Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater

Breakdown · LAK at WSH

Capitals hold off the Kings

FinalMon, Nov 17

LAKLos Angeles Kings1 WSHWashington Capitals2

The verdict · coin flip

The Capitals won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

LAK 1 · WSH 2

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:44 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kings were the better team on paper—expected goals favored Los Angeles 3.45 to 3.37—yet the Capitals won 2–1. C. Lindgren stole this one. The Capitals' goaltender posted a 0.968 save percentage and +2.45 performance versus expected. D. Kuemper was also strong (+1.37 vs expected), but in a game that easily could have gone the other way, superior goaltending was the difference.

Los Angeles' underperformance tells the real story: 3.45 xG, 1 goal, a 2.45-goal miss. Washington squandered its own chances—0-for-6 on high-danger opportunities—yet prevailed anyway. The Capitals' efficiency on the rush (2 goals on 25 attempts) and net-front collisions papered over poor finishing in prime scoring areas. High-danger chances favored Washington 6–4, and Kuemper's perfect record on those attempts kept Los Angeles within reach until the end.

The turning point arrived early in the second: Anze Kopitar's tip-in from the doorstep at 13:27. After that, Lindgren took over.

Washington held 45% of shot attempts (25–31 on goal), losing the volume battle decisively but winning the precision war. The Capitals created 4 rebound opportunities and converted 0; the Kings created 3 and also converted 0. One team finished a high-danger chance, its goalie shut the door, and the game was decided.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 17

LAK

WSH

Capitals hold off the Kings

Chances 3.5 – 3.4Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Capitals took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

LAK

3.45

WSH

3.37

51% of the chances49%

The board read LAK 1, WSH 2. The chances read LAK 3.5, WSH 3.4.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

WSH

−1.4

goals above expected

WSH3.37 expected · 2 scored

Expected

Scored

LAK3.45 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

The Kings left 2.5 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 03:41WSHM. Roy0–1
P2 01:51WSHA. Ovechkin0–2
P2 13:27LAKA. KopitarPP1–2

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

LAK

44 shots

Final

81 shots

WSH

37 shots

LAK WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 1 in

shots · 2 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

LAKWSH

0 / 4

0.93 xG

High danger

0 / 6

1.51 xG

1 / 16

1.82 xG

Medium

2 / 11

1.30 xG

0 / 46

0.71 xG

Low

0 / 36

0.56 xG

The Kings went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

C. Lindgren

+2.5

WSH · 30/31

B+

D. Kuemper

+1.4

LAK · 23/25

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Capitals hold off the Kings

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–14

03:41WSHM. Roy(A. Protas, T. Wilson)0–1

2ndshots 12–4

01:51WSHA. Ovechkin(C. McMichael, J. Chychrun)0–2
13:27LAKA. Kopitarpower play(C. Perry, K. Fiala)1–2

3rdshots 11–7no goals

score reads LAK–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.37

WSH chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.4

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.023

WSH puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

44.5%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.45Expected goals3.37

LAK 51% of the chance quality

31Shots on goal25

4High-danger chances6

66All attempts (Corsi)53

Adjusted for score: LAK 60% · WSH 40%

Faceoffs · WSH won39%off60%neu56%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

LAK0 / 4 · 0.93 xG

WSH0 / 6 · 1.51 xG

Medium dangermid-range

LAK1 / 16 · 1.82 xG

WSH2 / 11 · 1.30 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

LAK0 / 46 · 0.71 xG

WSH0 / 36 · 0.56 xG

WSH went 0-for-6 from high danger on 1.51 expected goals — 1.5 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

LAK

1 G · 3.45 xG · -2.5

WSH

2 G · 3.37 xG · -1.4

01234

LAK finished -2.5 against expected, WSH -1.4.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

LAK

SNAP0/19

WRIST0/6

TIP IN1/6

BACKHAND0/5

SLAP0/5

DEFLECTED0/3

OTHER0/22

WSH

SNAP1/18

WRIST0/6

TIP IN1/5

BACKHAND0/4

SLAP0/4

DEFLECTED0/0

OTHER0/16

LAK

WSH

Off the rush

1 G on 32

2.92 xG

2 G on 25

2.36 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 3

0.35 xG

0 G on 4

0.87 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: LAK went 0-for-19, WSH 1-for-18. WSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

D. Kuemper

LAK · 23/25 · .920

+1.4

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/61.5+1.5

Medium2/111.3-0.7

Low0/360.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

C. Lindgren

WSH · 30/31 · .968

+2.5

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/40.9+0.9

Medium1/161.8+0.8

Low0/460.7+0.7

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

81 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

LAK

44 shots

Final

81 shots

WSH

37 shots

LAK WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Roy

#3 · D · WSH

1 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 22:46 on ice · +2

J. Chychrun

#6 · D · WSH

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 21:30 on ice · +2

K. Fiala

#22 · L · LAK

0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 20:48 on ice · -2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Mon, Nov 17

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:25 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.5 game with the Capitals at 50% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Los Angeles is the hotter team: 7-2-1 over the last 10 games versus Washington's -9 goal differential. Yet underlying metrics paint a tighter picture.

At 5v5, the Kings own 52.0% expected goals share to the Capitals' 50.0%, and a 52.0% Corsi edge over Washington's 49.0%. Territorial advantage tilts clearly to Los Angeles. But Washington is running unsustainably hot. Its PDO of 1.018 signals variance; the Kings' 1.002 sits closer to baseline.

Both L. Thompson and A. Forsberg are on back-to-backs. Watch for a backup start or tired starter from either crease.

Alex Laferriere operates at 0.87 expected goals per 60 minutes for the Kings, with 16 goals and 18 assists. His 9.9% shooting rate leaves conversion upside. Jared Wright generates 0.83 xG/60 and has 4 assists, but the supporting cast needs to produce.

Washington leans on Alex Ovechkin. At 0.97 xG/60 with 19 goals and 17 assists, his 13.8% shooting rate signals elite precision. Anthony Beauvillier adds secondary threat at 0.89 xG/60 with 14 goals and 9 assists, maintaining a 10.4% shooting rate aligned with his creation.

The Kings hold structural advantage—possession edge and fresher form. Washington has the star power to punish mistakes. The model sees them as equals.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 50%

50%

WSH

Model favorite

50%

LAK50WSH

WSH by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score LAK 2.5–2.5 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

LAK← edge

edge →WSH

52.0%50.0%

52.0%49.0%

2.422.62

2.202.62

1.852.18

1.711.79

1.0021.018

LAK holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.002 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

LAK

7-2-1

+6 GD · 1d rest

WSH

2-6-2

-9 GD · 1d rest

1.002

LAK PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live

The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Things to watch

The Kings drive Corsi at 52.0% — expect territorial tilt.
L. Thompson is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
A. Forsberg is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Kings are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-1 in their last 10).
The Capitals are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

LAK

Expected in goal

A. Forsberg

back-to-back1.000 last start

Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.8 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH

Expected in goal

L. Thompson

back-to-back.935 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

LAK

Alex Laferriere16G 18A

0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh

Jared Wright0G 4A

0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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