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Motion-blurred skater in a Winnipeg Jets sweater
← Tue, Nov 18 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at WPG

Jets pull away from the Blue Jackets

FinalTue, Nov 18
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets2WPGWinnipeg Jets5
The verdict · earned

The Jets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 2 · WPG 5
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 5:09 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Winnipeg's 5-2 scoreline misleads. The Jets held 55% of 5-on-5 expected goals (3.17-2.59), insufficient to justify a three-goal margin without scoring luck. E. Merzlikins explained the gap: a 0.833 save percentage on 30 shots, 1.83 goals below expectation.

Winnipeg was clinical off the rush, converting 5 times on 29 chances. Columbus managed 2 goals on 22 rush attempts, an efficient rate that might have tightened the game if Merzlikins had held standard.

Logan Stanley's slap shot from the top of the circles (06:23, P3) provided the turning point in the third period, cementing a lead Winnipeg controlled to the end.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Nov 18
CBJ
2
WPG
5

Jets pull away from the Blue Jackets

Chances 2.6 – 3.2Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Jets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
2.59
WPG
3.17
45% of the chances55%

The board read CBJ 2, WPG 5. The chances read CBJ 2.6, WPG 3.2.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
WPG
+1.8
goals above expected
WPG3.17 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ2.59 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

The Jets scored 1.8 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 07:35WPGA. Lowry0–1
  2. P1 18:27CBJM. Wood1–1
  3. P2 01:12WPGJ. Morrissey1–2
  4. P2 15:30WPGN. PionkPP1–3
  5. P3 02:45WPGK. Connor1–4
  6. P3 04:04CBJZ. Werenski2–4
  7. P3 06:23WPGL. Stanley2–5
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
36 shots
2
Final
82 shots
WPG
46 shots
5
CBJ attackWPG attack
CBJ WPG Goal
36
shots · 2 in
46
shots · 5 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJWPG
0 / 3
0.73 xG
High danger
1 / 3
0.65 xG
1 / 13
1.35 xG
Medium
2 / 16
1.82 xG
1 / 38
0.51 xG
Low
2 / 41
0.69 xG

The Blue Jackets went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B
E. Comrie
+0.6
WPG · 20/22
F
E. Merzlikins
−1.8
CBJ · 25/30
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Jets pull away from the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 11–11
  1. 07:35WPGA. Lowry(N. Niederreiter, N. Pionk)0–1
  2. 18:27CBJM. Wood(D. Severson, E. Merzlikins)1–1
2ndshots 4–8
  1. 01:12WPGJ. Morrissey(M. Scheifele, K. Connor)1–2
  2. 15:30WPGN. Pionkpower play(G. Nyquist, N. Niederreiter)1–3
3rdshots 7–11
  1. 02:45WPGK. Connor(M. Scheifele, J. Morrissey)1–4
  2. 04:04CBJZ. Werenski(C. Sillinger, C. Coyle)2–4
  3. 06:23WPGL. Stanley(M. Scheifele, L. Schenn)2–5

score reads CBJ–WPG

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
3.17
WPG chances
Goals their shots were worth
+1.8
Finishing
Goals above what those chances were worth
1.046
WPG puck luck
Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
52.6%
Shot attempts
Over half — they had the puck more
Split by club

Who controlled the game

2.59Expected goals3.17
WPG 55% of the chance quality
22Shots on goal30
3High-danger chances3
54All attempts (Corsi)60
Adjusted for score: CBJ 52% · WPG 48%
Faceoffs · WPG won75%off35%neu58%def
Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected
High dangerslot & crease
CBJ0 / 3 · 0.73 xG
WPG1 / 3 · 0.65 xG
Medium dangermid-range
CBJ1 / 13 · 1.35 xG
WPG2 / 16 · 1.82 xG
Low dangerperimeter & point
CBJ1 / 38 · 0.51 xG
WPG2 / 41 · 0.69 xG

WPG went 2-for-41 from low danger on 0.69 expected goals — 1.3 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual
CBJ
2 G · 2.59 xG · -0.6
WPG
5 G · 3.17 xG · +1.8
0123456

CBJ finished -0.6 against expected, WPG +1.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model
Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots
CBJ
WRIST1/22
SLAP0/3
TIP IN0/4
SNAP0/4
BACKHAND1/2
WRAP AROUND0/1
DEFLECTED0/0
BAT0/0
OTHER0/18
WPG
WRIST2/18
SLAP2/12
TIP IN1/6
SNAP0/5
BACKHAND0/3
WRAP AROUND0/0
DEFLECTED0/1
BAT0/1
OTHER0/14
CBJ
WPG
Off the rush
2 G on 22
2.02 xG
5 G on 29
2.46 xG
Off rebounds
0 G on 1
0.12 xG
0 G on 2
0.37 xG

Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 1-for-22, WPG 2-for-18. WPG scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG
Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD
High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi
Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.
Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx
Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO
Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected
E. Merzlikins
CBJ · 25/30 · .833
-1.8
saved above expected
F
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger1/30.7-0.3
Medium2/161.8-0.2
Low2/410.7-1.3

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

E. Comrie
WPG · 20/22 · .909
+0.6
saved above expected
B
the night
By dangerG/attxGsaved
High danger0/30.7+0.7
Medium1/131.4+0.3
Low1/380.5-0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

82 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates
CBJ
36 shots
2
Final
82 shots
WPG
46 shots
5
CBJ attackWPG attack
CBJ WPG Goal

Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, WPG right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first
Three stars · computed, not voted
M. Scheifele
#55 · C · WPG
0 G · 3 A · 1 SOG · 17:41 on ice · +2
J. Morrissey
#44 · D · WPG
1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 22:14 on ice · +1
N. Pionk
#4 · D · WPG
1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 20:16 on ice
Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Tue, Nov 18
Open the pre-game read
Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:33 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.6–2.5 game favoring Columbus, assigning the Blue Jackets 52% win probability. This is as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Columbus owns the underlying play. At 5v5, they sit at 52.0% xG% with 51.0% Corsi%, against Winnipeg's 48.0% xG% and 49.0% Corsi%. Both teams carry PDO near even (1.003 for Columbus, 0.998 for Winnipeg). The shot-quality edge belongs to the Jackets, but barely.

Boone Jenner is the driver for Columbus. He's running 0.98 xG/60 with 11G 21A at a 9.6% shooting rate. The catch: only 2 of those goals come from high-danger areas, which suggests his finishing is efficient on cleaner chances. Mathieu Olivier is the variance play—0.89 xG/60, 12G 9A at 13.3% shooting with just 1 HD goal. That shooting percentage is unsustainable and masks thinner underlying production.

Winnipeg's offense splits between volume and finishing. Kyle Connor leads with 25G 30A at 0.83 xG/60 and 13.0% shooting (2 HD goals). Nino Niederreiter operates at lower volume—0.87 xG/60, 6G 6A—but has clustered production in high-danger areas with 3 HD goals. If Niederreiter's net-front efficiency holds, the Jets can keep this close.

The structural constraint: Columbus has generated 0% of its goals from high-danger and rebound situations, suggesting an offensive profile built on clean looks. Conor Garland is their defensive weak link. Winnipeg faces the same profile—0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate—with Colin Miller as the exposed defender.

This is what a genuine coin flip looks like. Columbus should win on process, and the model reflects that with a 52% edge. But Olivier's shooting rate will regress, and Niederreiter's net-front production could sustain the gap. Two equally plausible outcomes, both compatible with the underlying data. The model's call is probably right.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

CBJ 52%
52%
CBJ
Model favorite
52%
48%
CBJ50WPG

CBJ by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.5 WPG; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →WPG
52.0%48.0%
51.0%49.0%
2.632.34
2.432.55
2.121.90
1.982.10
1.0030.998

CBJ holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.998) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CBJ
5-3-2
-1 GD · 2d rest
WPG
5-5-0
+0 GD · 2d rest
1.003
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it

Keys to the game

Where the edges live
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Things to watch
  • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 48.0%.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score
CBJ
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
2 days rest.970 last start
Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WPG
Expected in goal
C. Hellebuyck
2 days rest.912 last start
Backup Connor Hellebuyck · +5.5 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ
Boone Jenner11G 21A
0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
WPG
Nino Niederreiter6G 6A
0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 8.6% sh
Kyle Connor25G 30A
0.83 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
Keep going

Where to next

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