Backcheck
Pick club
Motion-blurred skater in a Columbus Blue Jackets sweater
← Thu, Nov 20 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at TOR

Blue Jackets edge the Maple Leafs in overtime

Final / OTThu, Nov 20
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets3TORToronto Maple Leafs2
The verdict · earned

The Blue Jackets earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 3 · TOR 2
◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:55 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Columbus's overtime victory reflected their clear superiority in underlying play. Z. Werenski orchestrated a 57% expected-goals advantage from the blue line with three assists, anchored by an 8-3 high-danger-chance edge. CBJ's shot quality exceeded Toronto's — 0.060 xG per attempt versus 0.039. They capitalized with three goals on 26 rush chances.

Toronto's shot volume (49% of attempts) masked a critical weakness: only 43% of expected goals. They generated pressure without consequence. J. Tavares scored and assisted in defeat, but Toronto never generated the dangerous chances needed to overcome their quality deficit.

Both J. Greaves and J. Woll played above their expected levels, compressing the 3.76–2.83 xG split into a single-goal margin. Elite goaltending kept the scoreline tighter than underlying play justified.

A. Fantilli scored the game-winner at 04:21 of overtime with a wrist shot from the doorstep, rewarding Columbus's dominance. Werenski's playmaking and CBJ's lethal finishing on the rush proved the decisive difference.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · OT · Nov 20
CBJ
3
TOR
2

Blue Jackets edge the Maple Leafs in overtime

Chances 3.8 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Blue Jackets earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
3.76
TOR
2.83
57% of the chances43%

The board read CBJ 3, TOR 2. The chances read CBJ 3.8, TOR 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
CBJ
−0.8
goals above expected
CBJ3.76 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
TOR2.83 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored

Both sides finished close to what their chances were worth. This one was earned on the ice.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 03:17CBJD. Voronkov1–0
  2. P2 12:01CBJA. Fantilli2–0
  3. P2 14:12TORD. Mermis2–1
  4. P3 03:33TORJ. Tavares2–2
  5. OT 04:21CBJA. Fantilli3–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
46 shots
3
Final
90 shots
TOR
44 shots
2
CBJ attackTOR attack
CBJ TOR Goal
46
shots · 3 in
44
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJTOR
2 / 8
2.09 xG
High danger
1 / 3
0.59 xG
0 / 9
0.99 xG
Medium
0 / 14
1.56 xG
1 / 46
0.69 xG
Low
1 / 55
0.68 xG

The Blue Jackets buried 2 of 8 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
B+
J. Greaves
+0.8
CBJ · 27/29
B+
J. Woll
+0.8
TOR · 27/30
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Blue Jackets edge the Maple Leafs in overtime

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 4–12no goals
    2ndshots 10–8
    1. 03:17CBJD. Voronkov(A. Fantilli, Z. Werenski)1–0
    2. 12:01CBJA. Fantilli(D. Voronkov, Z. Werenski)2–0
    3. 14:12TORD. Mermis(J. Tavares)2–1
    3rdshots 12–8
    1. 03:33TORJ. Tavares(E. Cowan, O. Ekman-Larsson)2–2
    OTshots 4–1
    1. 04:21CBJA. Fantilli(Z. Werenski)3–2

    score reads CBJ–TOR

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.76
    CBJ chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −0.8
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.020
    CBJ puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    46.7%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.76Expected goals2.83
    CBJ 57% of the chance quality
    30Shots on goal29
    8High-danger chances3
    63All attempts (Corsi)72
    Adjusted for score: CBJ 45% · TOR 55%
    Faceoffs · TOR won77%off64%neu61%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CBJ2 / 8 · 2.09 xG
    TOR1 / 3 · 0.59 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CBJ0 / 9 · 0.99 xG
    TOR0 / 14 · 1.56 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CBJ1 / 46 · 0.69 xG
    TOR1 / 55 · 0.68 xG

    TOR went 0-for-14 from medium danger on 1.56 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CBJ
    3 G · 3.76 xG · -0.8
    TOR
    2 G · 2.83 xG · -0.8
    012345

    CBJ finished -0.8 against expected, TOR -0.8.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CBJ
    WRIST2/34
    TIP IN0/4
    BACKHAND0/0
    SLAP0/5
    SNAP0/1
    DEFLECTED1/2
    OTHER0/17
    TOR
    WRIST2/27
    TIP IN0/7
    BACKHAND0/7
    SLAP0/1
    SNAP0/2
    DEFLECTED0/0
    OTHER0/28
    CBJ
    TOR
    Off the rush
    3 G on 26
    2.73 xG
    1 G on 28
    1.96 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 6
    0.77 xG
    0 G on 3
    0.42 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 2-for-34, TOR 2-for-27. CBJ scored 3 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Greaves
    CBJ · 27/29 · .931
    +0.8
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/30.6-0.4
    Medium0/141.6+1.6
    Low1/550.7-0.3

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Woll
    TOR · 27/30 · .900
    +0.8
    saved above expected
    B+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/82.1+0.1
    Medium0/91.0+1.0
    Low1/460.7-0.3

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    90 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CBJ
    46 shots
    3
    Final
    90 shots
    TOR
    44 shots
    2
    CBJ attackTOR attack
    CBJ TOR Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, TOR right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    Z. Werenski
    #8 · D · CBJ
    0 G · 3 A · 6 SOG · 28:48 on ice · +2
    A. Fantilli
    #19 · C · CBJ
    2 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 22:19 on ice · +2
    J. Tavares
    #91 · C · TOR
    1 G · 1 A · 5 SOG · 20:59 on ice
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Nov 20
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:52 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a 2.6–2.5 CBJ victory with the Blue Jackets at 53% win probability. This is as close to even as the metrics get.

    Columbus owns the underlying play. At 5v5, the Blue Jackets generate 52.0% expected goals to Toronto's 46.0%—a real advantage. Corsi backs this up at 51.0% to 45.0%, suggesting the Blue Jackets should control territorial possession. But Columbus is -7 in goal differential over their last 10 games, meaning recent results have diverged from what the play suggests. Neither team has been helped by unusual puck luck: Columbus's PDO sits at 1.003, Toronto's at 1.002, both neutral.

    Both starting goaltenders arrive on back-to-backs, which creates unpredictability around who takes the crease. Either E. Merzlikins or J. Woll might be replaced by a backup, depending on how each team manages rest.

    The matchup tilts toward Columbus's depth. Boone Jenner has compiled 11 goals and 21 assists on 0.98 xG/60, with two high-danger markers on a 9.6% shooting rate—efficiency that suggests he's getting chances where teams actually lose playoff games. Mathieu Olivier has scored 12 goals on a blistering 13.3% shooting rate, though his 0.89 xG/60 means some regression is likely coming.

    Toronto counters with volume. Auston Matthews leads at 1.10 xG/60, with 17 goals and 13 assists on a 10.6% clip. John Tavares has posted 15 goals and 24 assists at 0.91 xG/60 on a 12.4% clip, with three high-danger goals providing a steadier secondary threat.

    The real edge is Columbus's puck play. Toronto's metrics lag meaningfully, yet the team remains dangerous because of personnel. Neither team figures to blow the other out. A one-goal game wouldn't surprise anyone looking at these numbers.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    CBJ 53%
    53%
    CBJ
    Model favorite
    53%
    47%
    CBJ50TOR

    CBJ by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CBJ 2.6–2.5 TOR; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ← edge
    edge →TOR
    52.0%46.0%
    51.0%45.0%
    2.632.24
    2.432.67
    2.122.09
    1.982.52
    1.0031.002

    CBJ holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 1.002) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · Last 10
    CBJ
    4-4-2
    -7 GD · 1d rest
    TOR
    4-5-1
    -3 GD · 1d rest
    1.003
    CBJ PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.002
    TOR PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    Where the edges live
    • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
    • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    Things to watch
    • The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 52.0% 5v5 xG vs 46.0%.
    • The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
    • J. Woll is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • E. Merzlikins is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
    • The Blue Jackets are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
    Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

    Lineups

    NHL box score
    CBJ
    Expected in goal
    E. Merzlikins
    back-to-back.833 last start
    Backup Jet Greaves · +16.5 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    TOR
    Expected in goal
    J. Woll
    back-to-back.966 last start
    Backup Joseph Woll · -6.6 GSAx this season
    Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

    No completed game on file for this club yet.

    Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ
    Boone Jenner11G 21A
    0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
    Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
    TOR
    Auston Matthews17G 13A
    1.10 xG/60 · 1 HD · 10.6% sh
    John Tavares15G 24A
    0.91 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.4% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page