vegas in the short term. That's the coin: neither side dominates the story. This is a genuine toss, decided more by goaltending steadiness and which team's regression clock ticks first.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

VGK 50%
50%
VGK
Model favorite
50%
50%
VGK50MIN

VGK by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score VGK 2.5–2.5 MIN; 19% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →MIN
54.0%52.0%
52.0%48.0%
2.522.55
2.112.40
2.122.04
2.101.93
0.9831.007

VGK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.007) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
VGK
3-4-3
-5 GD · 2d rest
MIN
5-2-3
+4 GD · 1d rest
0.983
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.007
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
  • The Golden Knights drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
  • J. Wallstedt is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
  • The Wild are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-3 in their last 10).
  • The Golden Knights are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
  • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
VGK
Expected in goal
A. Schmid
2 days rest.833 last start
Backup Akira Schmid · -1.0 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

MIN
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
back-to-back1.000 last start
Backup Filip Gustavsson · +1.4 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
VGK
Brandon Saad3G 6A
0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
Tomas Hertl5G 17A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
MIN
Matt Boldy22G 18A
0.89 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh
Robby Fabbri2G 3A
0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.9% sh
Keep going

Where to next

Back to the front page