Motion-blurred skater in a New York Islanders sweater

Breakdown · NYI at DET

Islanders shut out the Red Wings, 5-0

FinalThu, Nov 20

NYINew York Islanders5 DETDetroit Red Wings0

The verdict · coin flip

The Islanders won a genuine coin flip — neither side controlled the run of play.

NYI 5 · DET 0

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:52 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Islanders' 5-0 victory belied the underlying metrics: expected goals finished 3.28–3.44, nearly even with a marginal Islanders edge.

The Red Wings held 53% of shot attempts and generated six high-danger chances—one more than New York. But the numbers revealed two separate games: one on the scoresheet, one in the xG model. Detroit underperformed their expected goals by 3.28 (zero scored on 3.28 xG), while the Islanders overperformed theirs by 1.56 (five scored on 3.44 xG).

I. Sorokin (NYI) stopped all 29 shots he faced. J. Gibson (DET) made 21 saves on 26 shots, victimized by New York's precision: the Islanders scored two goals from low-danger spots and converted four on 29 rush chances. Detroit's opportunity set matched New York's, yet the Islanders capitalized and the Red Wings did not.

The turning point arrived early. Max Shabanov's backhander from the slot (P3, 06:52) opened the scoring.

Finishing efficiency—not shot volume or quality—decided this game. The Islanders' offense executed on difficult looks. Detroit wasted a competitive underlying performance.

Three Stars

M. Shabanov (NYI) — 2G, 1A in 14:31
C. Ritchie (NYI) — 1G, 1A in 13:48
C. Cizikas (NYI) — 2A in 11:01

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page

Final · Nov 20

NYI

DET

Islanders shut out the Red Wings, 5-0

Chances 3.4 – 3.3Did they deserve it? →

Did they deserve it?

Dead even on chances. The Islanders took it anyway.

Expected goals · chance value

NYI

3.44

DET

3.28

51% of the chances49%

The board read NYI 5, DET 0. The chances read NYI 3.4, DET 3.3.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations

Luck check

NYI

+1.6

goals above expected

NYI3.44 expected · 5 scored

Expected

Scored

DET3.28 expected · 0 scored

Expected

Scored

The Islanders scored 1.6 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season

Every goal, in order

P1 06:46NYIC. Ritchie1–0
P1 14:54NYIM. Shabanov2–0
P2 03:19NYIM. Barzal3–0
P2 05:04NYIB. Horvat4–0
P3 06:52NYIM. Shabanov5–0

NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model

Where the shots came from

NYI

38 shots

Final

80 shots

DET

42 shots

NYI DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

shots · 5 in

shots · 0 in

Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it

Chances by danger

NYIDET

1 / 6

1.39 xG

High danger

0 / 4

1.12 xG

2 / 15

1.52 xG

Medium

0 / 14

1.58 xG

2 / 32

0.54 xG

Low

0 / 41

0.59 xG

The Red Wings went 0 for 4 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance

In the net

A+

I. Sorokin

+3.3

NYI · 29/29

J. Gibson

−1.6

DET · 21/26

The numbers, checked

BACKCHECK

Islanders shut out the Red Wings, 5-0

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown

backcheckreport.com

01 / 08 · Final

Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play

1stshots 8–5

06:46NYIC. Ritchie(M. Shabanov, A. Boqvist)1–0
14:54NYIM. Shabanov(C. Cizikas, C. Ritchie)2–0

2ndshots 13–15

03:19NYIM. Barzal3–0
05:04NYIB. Horvat(R. Pulock, E. Heineman)4–0

3rdshots 5–9

06:52NYIM. Shabanov(C. Cizikas)5–0

score reads NYI–DET

Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)

Process vs result

The numbers

XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play

3.44

NYI chances

Goals their shots were worth

+1.6

Finishing

Goals above what those chances were worth

1.094

NYI puck luck

Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way

47.3%

Shot attempts

Under half — they were outshot

Split by club

Who controlled the game

3.44Expected goals3.28

NYI 51% of the chance quality

26Shots on goal29

6High-danger chances4

53All attempts (Corsi)59

Adjusted for score: NYI 41% · DET 59%

Faceoffs · DET won44%off68%neu58%def

Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG

How the game was won

The danger ladder

shotsgoalsexpected

High dangerslot & crease

NYI1 / 6 · 1.39 xG

DET0 / 4 · 1.12 xG

Medium dangermid-range

NYI2 / 15 · 1.52 xG

DET0 / 14 · 1.58 xG

Low dangerperimeter & point

NYI2 / 32 · 0.54 xG

DET0 / 41 · 0.59 xG

DET went 0-for-14 from medium danger on 1.58 expected goals — 1.6 left on the table.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play

The luck layer

Finishing vs expected

expectedactual

NYI

5 G · 3.44 xG · +1.6

DET

0 G · 3.28 xG · -3.3

0123456

NYI finished +1.6 against expected, DET -3.3.

Source · Backcheck xG model

Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +

What they shot — and what went in

Shot diet

goalsshots

NYI

SNAP3/15

WRIST0/8

SLAP1/10

BACKHAND1/4

TIP IN0/1

OTHER0/15

DET

SNAP0/16

WRIST0/15

SLAP0/3

BACKHAND0/5

TIP IN0/3

OTHER0/17

NYI

DET

Off the rush

4 G on 29

2.84 xG

0 G on 25

2.48 xG

Off rebounds

0 G on 2

0.30 xG

0 G on 2

0.41 xG

Snap shots carried the volume: NYI went 3-for-15, DET 0-for-16. NYI scored 4 of theirs off the rush.

Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types

New to these numbers?

Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

xG: Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
HD: High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
Corsi: Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
Adj.: Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
GSAx: Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
PDO: Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.

Shot by shot

In the net

Graded on goals saved above expected

I. Sorokin

NYI · 29/29 · 1.000

+3.3

saved above expected

A+

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger0/41.1+1.1

Medium0/141.6+1.6

Low0/410.6+0.6

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

J. Gibson

DET · 21/26 · .808

-1.6

saved above expected

the night

By dangerG/attxGsaved

High danger1/61.4+0.4

Medium2/151.5-0.5

Low2/320.5-1.5

A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

80 shots · press play to watch the game back

Where the shots came from

NHL play-by-play coordinates

NYI

38 shots

Final

80 shots

DET

42 shots

NYI DET GoalBigger dot · more dangerous look

Each club shoots toward its own end — NYI left, DET right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

Ranked from the box score

Three stars

Points first

Three stars · computed, not voted

M. Shabanov

#49 · R · NYI

2 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 14:31 on ice · +4

C. Ritchie

#64 · C · NYI

1 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 13:48 on ice · +2

C. Cizikas

#53 · C · NYI

0 G · 2 A · 0 SOG · 11:01 on ice · +4

Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck

What the model said beforehand

Before the game

Written Thu, Nov 20

Open the pre-game read

Written from the numbers

The read

Edited for clarity

◆ By the ModelJul 11, 4:51 PMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The model projects a 2.5–2.7 goal Red Wings win with Detroit at 53% probability—essentially a pick'em. This is close enough that coin-flip analysis actually matters.

Both teams trade shot quality at 5v5. Detroit edges in expected goals (49.0% xG% to 48.0%), but the Corsis run identical at 49.0%, meaning the difference barely registers in puck possession. Detroit's PDO (0.985) sits slightly below league average; the Islanders' (0.993) sits tighter to neutral, suggesting their results might regress back to their underlying metrics while Detroit's luck could break either way.

The goaltending situation tilts harder. C. Talbot (Islanders) and D. Rittich (Red Wings) are both on back-to-backs, which means backup duty is possible for either or a visibly tired starter. In a game this tight, a fresh goalie edge compounds quickly.

The forward groups show clearer separation. Anders Lee anchors the Islanders at 1.20 xG/60 with 9 goals but a lean 6.4% shooting rate—the mark of a player due for positive regression. Bo Horvat (18 goals, 12.8% shooting, 0.87 xG/60) runs the opposite way; his shooting percentage far outpaces his underlying metrics, which means his production is running on fumes.

Detroit's Alex DeBrincat (0.88 xG/60, 17 goals, 28 assists) profiles differently: his 9.0% shooting rate actually aligns with, or slightly exceeds, his quality, meaning his 17 goals reflect real finishing over variance. Marco Kasper (7 goals, 0.81 xG/60, 6.1% shooting) is Detroit's lower-volume option with room to grow if opportunity expands.

Both rosters carry identical structural quirks. Neither team has generated high-danger or rebound goals at 5v5 this season—a statistical impossibility that will correct, likely in one game. Alexander Romanov (Islanders) and Axel Sandin-Pellikka (Red Wings) are each the defensive weak link, meaning whoever cracks through first might avalanche.

The 53% Red Wings edge is real but gossamer-thin. It rests on goaltender availability and whether Detroit's forwards finally convert the quality looks their metrics say they're generating. The Islanders' best path is banking on Horvat and Lee running hotter than their underlying production suggests they should. In games this even, margins move on durability and which team's variance swings first.

What the model said beforehand

The model's lean

DET 53%

53%

DET

Model favorite

47%

53%

NYI50DET

DET by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYI 2.5–2.7 DET; 18% chance it's tied after 60.

Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates

Season rates · 5v5

Tale of the tape

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI← edge

edge →DET

48.0%49.0%

49.0%49.0%

2.482.38

2.692.50

1.781.73

1.942.07

0.9930.985

The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.985) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5

Form · Last 10

NYI

7-2-1

+5 GD · 1d rest

DET

5-4-1

-4 GD · 1d rest

0.993

NYI PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

0.985

DET PDO

Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000

What decides it

Keys to the game

Things to watch

C. Talbot is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
D. Rittich is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.

Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up

Lineups

NHL box score

NYI

Expected in goal

D. Rittich

back-to-back.917 last start

Backup Ilya Sorokin · +25.3 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

DET

Expected in goal

C. Talbot

back-to-back.909 last start

Backup John Gibson · +11.7 GSAx this season

Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.

No completed game on file for this club yet.

Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.

Computed danger · scouting

Players to watch

NHL stats API · our xG

NYI

Anders Lee9G 20A

1.20 xG/60 · 2 HD · 6.4% sh

Bo Horvat18G 10A

0.87 xG/60 · 3 HD · 12.8% sh

DET

Alex DeBrincat17G 28A

0.88 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.0% sh

Marco Kasper7G 8A

0.81 xG/60 · 1 HD · 6.1% sh

Keep going

Where to next

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