Recap · EDM at WSH

Capitals pull away from the Oilers

The Capitals stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 4.78–3.96 and won anyway.

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:50 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarity

Away

EDM

Edmonton Oilers

Home

WSH

Washington Capitals

FINAL

Process vs result

The underlying story

4.78Expected goals3.96

55% share for the better side

30Shot attempts (SOG)22

9High-danger chances5

74Corsi (all attempts)41

Score-adjusted: 69% / 31%

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

Washington's 7–4 victory masked a closer underlying game—the Oilers held a 4.78 to 3.96 advantage in expected goals.

The Capitals made their chances count. At 0.097 xG per shot, they generated far more dangerous looks than Edmonton's 0.065, and converted three of five high-danger chances. L. Thompson (WSH) exceeded his expected save rate by 0.78 goals; S. Skinner (EDM) fell 1.04 short, a decisive difference in net.

Washington also dominated off the rush, scoring five goals on 26 chances; Edmonton scored twice on 31. Combined with Thompson's outperformance, that buried Edmonton's xG advantage.

J. Carlson led with three assists in 20:31; C. McMichael matched him with three assists in 16:52. C. McDavid recorded two assists in 24:02 despite the blowout margin, a rare bright spot for Edmonton. The Capitals held 42% of shot attempts (22–30), but that frame obscures the real story: quality mattered more than volume.

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

EDM1 / 9 · 2.04 xG

WSH3 / 5 · 2.03 xG

Medium dangermid-range

EDM1 / 19 · 2.28 xG

WSH4 / 12 · 1.43 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

EDM2 / 46 · 0.46 xG

WSH0 / 24 · 0.50 xG

WSH went 4-for-12 from medium danger on 1.43 expected goals — 2.6 above expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

EDM

4 G · 4.78 xG · -0.8

WSH

7 G · 3.96 xG · +3.0

012345678

Goalies · GSAx (goals saved above expected)

S. SkinnerEDM

-1.0

L. ThompsonWSH

+0.8

EDM finished -0.8 against expected, WSH +3.0 — S. Skinner (EDM) allowed 1.0 more goals than expected.

Source · Backcheck xG model

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

EDM

SNAP2/25

BACKHAND1/8

SLAP1/7

TIP IN0/5

WRIST0/3

OTHER0/26

WSH

SNAP5/22

BACKHAND1/2

SLAP0/2

TIP IN1/4

WRIST0/5

OTHER0/6

EDM

WSH

Off the rush

2 G on 31 · 3.69 xG

5 G on 26 · 3.11 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5 · 0.49 xG

1 G on 1 · 0.18 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: EDM went 2-for-25, WSH 5-for-22. WSH scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

Three stars · computed, not voted

J. Carlson

#74 · D · WSH

0 G · 3 A · 3 SOG · 20:31 TOI · +4

C. McMichael

#24 · L · WSH

0 G · 3 A · 0 SOG · 16:52 TOI · +3

C. McDavid

#97 · C · EDM

0 G · 2 A · 2 SOG · 24:02 TOI · -2

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model flagged

S. Skinner (EDM) gave up 1.0 goals more than expected — well below their workload.
WSH generated far more dangerous chances — 0.097 xG/shot vs 0.065. Quality over quantity.
WSH was clinical in the high-danger zone — 3/5 on HD chances (60%).
EDM scored 2 goals from low-danger spots — the opposing goalie needs to have those.
WSH was lethal off the rush — 5 goals on 26 rush chances.
EDM was lethal off the rush — 2 goals on 31 rush chances.
EDM created 5 rebound opportunities (0 converted) — crashing the net effectively.
WSH outperformed their expected goals by 3.0 — elite finishing or lucky bounces.

Preview · EDM at WSH · 7:00 PM ET

Oilers at Capitals: a genuine coin flip

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:49 PMEdited for clarity

Win probability

The model's lean

51%

WSH

Model favorite

49%

51%

EDM50WSH

WSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score EDM 2.6–2.7 WSH; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season profile · edge from the spine

Tale of the tape

EDM← edge

edge →WSH

52.0%5v5 xG%50.0%

50.0%Corsi%49.0%

2.64xGF / 602.62

2.47xGA / 602.62

2.13Goals for / gm2.18

2.29Goals against / gm1.79

0.982PDO — luck, not skill1.018

EDM holds 4 of 6 process categories — and PDO (0.982 vs 1.018) says WSH has run hotter.

Source · MoneyPuck season tables · 5v5

The model projects an EDM 2.6 - 2.7 WSH game with the Capitals at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.

Edmonton has the better underlying metrics—52.0% xG%, 50.0% Corsi%—but the Oilers are collapsing in results, sitting -12 in goal differential over their last 10. The split is almost certainly bad luck. Their 0.982 PDO is the tell: they're underperforming roughly two percent, the kind of margin that typically snaps back sharply toward one across a larger sample. Expect regression upward.

Washington is running the opposite way. A 1.018 PDO means the Capitals are outperforming their underlying metrics—50.0% xG%, 49.0% Corsi%—by roughly the same margin, cashing in on luck. That doesn't hold. The model is favoring Washington slightly because the variance is currently working in their direction, not because they're generating more quality.

Both teams face goaltending questions on the back-to-back. C. Lindgren for Washington and S. Skinner for Edmonton could be tired or could trigger a backup. Fatigue tips these spots more than starting prowess.

Players to Watch

EDM

Zach Hyman: 1.23 xG/60, 14G 13A, 13.0% shooting
Connor McDavid: 0.92 xG/60, 25G 33A, 13.7% shooting

WSH

Alex Ovechkin: 0.97 xG/60, 19G 17A, 13.8% shooting
Anthony Beauvillier: 0.89 xG/60, 14G 9A, 10.4% shooting

The math says Edmonton should win this over time. Tonight, Washington's hot hand could steal it.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

EDM

Zach Hyman14G 13A

1.23 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.0% sh

Connor McDavid25G 33A

0.92 xG/60 · 5 HD · 13.7% sh

WSH

Alex Ovechkin19G 17A

0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh

Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A

0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh

Source · MoneyPuck skaters