Anaheim dominated the high-danger chances 8–1, yet barely outran Boston 4–3 — a result that understates how thoroughly the Ducks controlled what matters most.

The Ducks held 46% of shot attempts (33–39 on goal) and converted their efficiency into a 3.88–3.56 expected-goals edge. But the lopsided high-danger count — eight prime scoring chances to Boston's one — should have produced a wider margin.

Boston survived through rush efficiency: the Bruins scored three goals on 36 rush attempts, a lethal conversion rate compared to Anaheim's two on 29. The Ducks scored two of their four goals from low-danger spots — the kind of chances J. Korpisalo had to have.

J. Korpisalo made 29 saves on 33 shots (0.879 SV%). L. Dostal was far superior: 36-for-39 (0.923 SV%), outperforming his expected goals by 0.56.

Ian Moore's slap shot from the top of the circles in the third period (16:25) was the game's turning point.

Three Stars

• #27 H. Lindholm (BOS) — 2A in 22:01
• #39 M. Geekie (BOS) — 2G in 18:23
• #23 M. McTavish (ANA) — 2A in 17:27

Anaheim's underlying play gives it the edge. The model projects a 2.5 - 2.9 goal game with the Ducks at 56% win probability, built on possession metrics that favor the visitors decisively. At 5v5, Anaheim generates 52.0% expected goals to Boston's 47.0% and controls the puck at 52.0% Corsi to 49.0%. The territorial advantage is clear.

The model's case strengthens when you factor in PDO regression. Anaheim sits at 0.981, meaning execution and goaltending have underperformed their underlying numbers. Boston is at 1.023, having caught luck on both fronts. Over 60 minutes, regression logic favors Anaheim—variance typically resets.

Fatigue introduces risk. L. Dostal and J. Swayman are both on back-to-backs, meaning a backup appearance or a visibly worn starter could alter the game's texture early.

Anaheim's scoring advantage is decisive. Beckett Sennecke (20G, 1.03 xG/60, 8 high-danger goals) and Cutter Gauthier (25G, 0.99 xG/60, 2 HD goals) form an elite pairing that Boston's secondary scoring cannot match. Viktor Arvidsson (1.04 xG/60, 18G, 2 HD goals) keeps the Bruins in contention, but Tanner Jeannot (6G, 0.75 xG/60) doesn't generate sufficient volume to offset Anaheim's wing depth.

Boston's path runs through defensive discipline and structure, betting on Arvidsson to capitalize on limited clean looks. Anaheim plays the better hockey and should be fresher. The model is decisive. Ducks.