Motion-blurred skater in a Florida Panthers sweater

Breakdown · NJD at FLA

Panthers shut out the Devils, 1-0

FinalThu, Nov 20

NJDNew Jersey Devils0 FLAFlorida Panthers1

The verdict · stolen

The Panthers stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 3.03–2.75 and won anyway.

NJD 0 · FLA 1

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:56 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

New Jersey dominated the chance battle and lost 1-0. The Devils generated 5 high-danger chances to Florida's 2, converted none, while S. Reinhart's wrist shot from a sharp angle at 12:58 of the first period defined the evening. New Jersey also held a slight edge in expected goals (3.03–2.75) and owned 32 shot attempts to Florida's 24.

S. Bobrovsky was the margin of victory. The Panthers' goaltender saved 3.03 goals above expected on 32 shots (32 for 32), a perfect night. J. Allen for New Jersey stopped 1.75 above expected on 23 of 24 shots — strong work that went unrewarded by his team's execution.

G. Forsling added the assist (1A in 24:26) for Florida, the only supporting cast Reinhart needed. S. Nemec (25:04) held his own for New Jersey but couldn't exploit the chance creation his team manufactured.

The story isn't luck — it's finishing. New Jersey's 0 for 5 on high-danger chances won't become a trend. Neither will Bobrovsky's 32-for-32 night. But in a 1-0 game, both extremes happened, and only the latter mattered.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 20

NJD

FLA

Panthers shut out the Devils, 1-0

Chances 3.0 – 2.8Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Panthers took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NJD

3.03

FLA

2.75

52% of the chances48%

The board read NJD 0, FLA 1. The chances read NJD 3.0, FLA 2.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

FLA

−1.8

goals above expected

FLA2.75 expected · 1 scored

Expected

Scored

NJD3.03 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Devils left 3.0 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 12:58FLAS. Reinhart0–1

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NJD

40 shots

Final

86 shots

FLA

46 shots

NJD FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 0 in

shots · 1 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NJDFLA

0 / 5

1.19 xG

High danger

0 / 2

0.50 xG

0 / 13

1.28 xG

Medium

1 / 13

1.43 xG

0 / 36

0.57 xG

Low

0 / 44

0.82 xG

The Devils went 0 for 5 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

S. Bobrovsky

+3.0

FLA · 32/32

J. Allen

+1.8

NJD · 23/24

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Panthers shut out the Devils, 1-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 13–9

12:58FLAS. Reinhart(G. Forsling)0–1

2ndshots 7–11no goals

3rdshots 12–4no goals

score reads NJD–FLA

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

2.75

FLA chances

Goals their shots were worth

−1.8

Finishing

Goals below what those chances were worth

1.017

FLA puck luck

About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces

52.2%

Shot attempts

Over half — they had the puck more

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.03Expected goals2.75

NJD 52% of the chance quality

32Shots on goal24

5High-danger chances2

54All attempts (Corsi)59

Adjusted for score: NJD 51% · FLA 49%

Faceoffs · FLA won59%off33%neu40%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NJD0 / 5 · 1.19 xG

FLA0 / 2 · 0.50 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NJD0 / 13 · 1.28 xG

FLA1 / 13 · 1.43 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NJD0 / 36 · 0.57 xG

FLA0 / 44 · 0.82 xG

NJD went 0-for-13 from medium danger on 1.28 expected goals — 1.3 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NJD

0 G · 3.03 xG · -3.0

FLA

1 G · 2.75 xG · -1.8

01234

NJD finished -3.0 against expected, FLA -1.8.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NJD

SNAP0/6

WRIST0/20

SLAP0/5

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/3

DEFLECTED0/2

WRAP AROUND0/1

OTHER0/14

FLA

SNAP0/30

WRIST1/8

SLAP0/4

BACKHAND0/3

TIP IN0/1

DEFLECTED0/0

WRAP AROUND0/0

OTHER0/13

NJD

FLA

Off the rush

0 G on 19

1.62 xG

1 G on 31

2.36 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 5

0.76 xG

0 G on 1

0.04 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NJD went 0-for-6, FLA 0-for-30.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

J. Allen

NJD · 23/24 · .958

+1.8

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/20.5+0.5

Medium1/131.4+0.4

Low0/440.8+0.8

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

S. Bobrovsky

FLA · 32/32 · 1.000

+3.0

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/51.2+1.2

Medium0/131.3+1.3

Low0/360.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

86 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NJD

40 shots

Final

86 shots

FLA

46 shots

NJD FLA GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NJD left, FLA right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

G. Forsling

#42 · D · FLA

0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 24:26 on ice · +1

S. Reinhart

#13 · C · FLA

1 G · 0 A · 3 SOG · 20:08 on ice · +1

S. Nemec

#17 · D · NJD

0 G · 0 A · 1 SOG · 25:04 on ice

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Nov 20

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:53 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The model projects a 2.5–2.6 goal game with Florida at 52% win probability—a statistical dead heat.

New Jersey's underlying metrics barely trail. At 5v5, the Devils run 50.0% xG and 51.0% Corsi compared to the Panthers' 49.0% xG and 52.0% Corsi. But form matters. Over their last 10 games, the Devils sit at -8 goal differential—a sign they're playing with fire.

The real story is PDO. New Jersey's 0.971 mark is running cold, which means positive regression is coming; Florida's 0.989 is closer to neutral. Small edges compound. The goaltending split doesn't help the Devils either. J. Markstrom plays on the second night of a back-to-back, which may mean a backup start or a tired starter either way.

The individual matchups are tight. For New Jersey, Timo Meier is the obvious weapon—1.08 xG per 60, 13 goals and 15 assists on a 6.7% shooting rate that suggests room to run. Jack Hughes is no afterthought, either: 18 goals and 17 assists at 0.88 xG/60, but his 11.5% shooting rate is already unsustainably high, and regression risk here works against the Devils.

Florida's setup is subtly more diverse. Sam Bennett has 18 goals and 19 assists at 0.97 xG per 60 and 6 high-danger goals on a 13.1% shooting rate—the kind of quiet production that catches teams off-guard. Brad Marchand brings a different flavor: 17 goals on just 0.93 xG/60 and a preposterous 19.5% shooting rate. That's the kind of number that doesn't hold, but when a player is running it, it's worth respecting tonight.

The math is unforgiving here. Close underlying play, a form disadvantage for New Jersey, and a goaltending edge for Florida almost exactly offset one another. The Panthers get the nod by the thinnest margin—but a genuine coin flip is the honest take.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

FLA 52%

52%

FLA

Model favorite

48%

52%

NJD50FLA

FLA by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 2.5–2.6 FLA; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD← edge

edge →FLA

50.0%49.0%

51.0%52.0%

2.452.48

2.502.56

1.661.98

2.232.21

0.9710.989

FLA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.971 vs 0.989) says FLA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NJD

5-4-1

-8 GD · 1d rest

FLA

6-3-1

+5 GD · 2d rest

0.971

NJD PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.989

FLA PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Regression watch

The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Things to watch

J. Markstrom is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
The Devils are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
The Devils' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NJD

Expected in goal

J. Markstrom

back-to-back.828 last start

Backup Jacob Markstrom · -11.9 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

FLA

Expected in goal

S. Bobrovsky

2 days rest.667 last start

Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · -12.2 GSAx this season

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NJD

Timo Meier13G 15A

1.08 xG/60 · 3 HD · 6.7% sh

Jack Hughes18G 17A

0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 11.5% sh

FLA

Sam Bennett18G 19A

0.97 xG/60 · 6 HD · 13.1% sh

Brad Marchand17G 9A

0.93 xG/60 · 3 HD · 19.5% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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