Motion-blurred skater in a Washington Capitals sweater

Breakdown · EDM at WSH

Capitals pull away from the Oilers

FinalWed, Nov 19

EDMEdmonton Oilers4 WSHWashington Capitals7

The verdict · stolen

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.78–3.96 and won anyway.

EDM 4 · WSH 7

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:50 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington's 7–4 victory masked a closer underlying game—the Oilers held a 4.78 to 3.96 advantage in expected goals.

The Capitals made their chances count. At 0.097 xG per shot, they generated far more dangerous looks than Edmonton's 0.065, and converted three of five high-danger chances. L. Thompson (WSH) exceeded his expected save rate by 0.78 goals; S. Skinner (EDM) fell 1.04 short, a decisive difference in net.

Washington also dominated off the rush, scoring five goals on 26 chances; Edmonton scored twice on 31. Combined with Thompson's outperformance, that buried Edmonton's xG advantage.

J. Carlson led with three assists in 20:31; C. McMichael matched him with three assists in 16:52. C. McDavid recorded two assists in 24:02 despite the blowout margin, a rare bright spot for Edmonton. The Capitals held 42% of shot attempts (22–30), but that frame obscures the real story: quality mattered more than volume.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 19

EDM

WSH

Capitals pull away from the Oilers

Chances 4.8 – 4.0Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

The Oilers deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value

EDM

4.78

WSH

3.96

55% of the chances45%

The board read EDM 4, WSH 7. The chances read EDM 4.8, WSH 4.0.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

WSH

+3.0

goals above expected

WSH3.96 expected · 7 scored

Expected

Scored

EDM4.78 expected · 4 scored

Expected

Scored

The Capitals scored 3.0 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 02:17WSHA. Protas0–1
P1 06:04WSHA. Ovechkin0–2
P1 07:05EDMD. Nurse1–2
P1 10:34WSHR. Leonard1–3
P1 12:17EDMD. Nurse2–3
P2 11:49WSHR. Leonard2–4
P3 02:41EDMD. Tomasek3–4

+4 more on the full breakdown

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

EDM

48 shots

Final

83 shots

WSH

35 shots

EDM WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 4 in

shots · 7 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

EDMWSH

1 / 9

2.04 xG

High danger

3 / 5

2.03 xG

1 / 19

2.28 xG

Medium

4 / 12

1.43 xG

2 / 46

0.46 xG

Low

0 / 24

0.50 xG

The Capitals buried 3 of 5 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

B+

L. Thompson

+0.8

WSH · 26/30

D-

S. Skinner

−1.0

EDM · 15/20

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Capitals pull away from the Oilers

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 9–11

02:17WSHA. Protas(J. Carlson, J. Sourdif)0–1
06:04WSHA. Ovechkin(J. Chychrun, M. Roy)0–2
07:05EDMD. Nurse(C. McDavid, L. Draisaitl)1–2
10:34WSHR. Leonard(C. McMichael, J. Carlson)1–3
12:17EDMD. Nurse(Z. Hyman)2–3

2ndshots 5–5

11:49WSHR. Leonard(C. McMichael)2–4

3rdshots 16–6

02:41EDMD. Tomasek(A. Mangiapane, M. Janmark)3–4
06:37WSHA. Beauvillier(D. Strome, J. Chychrun)3–5
07:47EDML. Draisaitlpower play(C. McDavid, E. Bouchard)4–5
18:59WSHT. Wilsonempty net(C. McMichael, J. Carlson)4–6
19:27WSHT. Wilsonempty net4–7

score reads EDM–WSH

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.96

WSH chances

Goals their shots were worth

+3.0

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.117

WSH puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

35.7%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

4.78Expected goals3.96

EDM 55% of the chance quality

30Shots on goal22

9High-danger chances5

74All attempts (Corsi)41

Adjusted for score: EDM 69% · WSH 31%

Faceoffs · WSH won35%off61%neu36%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

EDM1 / 9 · 2.04 xG

WSH3 / 5 · 2.03 xG

Medium dangermid-range

EDM1 / 19 · 2.28 xG

WSH4 / 12 · 1.43 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

EDM2 / 46 · 0.46 xG

WSH0 / 24 · 0.50 xG

WSH went 4-for-12 from medium danger on 1.43 expected goals — 2.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

EDM

4 G · 4.78 xG · -0.8

WSH

7 G · 3.96 xG · +3.0

012345678

EDM finished -0.8 against expected, WSH +3.0.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

EDM

SNAP2/25

BACKHAND1/8

SLAP1/7

TIP IN0/5

WRIST0/3

OTHER0/26

WSH

SNAP5/22

BACKHAND1/2

SLAP0/2

TIP IN1/4

WRIST0/5

OTHER0/6

EDM

WSH

Off the rush

2 G on 31

3.69 xG

5 G on 26

3.11 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

0.49 xG

1 G on 1

0.18 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: EDM went 2-for-25, WSH 5-for-22. WSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

S. Skinner

EDM · 15/20 · .750

-1.0

saved above expected

D-

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger3/52.0-1.0

Medium4/121.4-2.6

Low0/240.5+0.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

L. Thompson

WSH · 26/30 · .867

+0.8

saved above expected

B+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/92.0+1.0

Medium1/192.3+1.3

Low2/460.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

83 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

EDM

48 shots

Final

83 shots

WSH

35 shots

EDM WSH GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — EDM left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Carlson

#74 · D · WSH

0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 20:31 on ice · +4

C. McMichael

#24 · L · WSH

0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 16:52 on ice · +3

C. McDavid

#97 · C · EDM

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 24:02 on ice · -2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Wed, Nov 19

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:49 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects an EDM 2.6 - 2.7 WSH game with the Capitals at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Edmonton has the better underlying metrics—52.0% xG%, 50.0% Corsi%—but the Oilers are collapsing in results, sitting -12 in goal differential over their last 10. The split is almost certainly bad luck. Their 0.982 PDO is the tell: they're underperforming roughly two percent, the kind of margin that typically snaps back sharply toward one across a larger sample. Expect regression upward.

Washington is running the opposite way. A 1.018 PDO means the Capitals are outperforming their underlying metrics—50.0% xG%, 49.0% Corsi%—by roughly the same margin, cashing in on luck. That doesn't hold. The model is favoring Washington slightly because the variance is currently working in their direction, not because they're generating more quality.

Both teams face goaltending questions on the back-to-back. C. Lindgren for Washington and S. Skinner for Edmonton could be tired or could trigger a backup. Fatigue tips these spots more than starting prowess.

Players to Watch

EDM

Zach Hyman: 1.23 xG/60, 14G 13A, 13.0% shooting
Connor McDavid: 0.92 xG/60, 25G 33A, 13.7% shooting

WSH

Alex Ovechkin: 0.97 xG/60, 19G 17A, 13.8% shooting
Anthony Beauvillier: 0.89 xG/60, 14G 9A, 10.4% shooting

The math says Edmonton should win this over time. Tonight, Washington's hot hand could steal it.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

WSH 51%

51%

WSH

Model favorite

49%

51%

EDM50WSH

WSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 2.6–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

EDM← edge

edge →WSH

52.0%50.0%

50.0%49.0%

2.642.62

2.472.62

2.132.18

2.291.79

0.9821.018

EDM holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.982 vs 1.018) says WSH has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

EDM

4-4-2

-12 GD · 1d rest

WSH

3-5-2

-2 GD · 1d rest

0.982

EDM PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

1.018

WSH PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
The Oilers' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

C. Lindgren is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
S. Skinner is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Oilers are underwater at -12 goal differential over their last 10.
The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

EDM

Expected in goal

S. Skinner

back-to-back.852 last start

Backup Connor Ingram · +1.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

WSH

Expected in goal

C. Lindgren

back-to-back.968 last start

Backup Logan Thompson · +29.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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